The crisis that wasn't
Geoffrey Wheatcroft
Dublin On Saturday three people were shot dead in Belfast, a succession of favourites was beaten at Clonmel and Miss Dublin became Miss Ireland : an average Irish weekend. The casual observer would not have known that the country was in the grips of a `constitutional crisis', and in fact it was not : the constitution was functioning healthily despite a ferocious war of words. The Donegan-0 Dalaigh affair will fizzle out within a few weeks, but while it lasts it casts a gaudy light on the strange Irish political scene.
It must be remembered that the two main Irish political parties do not fit onto the conventional left-right spectrum, retaining as they do their origins in the bitter civil war of the Twenties. If there is a `conservative' party it is Fine Gael, the old free-staters. For nearly four years they have held office in coalition with the Labour Party, a combination whose internal strains have added to the neurotic atmosphere of Irish politics. The coalition has been held together largely by a simple desire to prevent Fianna Fail (originally de Valera's republicans) from resuming its prolonged tenure of office, but more and more by a determination to suppress IRA terrorism.
It was this determination which led to the present drama. The government added two Bills to its list of authoritarian anti-terrorist measures—one for trying terrorists in the Republic for offences committed in the United Kingdom, another for holding suspected terrorists without trial for seven days. President 0 Dalaigh referred the Bills to the Supreme Court which, with qualification, approved their constitutionality. The government had, in reality, no cause for complaint.
Mr Patrick Donegan, the volatile minister of defence, thought otherwise, and in a grotesque outburst called the President a `thundering disgrace'. The press collectively exploded, and certainly reflected public feeling. The Irish are a touchy and highlystrung people and there seems to be no one outside government circles who was not outraged at the insult. The Taioseach, Mr Cosgrave, gravely misjudged this mood, as did his colleagues. An extreme example of politicians' insensitivity came from Mr Richie Ryan, the finance minister who attempted a joke about 'thundering dis graces' at a businessmen's lunch and was heard in glacial silence.
Mr Cosgrave was partly influenced in his decision to defend Donegan by the minister's great popularity with the army, not an insignificant consideration in a country where the security forces' loyalty to the State at once is essential and cannot be taken for granted. He was no doubt affected as well by the atmosphere of extreme hostility—even mutual paranoia—between the government and the communications media. The press has been infuriated by government attempts to prevent mention of the IRA, and in turn there are members of the government who will privately maintain that there is substantially greater sympathy for the republican movement within the media than in the country at large. Strong words have flown for a fortnight in correspondence columns and editorials, mostly hostile to the government; though its defenders have included Mitire Mac Entee, otherwise Mrs Conor Cruise O'Brien, writing to the Irish Times in Irish and quoting Dante in Italian (neither language being all that familiar to the paper's readers).
With hindsight there is no doubt that Mr Cosgrave would have done much better to have sacked Mr Donegan. He could always have brought him back in six months' time, as someone cynically observed. In his predicament, he can at least be grateful that Fianna Fail have decided to propose an 'acceptable' presidential candidate in the person of Mr Patrick Hillery, the former foreign minister. If the opposition had given in to the temptation of putting forward an obvious partisan like Major Vivian de Valera, the government would have had to oppose him and would almost certainly have lost the contested election.
The Presidential resignation and election has shifted attention for the moment from other and graver problems. Fianna Fail has naturally been enjoying itself greatly, but all the same the party is in awkward shape. Mr Jack Lynch has been losing ground within the party to his nationalist right wing, and it is a fair bet that he will not be leading the party at the next general election. His successor has plenty of scope for revitalising the party. During its long years of office Fianna Fail came to display symptoms of one-party-ruleitis reminiscent of the Labour Party in north-east England. It was not unknown for substantial donors to the party fund, Taca, to find such useful benefits as planning permissions coming their way.
It was disgruntlement with an atrophied Fianna Fail as much as anything which swung the last election. It now seems possible that Mr Lynch will be replaced as leader by Mr Charles Haughey, the former minister implicated in the 1972 arms scandal when funds were misdirected to buy guns for republicans in the North.
The coalition itself is in a disarray which predates President 0 Dalaigh's resignation.
Ireland is, if possible, in an even worse way economically than the United Kingdom, suffering as it must from most of the British diseases and a few of its own besides. Infla tion is out of control, unemployment is twice the British rate. The Irish pound is linked to sterling and is dragged down with it, but there is no more talk of setting it free: an independent Irish pound might drop even faster than sterling. Moreover, where the government has acted decisively in economic matters—as in curtailing farmers tax immunity—it has courted unpopularity.
Hanging over every other dispute is the question of the North. There is not the slightest grounds for optimism as sectarian killing continues relentlessly. (It can scarcelY be thought light relief, but Mrs Drumm's murder at least produced a piece of classic meiosis from Mr Harry West, the Unionist leader: `It was very unfortunate from her point of view'.) The border issue is now shrouded with less official and unofficial cant than of old. EverY one wants reunification one day: almost no' one wants it now. Many Irishmen will concede that the British Army is doing more for them than for the people of Great Britain, who have no interest—in either sense Ulster. If the six counties followed the Lebanon into an uncontrollable spin of col lective sadism and communal slaughter it would inevitably spill over into the South, whose own forces are quite incapable 0f dealing with it. That might be the result of a British withdrawal (immediate or it might not. Few want to put it to the test. For the most part Ireland remains what it has long been : a pleasanter place to be than England. There are few signs as yet of collapse. The trains are expensive and ini frequent but they run on time. The Posta service (though not the telephones) is an example to Uruguay, Italy and Great Britain. Some things change for the better. the new mayor of Wexford is an energetic young woman, which would have been 101" probable not long ago. Some change fcll: the worse: Dublin continues to sprout buildings in the style I think of as l'ecole.d.e Poulson. And some remain the same. Crisis or not, whoever is President, whichese.! party wins the next election, Irish life Will retain its odd and pleasing nuances. I dare. say it will remain the only country la Catholic Europe where, at the racecourse, you see priests with fistfuls of moll° negotiating with the bookies.
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