POLITICS
Why Mr Blair thinks Herr Schroder has the Reich stuff
BRUCE ANDERSON
Aleast in Britain, Chancellor Kohl has never had the reputation he deserves. Yet it could be argued that he is the fifth most impressive post-war European politi- cian, only surpassed by — in alphabetical order — Adenauer, de Gaulle, Franco and Thatcher. But the Left give him no credit because they regard him as a man of the Right, while the Right are naturally hostile to an architect of European unity. There is a widespread British view that he is far more a party manager than a statesman, who, despite his record term, has occupied high office without enhancing it.
It is easy to see how this dismissive judg- ment has gained credence. Herr Kohl is an outstanding party manager, and never more so than when culling potential party rivals; an unattractive quality, and one which will do his Christian Democratic party lasting damage, by depriving it of a successor generation. He has considerable platform presence, but this owes more to his size than his speeches. He has had an immense relationship with gastronomy but only an insignificant one with language. In Osnabruck last Thursday for the Lower Saxon Land elections, I watched a typical Kohl performance. He spoke for over an hour without saying anything new or coin- ing even a single striking phrase. He was campaigning, but to judge from his demeanour, Sunday's defeat will have come as no surprise. It may, however, be the harbinger of a greater defeat. Gerhard Schroder, the victorious Social Democrat who is now his party's chancellor candidate, declared that the Kohl era was coming to an end, and he is probably right. For all that, Herr Kohl is formidable in a way that Herr Schroder could never be.
Off the platform, the Chancellor is an interesting study. He has a far more expres- sive face than most photographs suggest. They only capture the strength and the gluttony, but there is also a mixture of sen- sitivity, passion, pride, fierce temper, weari- ness, intelligence and cunning, plus moral force. This is a big man, in all respects.
The longest-serving Chancellor since Bis- marck may set another record this Septem- ber. Thus far, no post-war Chancellor has been defeated at the polls; changes of gov- ernment have occurred only as a result of defections by coalition partners. But there are a number of reasons why Herr Kohl is likely to be voted out of office. At every election since 1982, the CDU vote has fallen. In 1994, it and its FDP part- ner had a majority of only ten. Since then, the two principal socio-economic changes have been higher unemployment and high- er taxes; no electoral benefits there. Back in 1994, Herr Kohl could still enjoy the after-glow of reunification. Especially in the former eastern Lander, many voters were saying 'thank you'. But with unem- ployment in the old East now at around 20 per cent, there is no longer much gratitude. There is also the normal secular trend which operates against any government that has attained longevity in office; even in cautious, self-doubting Germany, 'time for a change' is a useful political slogan and it is reinforced by the British example.
Herr Kohl, meanwhile, is older and looks it. He may have the physique to make a magnificent Wotan, but a Wotan whose powers are failing. There are rumours of health problems; he is not a young 67-year- old. He also has a weak ministerial team his own fault — while his opponent has a strong one. Above all, Herr Schroder has himself. At a moment when Herr Kohl is at his weakest, he has to confront the most dangerous opponent he has ever faced.
But that is a depressing commentary on the state of contemporary politics, for what is it that makes Herr Schroder so danger- ous? Not his grasp of the issues; he has cheerfully admitted that he knows nothing about foreign affairs, and it would be chari- table to describe his economic views as banal. Nor is it moral consistency; in the early 1980s he was a Eurosceptic opposed to the deployment of cruise missiles. But no one seems to hold that against him now, because no one thinks that there was any real conviction behind those views. He just parroted the modish opinions which helped him climb the SPD ladder. Nor has he been an impressive minister-president of Lower Saxony. He is good at appealing to public opinion, especially on crime, but there is no record of achievement. The best comparison is with Clinton as governor of Arkansas, but without Whitewater or the bimbos.
Not that he is uninterested in women, though he has better taste than Mr Clinton. A Jack-the-lad character, with a good sense of humour, especially by German stan- dards, Herr Schroder is on his third wife, dyes his hair and enjoys cigars. One previ- ous wife is bitter about being dumped and has vented her grievances; Herr Schroder merely shrugged his shoulders, and most Germans did likewise. But at least he is not going to turn himself into a preacher. That is perhaps a pity; he would have been a good television evangelist, and in that role, unlike the Chancellorship, there would be no danger of his getting out of his depth. In all other respects a mediocrity, Herr SchrOder owes his success solely to his televisual gifts. In person, he is unimpres- sive; on television, he seems charming, articulate and forceful. Between now and September, he will tell the German people that he is Herr Blair; he too can offer pain- less modernisation. The Germans do not need to choose between job creation and social solidarity: he can provide both. Nor is it easy for the CDU to refute him• The obvious means of doing so is to point out that Tony Blair has no need to make hard choices, because Margaret Thatcher and John Major did that for him, and that Germany too would have to become Thatcherite before it could be Blairite. But Herr Kohl would find that prospect at least as repugnant as Herr SchrOder does, which means that despite all his personal quali- ties, he is incapable of exposing the SPD's ultimate moral shallowness.
The French, meanwhile, are alarmed at the prospect of a change of regime in Bonn. Herr Kohl is a Catholic Rhinelander and francophile; Herr Schroder is a Protes- tant northerner, almost a Hanseatic, who is therefore suspected of anglophilia and who has made friendly noises about Tony Blair- Mr Blair, like Mussolini, will no doubt rush to the aid of the victor. The only reason why the French elite is prepared to com- promise its Gallicism in a European Union is that it regards Europe as a French jockey on a German horse. But what if the nag begins to kick; what if Herr SchrOder reverts to his Eurosceptic past? But these French anxieties are based on paranoia, not on reality. Almost the whole of German official opinion regards the euro as a fait accompli, and the Qual d!Orsai will still be able to convince Ger: many that a French alliance is the only anti- dote to war guilt. Post-Kohl, Germany will have a weak government incapable of con- fronting structural problems in the labour market. But even if, like Moses, Herr Kohl does not reach it, Euro-Germany will still be his promised land.
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