Twelve to follow
Robin Oakley
Investment decisions don’t come easily and are all about value for money. Take the unfortunate fellow who lost his reproductive organ in an industrial accident. Having received some compensation he went to a surgeon. Could anything be done? ‘Well,’ came the reply. ‘I can do you four inches for £4,000 and pro rata after that. Perhaps you’d like to discuss it with your wife.’ A week later the man returned, looking somewhat glum. ‘Well, have you and your wife decided?’ ‘Yes, we’re going for the new kitchen.’ I hope she enjoyed the Aga. I, too, made a wrong decision at Ascot last weekend. Paul Nicholls’s Desert Quest looked superior to anything in the William Hill Hurdle. But 2–1 seemed skinny for a horse carrying 11st. 12lb. who had not raced for 204 days. I backed Caracciola, but the only question from the moment they entered the straight was how far Desert Quest would win by. The three lengths by which he beat Caracciola, with the rest spread all over Berkshire, could have been 30. Ruby Walsh never had to move. It was simply effortless.
Ebullient owner Harry Findlay, a professional gambler who won the funds to buy Desert Quest with a hefty punt on Roger Federer in the US Open, reckons him the speediest jumper of hurdles since Istabraq. Whether the 10–1 the bookmakers were offering against his chances in the Champion Hurdle next March represents good value is doubtful since he must there take on the likes of Brave Inca. But his formidable trainer thinks Desert Quest could be his first serious Champion Hurdle contender. Anyway, as his owner said, this is a horse well suited to big fields in handicaps and in the hope that he will run in a few more he goes straight into my Twelve to Follow.
Cautious readers will want to know first how the Ten did on the Flat this year and the answer is: quite respectably. We show a £66.50 profit to a £10 level stake, their 40 runs between them having resulted in nine victories, five seconds and four thirds. Kevin Ryan’s sprinter Mutamared was a fine contributor with victories at 12–1 and 5–2. If only he hadn’t been beaten by just a neck at 12–1 again in the Goodwood Stewards Cup, when he was hampered.
Alfie Flits won twice, but only at odds of 5–6 and 11–10, so we didn’t make much there. But Hughie Morrison’s Prince Tamino obliged at 9–1 and 9–4. He will be worth persevering with next season. So will John Gosden’s filly Nannina who ran only in top-class races and rewarded us with a 6–1 victory at Royal Ascot. Marcus Tregoning’s Sea Land only appeared at Lingfield last week. He was second at 16–1 on his racecourse début and will win his maiden. But the big disappointment was Kenmore, who joined the David Nicholls sprinting academy from Barry Hills and managed just one second place in nine outings.
Now, with the invaluable aid of Chasers and Hurdlers 2005/06 (£66 from Timeform: www.timeform.com; tel: 01422 330540), let us consider 11 more for the winter game. With the Irish so dominant these days, I have my eye on a Grand National candidate already in the shape of Christy Roche’s Far from Trouble. He was going well when he fell in the Irish equivalent.
Our Vic has already demonstrated at Wetherby that Pond House will remain a force on the jumping scene now that David Pipe has taken over from father Martin, and I think David will do even better with Celestial Gold, an impressive Aintree winner who collected three times for him when he was training point-to-pointers.
With Jonjo O’Neill now burying the memory of two virus-blighted seasons I will add to the list the six-year-old Don’t Push it. Significantly, owner J.P. McManus turned up to watch the highly strung but talented chaser’s seasonal début at Stratford.
I like the look, too, of Robert Alner’s Magot de Grugy. From a yard which specialises in staying chasers, he had the speed to win three over hurdles and seems to act on all sorts of ground.
Nicky Richards has one of the best chasers in the country in the grey Monet’s Garden, and his Money Trix, another grey who was placed at the Cheltenham Festival, looks a fine staying novice prospect.
Philip Hobbs has already caught the headlines by winning the Cesarewitch with his grey hurdler Detroit City, but I fancy even more for the top hurdling prizes his Noble Request, who gave Desert Quest a run for the County Hurdle.
A name we will be hearing much more of is that of Evan Williams, who trains near Cardiff. The cheap purchases he has taken into the winners’ enclosure are now being supplemented by better-class horses from owners like Sir Robert Ogden. One of those is the four-year-old Backstage from France, who will start over hurdles. Watch out, too, for his mare, She’s My Native.
From last year’s list I am going to stick with Idle Talk, the novice who was second to Star de Mohaison in the Sun Alliance Chase at 33–1. Trainer Tom George thinks he will be a Grand National horse in due course. And Alan King’s yard is said to be very sweet on the novice chaser Esprit Saint.
Thoughts of the National lead naturally to the now retired Ginger McCain. But Ginger’s son Donald knows what’s what, even if he doesn’t express it as bluntly as his father, and he should do well with the promising bumper horse Sword of Damascus.
Finally, with Ireland so much in the ascendant, we should have one more from across the water. Noel Meade has Harchibald to bring back over hurdles and the promising Iktitaf, but he may do even better, I am told, with Leading Run, who was unbeaten in four bumpers.
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