THE WAR SURVEYED : THE NIGHT RAID PROBLEM
By STRATEGICUS
THE continuing success in Greece and the Mediterranean has so encouragingly proved that we have turned the corner that we can afford to look at our disadvantages in the face. Two of these stand out, and it is natural that we should be more aware of them now: the appreciation of strain is the characteristic of convalescence. The German blockade has certainly secured some success. It was stated, the other night, that the average sinkings in the early months of the war were about zo,000 tons per week, and the figure has risen to 6o,000 since the conclusion of the May campaign. The difference be- tween these two figures need not be emphasised; nor is it necessary to point out that, if the average is not brought down, the yearly loss of tonnage will reach a considerablefigure. It would not necessarily appreciably affect our effort in the widespread field of the war, much less our ability to continue almost indefi- nitely a reasonable standard of life. The danger is that it should increase at a time when transport is so vitally needed for the re- inforcement of the Near Eastern front as well as the front in this country.
This problem, however, is a comparatively light one; and, if we could depend more upon American building, it could be reduced to manageable limits. Germany is undoubtedly build- ing numbers of submarines; and, with the use of so many near bases, we must look forward to a considerable extension of the sea campaign in the not distant future. The Navy could make use of an almost indefinite number of cruisers and destroyers; and, although our yards are building steadily, only the Americans can give us what we need in the time we need it. The Fleet Air Arm and the Mediterranean squadrons have eased the situation somewhat; but much more is required if we are to profit by the opportunities which are opening up in the Near East. There has been a distinct change in that theatre; and fortunately the better part of it should prove lasting. The reinforcement of our Army and Air Force has enabled us to breathe much more freely.
It is the problem of the night raids that causes us the more irritation. The air attack upon this country has continued without any appreciable diminution since August 8th. In those early days, indeed, we used to say that the first " large- scale bombing attacks " began on June 58th; but when the raids of August appeared the earlier ones sank into insignificance. Heavy bombing, with repeated mass-attacks, went on so steadily for two months that, between August 7th and October 6th, 2,231 German aeroplanes were brought down over and around Britain. During that period, also, night raids continued pretty steadily; but these did not attain their full violence until the Germans had begun to realise that the day raids were unprofitable for them.
Yet it is well to remember how long this air-attack has continued if we would not exaggerate its deadliness. South- ampton, for instance, appears to have been first the main objective of an air-attack on August 13th; and the Germans did not hesitate to tell the world of their tremendous success. They actually announced that they had secured " control over Dover "; and the German people were whipped up) to a state of feverish excitement by the frequent messages during the day. Yet everyone knows how slight was the military damage done on those earlier occasions; and one of the most notable features of the raids at present is the precise imprecision of their aim. There cannot be anyone anywhere, alive to the situation, who does not marvel at the military objectives which escape and continue to escape when churches, cinemas and ordinary dwell- ings are destroyed. Some of these military objectives stand up so flamboyantly and are such an eyesore that their survival seems to be a constant miracle. Indeed, it has been found feasible to suggest that the Germans have inaccurate maps. It is unnecessary to imagine any such thing. Their airmen appear to be not so well briefed, to be less well trained and to be compelled to fly so high and to be so disturbed by the barrage, even in the heights they frequent, that they do little better on very many occasions than secure a near miss_ While all this is true, and while it is most necessary to bear it in mind if we would see things in proportion, it must be admitted that the night raid constitutes one of our most serious problems. If the Germans are to continue their callous custom and drop their load of bombs on one town after another, they must in time do a vast amount of damage. Such a campaign, of course, involves the admission that their only resort is attrition; but the recognition of this fact will not contribute. any overwhelming encouragement to anyone's drooping spirits. The one point that should be marked in this connexion is that it is the slowest method of reaching the end; and, meanwhile, the Royal Air Force is nightly aiming at it more directly and damagingly.
Nevertheless, we have to mobilise all our resources to deal with the problem; and it is encouraging to remember that we have always been remarkable for invention and the • practical application of science. The physical elements of the problem do not appear to be other than simple: the factors of sound, visibility and motion and the possible disturbances in a magnetic field. So much thorough training in theoretical physics has been sown over the country that there must be hosts of reliable workers who can be turned on to the requisite research; and it is to be hoped that such men are listed. In the Great War a first-rate physicist and a fine zoologist were killed at Gallipoli.
The war must be fought with the brain as well as with the stout heart. Even if the possibilities in the night raids were not serious, it would be a grave mistake to allow them to work upon people's nerves a moment longer than necessary. But if we were happily to discover some scientific means of deal- ing with the night raider, the mere problem of producing it in the appropriate numbers would be immense. The most hope- ful means would obviously be some adaptation of the night fighter; but how to provide him with eyes seems a very in- tractable difficulty. It may be that some kind of light-bomb will sufficiently illuminate the sky to show up the aeroplanes; but unless it is enough to identify friend and enemy it will be of little use.
There is one way in which the night raider may have his wings clipped. It should not be impossible to make it at least as difficult for the Germans as for us. We know the aero- dromes from which they operate; and, although we discovered at Stavanger how difficult it is wholly to destroy an aerodrome, some scientific attention from our bombers would at least assist in driving the Germans back to their home bases. The one advantage which they possess is the number of aerodromes within short range of this country. But the British Army fought over this territory, and, with the assistance of the Dutch, Belgian and French soldiers now in England it should be quite easy to deal with the various aerodromes systemati- cally. The Germans claim to have seriously damaged some of ours; we have certainly made some of theirs useless within recent weeks. The extension of this campaign is much the most promising line of attack that can be developed at the moment.
Of one thing we can be certain. The present R.A.F. Com- mand are a body of young, alert, experienced and resolute men. They are attending to the problem with a minimum of red tape. It will remain incredible that a problem which is reducible to such simple physical elements cannot be solved. The magnetic mine seemed to defy us ; but for how long? Directly a question can be resolved into physical factors which are funda- mentally simple, however complex it may be, it should be capable of solution. In the end it may be that some elementary expedient, such as that which robbed the magnetic mine of its terrors, will be found to give results. But it is not helpful to build too much on any such rapid and complete solution ; and it is a disservice to allow rumours of any such expedient to pass into general currency. When the appropriate method of dealing with the night raider is discovered and put to practical use we shall know of it in the best way possible, by the diminution in night raids. Until then we must continue to call upon our fortitude and bear the horrors of indiscriminate bombing as best we may. If the Germans are content to leave our war- machine inappreciably affected while striking at our houses, churches and places of amusement we should have no objection. We should aim at their war-potential, and, for the rest, strive to find some expedient or collection of expedients to clip their wings.
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