TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE ASPECT OF AFFAIRS TO-DAY.
WE do not pretend to know the secrets of Cabinets, and no human being can be quite sure that he fully understands the currents of emotion now crossing and recrossing each other in Paris, but judging from what we hear and see, we think the following account of the situation must approxi- mate closely to the truth. The French Govern- ment, greatly to their surprise, have at last discovered from the preparations making throughout the British Empire, from the harder tone adopted by Lord Salisbury in his conversations with Baron de Courcel, and from reports of their own agents in many capitals that the British nation is in earnest, and will fight rather than surrender the Anglo-Egyptian right to dominion on the Nile. They have, therefore, reviewed the situation from the point of view of serious statesmen, and have reluctantly decided that the present moment is not pro- pitious for a declaration of war. The Army, though magnificent, could not reach either England or Egypt without a great naval battle, and the Fleet is not strong enough to ensure success in such a combat of giants. A defeat would shatter the Republic, while the war itself would lend new energy to the military party, perhaps lead to an irresistible demand for a competent Dictator. The people of France, again, as distinguished from her poli- ticians, are not eager for a war with Great Britain, which would arrest their trade and add heavily to a taxation already too severe. They would make any sacrifices for a war with Germany, which might rebuild their military prestige and restore their lost provinces, but they do not desire dominion in Central Africa, which must in the end be garrisoned by conscripts, who die or become permanent in- valids from the effects of climate. Finally, the Ministry have for the moment no hope of active assistance either from their great or little allies. The Russian Emperor seeks peace for a time ; and if he did not, would not plunge into a great war, most dangerous while the Triple Alliance is looking on' in order that France might acquire useless provinces on the Upper Nile. The Sultan, though willing enough to regain the power of taxing Egypt, and always hostile to Great Britain, never forgets that he has no fleet and that his Empire is cloven by the sea; while Menelek of Abyssinia understands the lesson of Omdur- man, and has no wish, for French advantage, to risk his brave but still tumultuous hosts upon the plain against an army possessed of Maxims. The French Government, therefore has resolved to declare Fashoda worthless, and to send therefore, Marchand and his men away, probably to seek the hospitality of King Menelek. They are, however, excessively vexed that the British have not helped them with their Assembly by an appearance of concession, they are not quite sure that the Chambers will not be irritated, and they avoid a final settlement in the lingering hope that something may turn up which will modify the British decision. They want, in fact, to avoid confessing to the world that they have made a serious mistake, and have put forward claims which they cannot support, either by argument or force.
Under these circumstances, why is Great Britain silently arming ? Out of the most obvious prudence. No one can forecast when Paris is irritated and seething with excitement what she may compel France to do. The initiative is always with her, and she may demand war, or carry through a revolution, or insist on a Government with a totally different policy from the present. She may, as she threatens, bring up the whole question of Egypt, or may offer monstrous terms to allies, or may hit upon some device so maliciously annoying that our people would bear it no longer, and would insist that, war or no war, France should be compelled to desist from her provocations. France, moreover, is not the only Power in the world. There is unrest everywhere, from the Baltic to the Philippines; England has property everywhere which other nations covet; and it is neces- sary, whenever any question becomes acute, that she should be prepared to meet any sudden event. No one who threatens her, we may rely on it, will give her an hour for tranquil mobilisation, and she is forced, therefore, all over the world, to warn her Captains, to purchase coal, to clear her ships for action, and to advise her friends, for she is not friendless, that if the clouds may disperse, they may also burst in a tornado. The country holds Lord Salisbury abso- lutely right in so preparing, and should the preparations happily prove needless, will cheerfully pay the bill. Great Britain has no war to make, but she may be compelled to accept war ; and therefore from Esquimalt to Melbourne every ship should be in readiness and every man at his post. The Government perceives that more clearly than we do, and Englishmen may, under their care, sleep. tranquilly till the riveille sounds.
There is but one thing we regret in the whole matter, and that is the decrease of friendship with France which the continued spitefulness of French politicians has succeeded in producing. We have had eighty-three years of peace with Franee, so profound, at all events upon the surface, that our people have almost forgotten that to their grand- fathers France seemed the "natural" enemy of Great Britain. They do not dread her, do not hate her, do not object to her acquisition of new and large dominions. They have seen her spread incessantly over Northern Africa with so little annoyance that they actually invited her to join in an occupation of Egypt, and were aggrieved when she left them to bear the whole burden, alone. They have borne with her menacing advance to- wards Bengal, and only inserted Burmah between that vast province and the boundaries of the Empire which France is building in Indo-China. They allowed her to take Mada- gascar, which lies right opposite our own South African possessions, and could have been defended by sea, and they would see her in possession of Morocco to-morrow, Tangier excepted, without a qualm. British statesmen have in that long period of quiet once or twice grown restless; but the nation has never moved, has never until to-day thought seriously of war, has never grudged France her successes enough to be even angry. It is not until her statesmen have been tortured almost into fever. by petty insults all over the world ; until France, by pre- cipitating herself into our sphere of action, has proclaimed her inner hostility ; until every concession has been accepted as proof that any aggression would be tolerated, that our countrymen have shown the smallest disposition to revive the old habit of regarding France as a possible enemy. They have, however, now been roughly awakened, from a dream of friendship, and for years to come all French action will be watched with the sleepless suspicion justified at this moment by French threats. They do not wish even now to humiliate France, but they will be compelled to watch France with unrelaxing attention.. That is a great misfortune for both countries, and for civilisation; but with every desire to look im- partially at the matter, we cannot see that the mis- fortune arises from any evil-doing of ours. That France' has historic claims on Egypt may be acknowledged to the full, and were acknowledged when we asked her to join in a condominium ; but those claims surely ended, or were suspended, when she deliberately left us to do the- work of reconquest and regeneration alone. It is in doing that work that our rights have arisen, and in asking us to give them up France makes an unreasonable claim which the weakest of nations would resist. Fashoda is a " pestilential swamp " worth by itself less than nothing,. but in making a claim to it the French Government knew that they claimed that France, and not England, should have a free hand on the Upper Nile. They say now that they only wanted an "outlet on the Nile ; " but they are able men, and that description of their object discredits" their ability. They have not risked setting the world on fire in order to acquire a trade privilege which is theirs already without asking. Who dreams of preventing their getting the whole trade of the Nile—or of the Thames—if their traders have the capital and the cleverness to do it P All British markets are open to all mankind without. any "negotiations."
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