FROM BULLETS TO BALLOTS

William Shawcross on the new

hopes and fears in Cambodia after the election

Phnom Penh SINCE THE counting of the ballots in the Cambodian elections started last Saturday, Untac, the UN Transational Authority for Cambodia, has been issuing rolling totals of the votes so far counted. The count went much more slowly than was hoped, and the twice-daily updates of the latest figures have been agonisingly slow. But by Tuesday it seemed that the ruling People's Party would not win a majority of seats in the new Assembly.

Rumours began to circulate that army generals and the hardline communists in the administration were beginning to act to counter the election results. A group of government soldiers arrived in threatening mien at one provincial vote-counting cen- tre. The UN strengthened its defences at all of them. By Wednesday morning, with 80 per cent of the votes counted, the Peo- ple's Party had 38 per cent of the vote, and Funcinpec, the leading opposition party, had 45 per cent. Spokesmen for the regime announced that there were serious irregularities in the election. They warned that, unless it was held again in four provinces, they would not accept the results. They said they expected public insurrections — against the results. Even more ominously, they said that the army and police had been asked to take 'preven- tive measures'.

By Tuesday afternoon, there were rumours of troop movements into Phnom Penh. The successes of the election were too good to last, but not many people expected the regime to seek to destroy them so soon. Before the polls opened on Sunday, 23 May, Cambodians and UN offi- cials alike were terrified of Khmer Rouge attacks on the polling stations. Indeed, UN officials in Phnom Penh now admit that if the Khmer Rouge had killed just a couple of the foreign electoral officials or United Nations volunteers in the provinces in the weeks before the poll, all the others would have been recalled, training of the Khmer electoral staff could not have continued and the election might well have been abandoned.

Such a murder almost happened in the frontline town of Stung, in the northern province of Kompong Thom. In early may, the house of the British military observer, Major Mark Walton, was attacked in the middle of the night. He and the district electoral supervisor, a young Scottish woman named Jill Davidson, fled through a ditch filled with sewage, with the Khmer Rouge pursuing them. Their interpreter heard the Khmer Rouge say they wanted to kill her. They failed. With great courage, Davidson stayed throughout the election. Right up to the last minute, the Khmer Rouge were warning people that to vote would be suicide. The UN prepared for the worst. When a thunderstorm roared over Phnom Penh in the dark early that morn- ing, many people, including the head of the UN Mission, Yasushi Akashi, feared for a moment that they had been awoken by a Khmer Rouge bombardment. But, fortunately, the Khmer Rouge .c1Lcit not carry out their threats. They frn1 have been persuaded by their power': Thai friends that to destroy the election

would cover them in such international obloquy that they would never be allowed into any post-election government. Better to wait and hope for the victory of Funcin- pec, whose leader Prince Ranarridh had promised reconciliation with them.

Whatever the reasons, Khmer Rouge inaction demonstrated once again the suc- cess of the Paris Agreement in isolating them. By 8 o'clock on 23 May, hundreds of thousands of people were lining up at the 1,500 polling stations around the country. Suspense turned to joy.

The people's dignity, patience and good humour were moving to behold. One man, who had recently returned from ten years in a refugee camp at the Thai border, where he had learned English, said to me, 'This morning I got up at 4 a.m. I was so exhilarated. I woke my wife and we bathed the children and prayed. It is such an excit- ing day.' One woman described the heavy rain as 'holy water from heaven'. As I watched people express their choice for the first time ever, I felt privileged.

The mood of Phnom Penh was shown When Chea Sim, the hardline former Khmer Rouge who is now head of the People's Party, arrived to vote early on the first day. He was watched in silence. When Prince Ranarridh came a little later, he was given a rapturous welcome. These people were obviously desperate to reject the brutality and corruption of the regime. Last Monday we learned that Funcinpec has easily won Phnom Penh, with over 50 Per cent of the vote, to the government Party's 30 per cent.

