GERMANY, FRANCE, AND OURSELVES.
ON May 1st a balance of £600,000,000 in gold was due from Germany. She did not pay ; she has there- fore defaulted and there can no longer be any question whether the Allies are acting within the law in applying pressure. When the Allies occupied more German towns before the appointed date of May 1st, it was complained that they were violating the Treaty. We did not join in that complaint because it seemed plain to us that the Treaty contained provisions under which the Allies were authorized to take any action they pleased at any time they pleased if they thought it necessary. However that may be, there is no longer, as we said, any question of illegality. The real question is not, Are we acting lawfully I but, Are we acting wisely ? We will briefly state the present position. The Allies are demanding £6,600,000,000, at present values, as reparation, tha tamount having been fixed by the Repara- tions Commission. Here again the Allies are behaving with strict legality, for the Treaty provided that the total indemnity to be paid by Germany was to be named by the Reparations Committee by May 1st. This new figure takes the place of the figures proposed both at the Boulogne Conference and at the Paris Conference. At Boulogne it was proposed that Germany should pay a capital sum of 15,000,000;000, and at Paris it was proposed that the Germans should pay £11,500,000,000 spread over 42 years, which would be equivalent to £5,500,000,000 at present values. The Paris 'proposal included a 12 per cent. tax on German exports. Under the present and latest proposal Germany is required to pay a 25 per cent. tax on exports. The main sum is to be liquidated by annual payments of /100000,000. German bonds are to be issued for the purpose of capitalizing the reparations ; these bonds will bear 5 per cent. interest, and 1 per cent. is to be provided for a sinking fund. Will the plan work ? No man can say ; one cannot do more than express hopes and doubts in the same breath. It may be a fortunate or an unfortunate fact, according as it is used or as cir- cumstances direct, that the Treaty of Versailles provides for the postponement of payments by Germany for good cause shown. Anyhow, Germany must formally accept the latest decision. Otherwise the Ruhr Valley will be occupied and there will also be naval action—of what kind we do not yet know, as we write on Thursday before Mr. Lloyd George makes his promised statement in the House of Commons.
The real object to aim at in dealing with Germany is to set her trade going full steam ahead. That will bring the greatest degree of restoration to all Europe, including ourselves.. At present British traders find that their dealings with Germany are paralysed—the conditions are so unsettled, and the impediments put in the way of trade by the establishment of the Allied Custom Houses in the Rhine towns are so great. Unhappily, there is a tendency among Frenchmen when we Englishmen talk about the injury to trade—and trade, after all, is far more important than any problematical indemnity—to speak of us as though we were crass materialists. They, by contrast, are a kind of spiritual idealists with souls far above sordid considerations. Translated into practical terms the French ideal means that Germany should be prevented from recovering in order that France may be safe. The British doctrine is, roughly, that unless Germany is helped to recover nobody else will recover, and also that unless she recovers she will be a centre of disaffection and the world will never be safe.
From our British point of view we are bound to conclude that the occupation of the Ruhr Valley would be a great evil. We do not, of course, rule it out, for if the Germans behave foolishly enough, it may be absolutely necessary. Expensive though such strong action may be, we cannot allow the Peace Treaty to be torn up. We sincerely hope, however, that there will be no further military or naval measures till they are proved necessary beyond a shadow of doubt. The French, on the other hand, evidently want to take strong action sooner rather than later. They want to take it on its merits. They would have liked to advance further into Germany, in accordance with the strict letter of the Treaty, without giving Germany any warning. We do not believe that most Frenchmen want perman- ently to occupy, in other words to annex German territory, but their haste and eagerness to act give an excuse to those who say that that is what they desire. The results of the 60 per cent. tax on German exports which the Allies imposed as a special penal measure when Germany rejected the Reparation terms laid before her recently in London ought to be enough to make anyone mistrust schemes for obtaining money by force while other means are avail- able. The yield from the special tax has been the stately sum of £3,0001 Such a contribution is derisory when we are talking of hundreds and thousands of millions.
We write thus not out of friendliness for Germany, as we would like to see her punished in proportion to her crimes, but because we want to see a practical and rational policy adopted. It is all a matter of business ; and we venture to think that Englishmen are on the whole better men of business than Frenchmen. We should be surprised to hear that the Foreign Office believes that the latest plans are wise, but in foreign affairs Mr. Lloyd George has apparently taken to•.aoting without reference to the Foreign Office. What is wanted is a final settlement which will show every man in every nation where he stands. We require the touch that composes, not the touch which, under the name of peace, presents an imitation of war.
There have been reports that Germany has been trying to bring the United States into the negotiations. Well, why not ? No doubt Germany has hoped to do this in order to divide the Allies, but Germany can generally be trusted to misjudge a situation, and it is much more likely that if America came into the negotiations in good earnest she would perform the office of honest broker. If so, there would be a double benefit. America would not only have helped' to solve the immediate difficulty, but she would have more than ever committed herself to that association of nations which will never signify any- thing until she is one of the principal members.
Previous page
