Confusion reigns
Robin Oakley
Aceording to a Lithuanian lady friend of mine — well, actually, she's the only Lithuanian female I know — they have a saying in that part of the Battles which goes 'Don't drive God into a tree.' I guess that's what I was doing when backing in all seven races on a scrappy card at Kempton Park last Saturday in the hope of putting together some Epsom stake money for this weekend. Sadly the Almighty did not come to my assistance, but that will not stop me lumping on a bit more to follow my Derby bet last autumn on Snow Ridge, to be ridden by Frankie Dettori for Godolphin.
Like computer manuals, most of the Derby trials this year have been a source of confusion rather than enlightenment, Sandown's Classic Trial was won by African Dream and the Chester Vase by Red Lancer. One small problem there. Well, two small problems in each case, actually. No cojones. Both are geldings and so ineligible to run in the Derby.
The Glasgow Stakes at York was won by John Gosclen's Day Flight, who is not appearing at Epsom because his trainer is convinced that the course would not suit him. In the Predominate Stakes at Goodwood, the only horse with a Derby entry, John Dunlop's Mutahayya, trailed in fifth. The Wetherby's Blue Riband Trial Stakes, the only trial run at Epsom, was won by the Daylami colt Bull Run, who will not be running in the Derby.
In the key French warm-up for the race there was a freak result. Trainer Criquette Head-Marek said beforehand that she had been waiting 18 years for the right horse for the Derby, and thought that American Post was the one. But he only won the Poule d'Essai des Poulains because Aidan O'Brien's Antonius Pius swerved violently in the closing stages and hit the rail. Though he still runs at Epsom, American Post's jockey Richard Hughes said that day his action would not be suited by the Derby course or the likely going.
In Ireland the long-time favourite for the race, Aldan O'Brien's Yeats, has won his prep races including the Derrinstown Derby Trial at Leopardstown. In recent times that has proved an essential guide. It was won in 2000 by Sinndar, in 2001 by Galileo and in 2002 by High Chaparral, all of whom went on to win the Derby at Epsom. But Yeats did not excite anybody by his manner of winning and has had niggly problems in training, so this may not be Ireland's year.
For me, the two most striking trial victories were those by John Gosden's Percussionist in the Lingfield Derby Trial and by Sir Michael Stoute's North Light in the Dante at York. We should certainly be able to rule out Rule of Law and Let The Lion Roar, beaten that day by North Light, because none of the 100-plus horses beaten in the Dante over the past 40 years has gone on to win the Derby. Somehow the Stoute yard, successful last year with Kris Kin, have managed to prepare North Light for Epsom with a minimum of hype, but rider Kieren Fallon, who kicked on in the Dante from four furlongs out, said that day, 'On his first run of the season that was a tough ask. My horse has loads of speed. He's got everything you need with which to go into a Derby,' Fallon was also impressed with the way Percussionist won at Lingfield, pulverising a field including the useful Hazyview by ten lengths, saying he would have won by a furlong if he had not swerved violently towards the end. The bookies were less impressed, seeing Percussionist as more of a St Leger horse and one whose temperament might see him badly affected by the Derby Day buzz.
All of which leaves me to stick with Snow Ridge. No less a judge than Lester Piggott says that the 2,000 Guineas remains the best guide to the Derby. In this year's 2000 Snow Ridge, who clearly wants further than a mile, finished a fine second, staying on at the end. Marcus Tregoning, who handled the colt in his two-year-old days when he excited so many of us by the way he won the Royal Lodge Stakes at Ascot in September, said of him then, He is very exciting and the best twoyear-old I have trained.' He reckoned him a 'tremendous prospect' and must have been desperately sad when the late Arnold Weinstock's family sold him to Godolphin. Marcus, who shares the Piggott view about the value of the 2000 Guineas as a Derby trial, was impressed with Snow Ridge's trial, but not so impressed that he has been dissuaded from taking him on with the 40-1 Elshadi, who is unraced this season but who would, he says, have won a Derby trial if he could have got him to one. It is only because the big colt grew a lot over the winter that he has taken his time with him, and Marcus reckons him a decent each-way chance; so for me this year's Derby finish would be 1. Snow Ridge. 2. North Light and 3. Elshadi.
As I write, Frankie Dettori has yet to choose between Sundrop and Punctilious of the Godolphin fillies for the Oaks, although it looks as though Sheikh Mohammed has been been nudging him towards Punctilious. The form of Sundrop's second in the 1,000 Guineas under Godolphin's new No. 2 jockey Kerrin McEvoy has worked out well but the Godolphin boss says that Punctilious is 'like a lion'. Their main rivals, inevitably, come from Ballydoyle, with Aidan O'Brien's paid All Too Beautiful and Baraka. I go for Punctilious, but Baraka's 12-1 is the each-way value, certainly if the ground gets any softer. She really won the Lingfield trial as she pleased. So for the fillies it's 1. Punctilious, 2. Baraka and 3. All Too Beautiful.
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