The tension remained high, and in Provinces like Kompong Thom the Khmer Rouge continued to shell, though without great effect. As it became clear that the story was the same in almost all parts of the country — huge turnouts and ineffec- tive Khmer Rouge disruption — UN offi- cials became euphoric. The UN, which has had its share of failures here, dealt effi- ciently with the appalling logistical prob- lems of shifting ballot boxes out of polling stations along muddy rutted roads and into heavily guarded 'safe havens' every night. A remarkable 89.4 per cent of the elec- torate was able to vote.

On Saturday morning at the meeting in the Royal Palace of the Supreme National Council, Cambodia's interim governing body, Yasushi Akashi declared the elec- tions free and fair. No one dissented. But unlike Funcinpec, Prime Minister Hun Sen (Who has distinguished himself as a politi- cian but may no longer have the support of his hardline colleagues) declined to Promise that his party would accept the results regardless. The meeting was presided over by Prince Sihanouk. After a letter from Presi- dent Mitterrand, he had returned from China to be here for the elections. Now he Was lavish in his praise for the UN; his recent attacks on the 'Untacist' election were forgotten. He has also changed his mind on the Khmer Rouge: the idea of inviting them into a four-part government of 'national reconciliation' is gone — at least for now.

Let us be optimistic for a moment and assume that the present regime does accept the result of the election. A new, internationally recognised and aided gov- ernment is a vital stage in Cambodia's sal- vation, but it is only a stage. There is a lot more for Untac and the donors to do.

The first thing for which many UN offi- cials here are pressing is to announce that civil servants, the police and the armed forces of the existing administration will be paid. That is the best way of ensuring their loyalty to the transition process. The amounts we are talking about are tiny. Phnom Penh officials receive only about $10 a month, and soldiers often receive nothing because their commanders pocket their pay. In these circumstances, corrup- tion and extortion are inevitable. If all their pay were tripled, the bill would only be $9 million a month. This is a trifle com- pared with the $2 billion the UN mission here has already cost. In New York the principal donors have already met the Sec- retary-General to urge that such payments be undertaken. There are objections to using peacekeeping funds to pay for sol- diers. But there is a precedent — the UN is already paying the police in Somalia.

Assuming the best, the new Constituent Assembly will meet within days. It needs a staff — secretaries, drivers and so on. The UN is rightly going to support this. Its 120 members should have a per diem payment. Again, the costs are minimal. The Assem- bly must at once draft the new constitution — which must guarantee human rights, the rule of law and an independent judi- ciary — and choose the new government from its midst. Delay is the enemy of promise in Cambodia.

The new government will be bankrupt. There is almost no revenue. Social unrest from inflation could become very serious. A long-delayed World Bank loan needs to be rescued quickly, and the IMF is being asked to help the new government adopt stabilisation measures and make available Fund resources. Bilateral donors should accelerate assistance. They should also stop the UN pulling out some of the assets that it has installed here, like the satellite tele- phone system. Modern communications are essential to Cambodia's development.

The UN's key members who have been dealing with Cambodia need to consider an extended, smaller UN commitment after the UN's present role ends in August. Institutions must be built. There is a case for keeping some military presence for at least another year, if the new government requests it. The powers of Human Rights monitors must be strengthened despite Asian governments' attempts to restrict them.

But all of that presupposes that the hard- liners behind the more moderate Prime Minister, Hun Sen, will not destroy what the people have achieved in their vote against violence. For the last ten years, Cambodia has been torn apart by civil war between two brutal communist factions. The regime in Phnom Penh was the lesser of two evils, but ordinary people have voted to reject both groups. The hardliners in Phnom Penh must be put on notice that if they really do seek to stifle that voice and reject the election, then the world will with- draw from Cambodia, all aid will cease and their regime will be bankrupted. Then thousands of people who voted against the r6gime will join the Khmer Rouge and bloody civil war will intensify.

The prospect is horrible. I still believe that the thugs can be stopped, as the peo- ple have so movingly, even euphorically, requested with their votes.

William Shawcross is writing a report for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on the future needs of Cambodia.