TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE ARMISTICE.
THEweary work of diplomacy, which before a war settles so little and opens so much, is to begin again. The Turks, by their bold and skilful operations against Djunis, and the Servian Militia, by their conduct in refusing to continue the con- test,—a refusal which, whatever its motive, must grievously diminish sympathy with them, though not with their cause— compelled the Russian Court to come to an abrupt decision. The news of the slaughter of the Russian soldiers before Djunis was received by all Russian officers who heard it with such expressions of grief and rage, that it was evident the excitement in the army, and perhaps in the popu- lation, would speedily become dangerous. The Russian officers felt the army degraded by defeat at the hands of men whom they regard as barbarians, and were ready to demand immediate war, while the incident was to the Russian Court itself a humiliating blow. The Czar had, as it were, been struck in the midst of negotiations. The Government re- solved therefore to act, the public were assured in the official journal of St. Petersburg that a peremptory ultimatum had been offered to the Porte, and on Tuesday General Ignatieff pre- sented it to the Grand Vizier. An armistice without conditions must be accepted within forty-eight hours, or the Russian Embassy would quit Constantinople. Whether any further con- cessions were demanded is not known, though it is reported that General Ignatieff also demanded autonomy for the Provinces ; but at all, events, the armistice was, and the Pashas at last, in presence of a distinct menace, shrank from resistance. They agreed to the armistice for two months, and hostilities have stopped, to allow the diplomatists to try and devise terms of final pacification.
This is not peace, or anything like it. The terms will be as difficult of discovery as they were three months ago, for nothing in the situation is altered, much less improved. On the one hand, Russia is in no way relieved from the task im- posed upon her by the sympathies of her people. Her protec- tion, as yet, has brought absolutely no benefit to the South Slavonians. She has not punished the atrocities committed in Bulgaria, far less prevented their inevitable repetition on the first convenient opportunity. On that aide she has accomplished as little as Lord Derby,—that is, absolutely nothing, and Livadia stands as much discredited as St. James's. She has not secured decent treatment in future for the Bosnians and Herzegovinians, or the Armenians, who are her especial protergis. but has as yet only provoked their masters into regarding them as traitors, who ought in political expediency to be savagely ground down. She has not even succeeded in protecting Servia. The Turks have defeated that State, in spite of the Russian volun- teers, and are able, but for the armistice, to march directly on Belgrade, and give up the Servians wholly to the Pashas, as victims from whom endless spoil could be obtained. Russia, in fact, has been beaten, and beaten by Mahommeda,ns, both in diplomacy and in the field ; her repre- sentations have been treated with scorn, and her troops have been slaughtered without either victory or vengeance. The Russians see all that as clearly as the rest of Europe, and the Romanoffs, to secure their prestige in Russia itself, as well as in South Slavonia, must achieve, either by war or by diplomacy, some grand and visible success, which shall wipe out the memory of three months of con- tinuous failure. If they do not, the spirit of energetic criti- cism which rises in all armies when they are beaten without fight:mg will menace the Russian throne. For the present, the Russian agonts are to try diplomacy, but it is scarcely possible that on that field thvy .flece.ed. Diplomatists never seek first of all the object to be attained, but only to obviate any changes injurious to the position of their States which the attainment of that object may by possi- bility involve. The Turks are elated with victory in the field, aware that the British Ambassador is secretly their friend, confident that Austria is jealous of Russian influence, and adepts in the art of making promises which may seem hopeful in the eyes of Western Europe. They will endea- vour to grant self-government in such a fashion that they can still tax the Provinces at will, still appoint men like Achmet .Aga as Pashas, and still maintain their garrisons in a position to overflow the villages on the first convenient opportunity. They will surrender nothing, except to force, they will be ataisted, secretly or overtly, as long as negotiation continues, by England, by Austria, and it may well be, thougli. we hope for better things, even by France. They will answer words by words, and their words will be as much smoothei- than Russian words as a Turkish pasha is smoother than a. Russian moujik. Russia *ill mike no head-way at the Council-table, whether it is placed in Brussels or Constantinople, for it is impossible in diplomacy to beat a Power which will make any promises and accept any terms that do hot in- clude the guarantees which make treaties something more than words. Russia will be compelled either to endure defeat —and anything less than the independence of Roumania and Servia, and the political autonomy of all provinces north of the Balkan, will now be discreditable defeat for her—or to wear away the two months in a dull repetition of demands which. will neither be granted, nor refused, nor made -the bases of further negotiation. The Court of Russia may, of course, accept that position and its consequences,—the loss of all future confidence in her promises among the Christian populations of European Turkey, and of all the little respect for her in Western Europe; but when her dynastic interests are considered, such a course is most improbable. She will, we believe, spend the two months in arming, and the armistice will only be a preparation for a more serious and deadly struggle, to commence with the New Year. Her armies will then be in position and her squadrons in the Mediterranean, while Greece will be as ready as she can be made to bear the part she has hitherto avoided. Meanwhile, Europe will for two months more have war hanging over her in the air, and every kind of dangerous combination and affiance will be discussed, will be believed in, and will finally break down. We see no gain in this armistice whatever, ex- cept, indeed, in this,—that it will exhaust two of the three months which must elapse before the British Parliament, meets.
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