7 JUNE 1946, Page 3

PEACE-TIME CONSCRIPTION

THE statement on the immediate future of the conscription system made by the Minister of Labour last week is limited to some extent in importance by the fact that the announcement applies for the moment only to the two years 1947 and 1948. That must necessarily be the case. In the bewildering uncertainty in which the world finds itself today there is no possibility of gauging the military needs of the country for any substantial period ahead. We are still living, as the White Paper on Defence issued last February conceded, in the phase of the abnormal. The assumption, both official and (what is not always quite the same thing) reasonable, is that the total strength of the forces needed at the end of 1946 will be larger than we shall permanently require. That, it is to be trusted, is of the nature of an under-statement, for if the hopes a despairing world has set on U,N.O. are not to be completely shattered the disarmament of all nations must be progressively pursued. The process may be gradual, but a very considerable reduction in the personnel as well as the equipment of all armed forces should be the ultimate result. To say that, moreover, is to speak simply in terms of the warfare of yesterday. What the demands of the warfare of tomorrow in these fields is to be no man can yet predict. As the White Paper on Defence observes, " the great strides made in the realm of science and technology, including the production of atomic bombs, cannot fail to affect the make-up of our forces."

That, necessary though it is to say it, is almost of the nature of a truism. But meanwhile there are immediate tasks for the armed forces of this country to discharge, and in order to dis- charge them it is essential to keep the forces at a certain strength. To measure tasks against strength is beyond the competence of a layman. On that the verdict of the General Staff must broadly be accepted. But it is well to realise what the extent and magnitude of our commitments, practically all of them unescapable, is today. They are officially listed as including the provision of forces to ensure the execution by Germany and Japan of the terms of sur- render ; of forces of occupation in Austria ; of forces in Venezia Giulia ; of forces in Greece ; of forces in Palestine ; of forces for the liquidation of the Japanese occupation in South-East Asia ; of forces to guarantee security and stability and to guard com- munications and bases throughout the Empire. One by one these demands will diminish, and some will disappear altogether. But the continued occupation of Germany alone will necessitate the maintenance of a far larger army than was ever thought of before 1939, and steps must be taken to ensure that it is available. Esti- mates of the numbers needed were framed last October, and revised—downwards—in February. The original figure aimed at a total of 2,233,000 trained men and women at the end of this month ; the revised figure is 1,900,000. Six months later, on December 31st, 1946, the total will have fallen to x,ioo,000. That number of men for the three services cannot in the conditions prevailing in the world today be condemned as excessive. If this conclusion is accepted the problem of providing the men and women needed must be faced. One way, of course, would be to keep the men already serving still longer with the colours, but that is rightly dismissed as indefensible. The first and compelling reason for demanding the maintenance of a steady flow of young men into the army is to facilitate the release of soldiers, sailors and airmen who have shouldered the burden far too long. On the whole the Government may be congratulated on the success of its demobilisation plans. So far 3,000,000 men and women have been released since 1945, and that number will have risen by the end of this year to 3,900,000. Even so the t,too,000 who remain will contain a substantial proportion with at least three years' service behind them, and it is the declared aim of the Government to release during 1947 all men called up before the beginning of 1944, and in 1948 all (except volunteers with a fixed term of service) called up before the end of 1946. To achieve that the young manhood of the country must be drawn on heavily. But that can only be done with the most careful discrimination. The Government, in the statement issued last week, admitted frankly that the total man-power available was insufficient to meet the triple need of maintaining adequate forces, of continuing the release of men now serving and of properly sup- plying industry, and that the problem therefore is to make the best adjustment possible in existing conditions. So far as the armed forces are concerned a great deal depends on the voluntary enlist- ment campaign now in progress. Voluntary service is preferable on every ground to conscript service, but volunteers will only come forward in time of peace if the conditions are made sufficiently attractive. The Government has shown some realisation of that not only in the matter of pay—new and improved rates come into force next month—but, what is equally important, in the matter of amenities. It is too soon to see clearly what the intake of volunteers is likely to amount to, but it will quite certainly not obviate the necessity, as regards 1947 and 1948 at any rate, for continuing the compulsory call-up of men of eighteen.

There are, it is true, many hundreds of thousands of men be- tween 18 and 3o in the country, all of whom might theoretically b° considered available for service, but in fact in the Government'c view all fit men between those ages are, or will by the end of the year be, in what is regarded as essential work—notably coal-mining, agriculture and the railway service. Reliance must, therefore, be placed on the men, or youths, of eighteen, and even of these only a limited proportion can be drawn on, for the Government has shown a wise recognition of the needs of industry and the needs of education. Apprentices, reasonably broadly defined, will be eligible for deferment till their period of training is completed, and university entrants, or men who have already begun their university course, will be allowed to enter on, or complete, their courses, though in the case of entrants in 1947 and 1948 the numbers will be limited, not by military demands, but by the capacity of the universities to find room for them. When allow- ance is made for all these deductions from the total nominally available there will remain for the armed forces an annual intake in each of the next two years of some 190,000. To them should be added, as has been said, whatever volunteers may be forth- coming, and also a contingent, possibly substantial, of women, recruited for not less than two years' voluntary service. Such will be the composition of the forces that must face whatever situations have to be faced between now and the end of 1948.

In continuing conscription on these lines the Government have taken a course to which there is no alternative. Regarding con- scription as a permanent feature of national life no decision has been taken, and Ministers cannot fairly be charged with lacking faith in U.N.O. They have, indeed, emphasised the responsibility laid on this country as a member of that organisation for maintain- ing forces which could in case of need be put at the organisation's disposal. But the hope is always present that as U.N.O. grows in authority a uniform reduction of armed forces everywhere may be practicable. Meanwhile our own armed forces must be main- tained at a level which involves a heavy drain on industry and for the individual delays seriously his entry into a trade or profession and consequently his establishment of a position that will make marriage practicable. It is true that for university students military service can be deferred till after the degree course is com- pleted, but on the long view it matters little which preliminary to a settled career comes first. It has always been the general hope that if conscription has to remain the period of service need be no longer than a year. The Government would appear not to have ruled out that possibility, for the two years which men called up in 1947 and in January, 1948, must serve tapers gradually down to eighteen months in December, 1948. There is on the face of it no reason why that should mark the limit of possible reduction, but that depends on factors that are not in the control of this country alone. This is no moment when a single country can run ahead of others in its laudable zeal for disarmament. Its first duty is to create conditions internationally in which disarmament is practicable and safe. That emphasises once more the truth that all our hopes are built on U.N.O., for in sectional alliances, serviceable though they may sometimes be in a subordinate place, there can be no basis for general confidence and stability. U.N.O. itself inspires only chastened hopes as yet, and no single nation can give it the authority it ought to wield. Mr. Bevan's formula of firmness and patience seems sometimes to be wearing very thin. But no better alternative has been devised to take its place ; and if there is to be firmness there must be sufficient visible strength to demonstrate that the firmness is no mere pose.