5 AUGUST 1837, Page 14

TOPICS OF THE DAY.

PROBABLE RESULT OF THE ELECTION.

THERE are many points of view in which political Obstruction and Reform resemble the Church of Rome and the Reformation. One of these deserves particular notice just now. As the old re- ligion was one, so it is the nature of Obstruction to possess that strength which results from union; but Reform, whether in reli- gion or politics, having change for its very principle, begets many differences of opinion and object, and is naturally subject to the weakness which accompanies disunion. All the advantage, how- ever, is not on the side of unity. The professors of the one faith are apt to rely over much on the advantage of their inherent union, to despise the embryo Reformers, to resist disdainfully every pro- posal of change, thus provoking union as against themselves, and yet to slumber in a fancied security even when the enemy is at their gate. Whereas it is in the very nature of Reform to beget an active enthusiasm ; which, from time to time and for particular objects, produces union amongst the motley advocates of change. The natural disadvantage, therefore, of Obstruction is haughty care- lessness, while an advantage belonging to Reform is strong ex- citement. Of successful Reform, indeed, strong excitement is a necessary condition. There is no other sufficient counteraction of the differences which necessarily subsist among Reformers. The Church of Rome would still have been the only one, if the en- thusiasm of differing " heretics " had not moved them to unite against her. The Reform Bill would not have been carried but for the cry of "the Bill, the whole Bill, and nothing but the Bill," which united all classes of Reformers.

This parallel applies to men as well as opinions. In a Reform movement, as in others, very much depends upon the leaders. The Reformation would have been crushed if LUTHER had not been "the bravest of the sons of men," or if, after declaring deadly war against the Church of Rome, he had endeavoured to conciliate her. His almost superhuman courage in the first attack upon such a power, and his own uncompromising nature afterwards, begat and maintained that enthusiasm by which alone the Reformation VMS accomplished. If he had been as irresolute as Lord GREY, Rome would probably have triumphed. Lord GREY, all-powerful while he pursued a bold and decided course, became frightened, it would seem, at his own success, and even at the moment when he bad obtained ample means to establish Reform for ever, sacrificed the cause and himself in a vain attempt to conciliate those whom he had outraged. Ever since then, Reform has been going out of fashion—growing weaker and weaker, as it gradually lost the support of popular excitement.

For although Lord GREY was discarded as the leader of Re- form, and although his successor had a fair trial in that capacity, baying been vigorously supported so long as the popular excite- ment was maintained by a hope that he would honestly wage war with the Obstructives, yet he has disappointed the popular hope, and, by submitting to the Obstructive Lords, by frequently unit- ing with the Obstructives in opposition to a majority of his own supporters in the Commons, not to mention his Canada-Coercion Bill, has, at length, completed the work which Lord GREY began— has made Reform completely unfashionable, or, in other words, has thoroughly destroyed that enthusiasm by which alone differing Reformers can ever be a match for the united Obstructives.

In this general election, there has been no enthusiasm fur the principle of Reform. Here and there, for the sake of attachment to persons or of a local triumph, the Reformers have been unite4 and vigorous; but on the whole, let us repeat the very words, there has been no enthusiasm for the principle of Reform. And what is the probable result?—that the MELBOURNE Parliament will be less favourable to Lord MELBOURNE than the PEEL Par- liament was. We say less, on the assumption that the Ministerial gain in Ireland will be as great as their loss in England. For let it be well understood beforehand, that a mere prolongation of the Irish Tail—a merely numerical majority in the Commons arising from an increase in the number of Mr. O'CONNELL'S followers— will, morally speaking, add rather to the weakness of Ministers than operate in counteraction of the increased English majority against them. Great Britain has had enough of that "justice to Ire- land," of which the only practical result is the mere proposal of Irish measures in the Commons for certain rejection by the Lords,and the appointtnent of a good many Irishmen to places under Government. We do not quarrel with the Irish for being content with mere pro- posals for rejection,so that they get enough of the patronage; for we sincerely believe that this, which has been Mr. O'CONNELL'S policy

under the MELBOURNE Administration, is the very best policy for Ireland. If the Irish are satisfied, what more can be desired by them or for them ? That this is, as respects Ireland only, the best policy for Ministers also, is proved by the continually increasing strength of their party in that section of the kingdom. There, where the disposal of places is really all in all, " Reform," as Lord MULGRAVIC is called in Ireland, has not gone out of fashion. But for how much longer are the politics of England and Scotland to turn altogether upon the hinge of a merely Irish policy ? This election, we think, puts an end to the system. As respects Eng- land numerically, and the United Kingdom morally, the MEL- BOURNE Ministry will be weaker in the MELBOURNE Parliament, elected under circumstances the most favourable to them—such as their being in power, Court favour, and the King of Hanover's pro-

ceetlings—than they were in the PEEL Parliament, which wascjo. sen under eh cum stances the most favourable, with the one exception of hostile popular excitement, to the Obstructive party. Lord MEL, BOURNE has played all his trump cards, including the Queee....hu discounted all his advantages—and is worse off than before, it follows that his Irish policy, which war his sole reliance, and which had all but failed him in the PEEL Parliament, will no be sufficient to maintain him now. We put the ease this morning to an out-and-out Ministerialist, saying, "Suppose your loss in Eng. land to be as great as your gain in Ireland?" "In that case,' he replied, "the game is up." So we should think ; and we would further beg leave to remind the readers of the Spectator, that step by step in Lord MELBOURNE'S way to this catastrophe, ire have pointed out the danger, and prayed him to adopt a emelt founded on the principle that Reform cannot prosper withal popular enthusiasm.