Domination or Disruption?
IHE Wint/Calvocoressi axis has done a great deal to promote a saner attitude to Middle East problems in this country; and we are glad to provide a platform for the writers' views on Syria in this issue. Nevertheless, it is difficult to suppress a feeling of impatience at their conclu- sions—and, indeed, with the whole school of thought that favours the idea of some kind of Middle East Condominium of the Great Powers, Russia among them.
There is no evidence that Russia would be interested in becoming a member of what the writers call 'a reconstituted Cartel'; and if she was, it would only be for the purpose of making it unworkable. Russia has two aims in the Middle East : domination or disruption. As the rulers of Great Powers invariably overestimate their own capabilities, it is probable that of the two Russia would prefer domination; that she would welcome the chance to bring Syria, and other nations be- side, into satellitehood. But if more discreet coun- sels exist in the Kremlin the craftier approach would be simply to stay on the side-lines, en- couraging the growth of anti-Western feeling, but waiting until it is strong enough to exploit with greater chances of success against the present ruling dynasties.
True, this policy involves some risks : of wars, or of Arab opinion that might come to look with as much disfavour on Communism as it now does on the West. The Russians, therefore, may prefer to keep chaos coming again—to jostle the Middle East out of achieving any stability. And they could do this just as well as members of some spurious Condominium as they could by refus- ing to have anything to do with it. This is not to argue, of course, that they should be ignored; indeed the attempt to ignore them has been largely responsible for the present pass. But to imagine that, short of an imminent danger of a world war beginning in the Middle East, they can be induced to become keen members of any UN Development Corporation is an absurd illusion.
The other significant feature of the Wint/ Calvocoressi article is that it makes no mention of Israel. Many people, trying to work out reasonable basis for a Middle East settlenicelA would prefer to forget that Israel exists. But she does exist; it is no use talking as if she did nor and her continued strength and prosperity, it is worth remembering, are a surer safeguard for IN West than all the dollars and the development schemes, all the Condominiums and the Cadillac in Christendom.
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