TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE SURRENDER OF BULGARIA AND ITS SEQUELS. THE capitulation of Bulgaria is the most startling and obvious sign yet given to that part of the world which is unable to read more subtle indications that the power of the Central Alliance is crumbling into ruin. The Bulgarian surrender is most gratifying from 'every point of view— military, moral, political. Bulgaria, under the misdirection of that sinister figure, King Ferdinand, had been forced into a policy of intense cynicism, and now she not only knows but acknowledges that cynicism at long last is always over- taken by Nemesis. The surrender was overtly surprising and sudden, but there is no doubt that the events which led up to it had been developing for some time. King Ferdinand and those Bulgarian leaders who brought their country into the war measured friendship entirely by the promises of aggrandisement and by the material help which were offered to them. So long as Germany could plausibly continue to make promises and could actually send German troops to Macedonia, she was the friend of the Bulgarian leaders, so far as such men can have friends. But there came a time when German promises no longer even looked plausible, and when she glumly and sullenly refused to send any more troops. Then and there the friendship ceased. We know the rest. Yet even when the course of events is understood the outward change is none the less dramatic. It was only a month ago that King Ludwig of Bavaria visited Sofia and was informed that Bulgaria was the unshakable ally of Germany.
The new leaders of Bulgaria have behaved wisely in throwing themselves on the mercy of the Entente. They know, and they have good reason for knowing, that they will be treated with justice ; and, after all, even if Bulgaria had won the most resounding victories in this war, she could not have done better than earn justice. In the new order of the world which is arising, the State that wishes to enjoy more than justice-- that is to say, favours for herself that are grievances to her neighbours—will be a foreign ingredient in the whole inter- national polity, and can hope for neither prosperity nor security. But while we say that Bulgaria has done wisely, and will certainly receive justice, we must not forget that justice will require that she shall pay some inevitable penalties for her most grave offences. The Allies have granted her an armistice, but they have not yet made peace with her, and they are not at all anxious to make peace with her except on terms that shall be right and considerate to the whole world, and particularly to Bulgaria's neighbours. The hideous wrongs that Serbia has suffered, and the miseries which have been endured by the Greek people owing to the machinations of ex-King Constantine and his pro-German Tamarind, have first to be righted and redressed. When Bulgaria has paid the proper forfeit for her considerable share in inflicting these wrongs and miseries, we can proceed to the more agreeable task of Setting her on her feet again in proportion to the guarantees she can give of good behaviour. Whether she will ever be able to behave honestly as a nation with such a man as King Ferdinand to rule over her we do not know. It seems contrary to Nature to expect the reform of this Mammon-serving person. But if the people of Bulgaria choose to keep him, we can say nothing more on this subject at present. If they impose a handicap on themselves, they must ride their race under that disadvantage.
The changes brought about in the military situation by the Bulgarian surrender are obvious enough. Some three hundred thousand fighting men have been lost to the Central Alliance, and a new front—the South Austrian front—has been created for Germany and Austria to defend. It is still too early to say what it is possible for either side to do on this front —whether the Serbians, British, French, Italians, and Greeks in Macedonia are strong enough to press hard upon it without in any way committing the error of drawing upon the strength of the Allies in France and Flanders, or whether the Germans and Austrians will try to defend it by an offensive defence far in advance of it, or will fall back somewhere near the actual line itself. It is said by some persons that there is still a strong pro-German military party in Bulgaria, but for our own part we doubt this. Possibly there are a hundred thou- sand Germans and Austrians still in Bulgaria. But the principal point is that Germany can really do nothing to retrieve her Balkan disaster, although she talks freely and confidently in her Press of "restoring the situation," without sending fresh troops, and a good many of them, to that theatre. But it is plain that Germany cannot find these fresh troops. She cannot spare a single man from the Western Front. Formerly she was able to spare plenty, as for example for the purpose of crushing Rumania, 'but—as military periods are reckoned—that was long ago. Another great change made by the capitulation of Bulgaria is that the whole of Germany's Eastern dream is shrivelling in the daylight of facts. Bulgaria has been aptly called the " corridor ' State. The grandiose scheme for a great trade and military route from the North Sea to India is shattered. A long and important section of the line has suddenly been blown up. Yet another visible result of Bulgarian action is that Turkey is isolated from her great patron. Incidentally this means that the Black Sea will become gradually more accessible, and before long, as we hope and believe, entirely open, to the Allies. By way of the Black Sea we shall have a much better and shorter means of access to Russia and Rumania than the White Sea or the Pacific approaches. It is a problem for the Germans whether they can draw upon any of Marshal von Mackensen's few divisions in Rumania to try to "restore the situation" in Bulgaria. It is really a matter of indifferenee to the Allies whether these few divisions are moved or not. There are already cheerful signs of military restlessness on the part of the Rumanian people, and if the Mackensen divisions stay in Rumania to sit on the head of the nation, they are immobilized for all other purposes. If they, or any portion of them, are brought out of Rumania, the anti-German agitation in Rumania will find corresponding opportunities. The problem of "restoring the situation "is even more agonizing for Austria than for Germany. If Austria sends fresh troops to her newly exposed frontier, she must withdraw them from the Italian front. And what then! The question has only to be asked for the Austrian High Command to shudder at their own answer, whatever it may be. The great changes which have been effected in the military situation may be summed up by saying that Germany has now to make a great and decisive choice between two courses. She must either fight for the West or for the East. If she desires to dream more dreams of a great Eastern Empire, she cannot afford to go on losing thousands of men daily in France and Flanders. If, on the other hand, she decides that her case is too desperate for her to continue to indulge in Eastern speculations, she will call in as many as possible of her outlying troops, and settle down grimly and desperately to the unambitious yet naturally inspiring purpose of simply and solely "defending the Fatherland." The rulers of Germany at this moment, while contemplating the horns of this dilemma, are preparing to shift all the blame on to other shoulders by encouraging talk about democratic resvonsibility. It is impossible to find any sincerity in the Kaiser a promises of " Parliamentarization ' except the sincerity of a man who frantically desires to save his own reputation. An extra- ordinary article in Vorwarts must be read in this con- nexion. It drew a panic-stricken picture of Germany being laid waste by a merciless invader, and a double appeal was made to the nation to prepare the utmost resistance and to raise up popular leaders who could bear responsibility in such times. If this remarkable article had not served the immediate needs of the German Government, it could not have been published. The solution of Germany's military problem may be hastened if Turkey should follow Bulgaria's example within the next few days. It must be admitted that at first sight Turkey seems to have nothing to gain by surrendering. It is true that she is cut off from her present friends, but by surrender she would not make any new friends. She has forfeited all claims. On the other hand, Enver Pasha, whose personal fortunes are wrapped up with Germany, is not the only person who counts in Turkey. Talaat is a powerful man, and the Sultan himself is showing more independence than he was suspected of possessing. Our expectation is that the British, Wench, and American successes on the Western Front will settle the question for Germany before her painful ratiocination is complete. Within a short time Turkey will probably be out of the war ; Germany will leave the Eastern dream to take care of itself, and will settle down—because she can do nothing else, and because she has no men for any other purpose—to try to hold the gates of Germany. It will be found undeniable in the end that the freedom of the East has been won by the brilliant strokes of Marshal loch and Sir Douglas Haig in the West.
Previous page
