PLANNING AND SHORTAGE
By EGBERT WHEATLEY
THIS is an account of a small farmer's experiences with price controls, and his views on the food problem resulting there- from. The price figures can be verified by the Ministry of Food, even the black-market figures. His views must be left to the judge- ment of the reader. During last winter, when he sold the bulk of his wheat crop, he held back about a ton of good wheat in the hope that the food situation would so far improve as to allow him to feed it to his younger poultry. As the food situation appeared to grow much worse instead of better, when the spring came he sold this ton, receiving for it the normal price for the period of £15 3s. 4d.
He already had some feeding-stuff coupons deposited with the corn merchant who bought his wheat ; so he was able to buy other food for his poultry to replace the wheat. For thisthe paid the normal price of £18 5s., thereby losing over £3 on the transaction, without taking into account the labour involved in moving the grain, or the fact that what he bought was worth less for his purpose than what he sold. However, it seemed to be the proper thing
[ to do in the circumstances ; so he made no demur, but not tm- aturally told the facts of the case to various acquaintances. Then e discovered that most of them, farmers or not. felt that in such onditions they would have fed the wheat to the poultry. And e thought some of them regarded him as rather a fool to sell under uch conditions.
A little later he also discovered that an inspector of the Ministry f Agriculture was in the district making discreet enquiries whether armers were indeed holding back stocks of wheat. So he con- luded that Ministry officials rather expected this to happen, and e was not surprised. Before selling his ton of wheat he had heard neighbouring farmer assert his belief that there was no such hortage of wheat as the Minister of Food represented ; a corn
rchant had told him so. At the time, our small farmer declined 0 accept this view as anv-vi----- - ^ear the truth. He thought the
Minister of Food would certainly know better than any local corn merchant. Now he is less sure. He wonders if mo,000 British farmers will sell roo,000 tons of wheat for the privilege of losing £300,000! And he wonders, too, if io,000,000 farmers in the wide and isolated spaces of Canada, United States, Australia and the Argentine will sell io,000,000 tons for anything like the same privilege!
During the past few weeks he has learnt also of the existence of a black market in grain, with prices running up to £30 a ton ; a black market made rational because the worth of grain as a stock- feed, when related to the price of livestock, milk and eggs, is much above the controlled price, so that stock-keepers can afford to pay even £30 a ton for grain and then feed it to animals profitably. He knows, too, that Ministry officials are acquainted with this. Yet the Minister of Food controls the price of the most valuable grain at about half that figure, and appears to assume that all the wheat in the land will come into Ministry's stocks in spite of it. It now seems to our little farmer that the Minister of Food is living in a fool's paradise to expect it. Moreover, what of those millions of farmers across the sea? Have they no livestock market that offers a profitable outlet for grain? He hears many of them have.
During the past few weeks he has further discovered how very few farmers in his own district are growing wheat in 1946. He knows of only two besides himself. Barley has replaced wheat almost entirely, the reason being that the controlled price of barley is about 5o per cent. above wheat. If the Minister of Agriculture wished to reduce the wheat acreage because there was a world glut of wheat, he thinks he could understand. It would be an effective way of reducing wheat supplies. But to use the method when there is urgent need for wheat makes no sense to him. Of course, he remembers there has been an acreage payment on wheat grown in this country which might raise the price, the real price, to near L18 a ton, all according to yield. But that"is still a long way from barley at, say, £23, and much further from the black market at L30. Even £5 an acre would mean a big sum to our small farmer with his forty acres of corn. Why didn t he grow barley instead of wheat? He needed the Money enough. Would his acquaintances regard this as another fool's game on his 'part? But then he has heard and read again and again that price control of wheat and, indeed, all essential commodities is absolutely essential to prevent a steep rise in the cost of living and the consequent inflation that would certainly result; so he must try to play the game, even if it seems a fool's game.
But this is his teaser now. Will it, after all, prevent famine? The prospects, he thinks, are not encouraging. Already the Minister of Food is preparing the mind of the country for greater privations. And it seems to our farmer that the Minister of Agriculture is preparing the privations, however unwittingly. And this also is how. Our small farmer has a neighbour who has received instruc- tions from the War Agricultural Committee to grow wheat in 1947. The neighbour is going to object on the ground that the land is unsuitable for wheat, but suitable for barley. It certainly is suit- able for barley. But thirty acres of barley might bring in £Soo, while the same acreage in wheat would probably not bring in L5oo, all at the controlled price. If ioo,000 British farmers can grow 3,000,000 acres of barley and receive L8o,000,000 for that, he wonders how many will grow 3,000,000 acres Of wheat and get L5o,000,000, although he knows that beer is not a suitable substitute for children's bread!
He knows this also. In the town near which he lives certain businesses are prospering exceedingly ; because so many people have so much money to spend. They cannot spend it all on food, but spend it they will, even if they must wait in a queue to do it, and then spend it on things quite inessential. And he wonders again! If they must spend their money, and even the Chancellor of the Exchequer cannot quite prevent them, why not allow them to spend it on food? He knows quite positively now how price
control of food can induce a scarcity. He thinks there is equal reason to be confident that uncontrolled prices might induce plenty. At least it seems to him worth trying to prevent famine. Even inflation would be better than starvation, or so he thinks. And he cannot suppose the Minister of Ford to thi-nk differently.
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