TOPICS OF TAR DAY.
THE AUSTRIAN NOTE.
Tr HAT Austria should take a prominent part in settling the affairs of Turkey is natural enough. The "Eastern Question," theoretical for Germany, and not vital even for Russia, which needs the neutralisation of the Bosphorus much more than any addition of territory, is for Austro-Hungary matter of life and death. With the mouths of the Danube in powerful and hostile hands, Austria could scarcely exist, while any serious uprising of the Turkish Slays would menace or destroy the supremacy of the Magyars in Hungary, where they form barely one-third of the total population. In any Turkish complication, therefore, the Austrian Government comes to the front, and Europe, Russia perhaps excepted, is not unwilling that she should do so. Germany would gladly see the Hapsburgs loosening their hold on their German subjects, by spreading themselves east- ward ; France is not opposed to the aggrandisement of a Power which has suffered much from Germany ; England needs an ally with armies in Eastern Europe; and all alike perceive that Austria can, by a short march, occupy Turkish provinces which no other Power could reach without expensive ex- peditions. Count Andrassy, therefore, is willingly allowed an initiative in proposals for pacifying Turkey, and becomes at Constantinople a kind of speaking-trumpet for Western and Central Europe. Unfortunately, however, circumstances pre- vent him from taking advantage of his fortunate position. He is willing to restrain Turkey, and willing also to befriend the unhappy populations of the Turkish provinces ; but he is not willing to run the risk of war with Turkey, and is most disin- clined to assist in creating a strong " South-Slavon " State. Consequently, he is obliged to make all his proposals small, and run the risk of offending the Porte without in any degree satis- fying the Slays. His Note, if it is at all correctly described in journals which seem to be inspired, is a very feeble affair, except as an official condemnation of the Turkish Government. He acknowledges that the Rayahs of Bosnia and the Herzego- vina are without the most elementary rights of European popu- lations, and requests the Sultan to concede them ; but he suggests no method by which the Sultan, if he accepts the Note, can be prevented from breaking -his promises, or by which the insurgents can be induced to believe that the fox, for all his fine words, will not eat the chickens. Count Andrassy demands, it is stated, that civil equality shall be established between the Mussulmans and Christians ; that the administration of justice shall be just, the present tribunals being replaced by honest Courts ; that the taxes shall be fairly levied, and a portion kept in the provinces for local expenditure; and that a mixed Commis- sion of Mussulmans and Christians shall be appointed, to see all these great principles fairly carried out. Those proposals are excellent in intention, and will doubtless be accepted by the Pashas, who would promise anybody Paradise if they were pressed enough, but where is the guarantee that, when accepted, they will be carried out? They certainly will not carry out themselves. The equality of Christian and Mussul- man is a mere dream, while the Koran is law in all questions between the two religions, and the armed caste insists that the Judges shall disbelieve the evidence of the unarmed caste, and the final appeal is to Constantinople, where Mussulmans are supreme. The justest principles of taxation are useless while the armed Mussulmans collect the taxes from the unarmed Christian; and are themselves subject to menac:ng orders from Constantinople to send up money,—orders which will be all the more severe if, as reported, one-fourth of the revenue is to remain within the province. Constantinople will meet that by adding 25 per cent. to its usual demand. The mixed Commission, no doubt, is to see that these breaches of faith do not occur, but who is to appoint the mixed Com- mission The Sultan? Then every Mussulman will be selected for his "loyalty," and every Christian for his subservi- ence, and the Rayahs will have gained nothing, except the right of being perpetually cast in damages by a nominally im- partial tribunal. The Powers? Then Turkish authority ceases, except for the exaction of three-fourths of the whole revenue to be sent, practically as a tribute, to Constantinople. The appointment by the Powers of a Governor liable only to pay tribute would be a far simpler method of administration, and far more satisfactory in the end to both parties. By popular election ? Then Mussulmans and Christians have another reason for beginning a civil war, the Mussulmans to pre- vent their being overborne by numbers, and the Christians to prevent the elections being vitiated by terror. There will be, be it observed, under these proposals, no army present capable. of holding both parties down till the new scheme has had fair- play. The Turks have not the means of maintaining such an army, even if,they had the power to prevent outrages by their Mohammedsa and Asiatic soldiery ; Austrian troops are not admitted to secure order, and the province is not permitted to arm its own Militia. The reforms, in fact, like all Turkish. reforms, would be found to be words, and even if the insur- gents accepted them, the war a outrance would only be post- poned for a short time.
It is difficult to believe that Count Andrassy does not per- ceive this, or that he is actuated by any desire except to postpone the commencement of the great straggle for as long a time as he can. He may, of course, succeed, for all the Powers of Eastern Europe have their own reasons for delay. The Russian Army is not quite ready, and the astute old Chancellor, Prince Gortschakoff, is probably not half so certain of the intentions of Germany as his master thinks it politic to assume to be. Austriahas every reason to desire peace, to keep her finances straight and let her wealth increase, and diminish the tension always existing between the Magyar and Slav populations of her Eastern provinces. Turkey could not be in a worse position, to fight than now, with her provinces in disorder, her Treasury bankrupt, and her ruler a weak voluptuary, who ought not to be called extravagant, because he has not the slightest ide& either of his expenditure or his resources. All three woul& like very much to postpone everything, but there are three other factors in the calculation. It is by no means clear that Prince Bismarck desires a postponement be- yond the spring. We do not pretend to understand his designs, but the interest of Germany in aggrandising Austria towards the East is very clear, and so is its interest in occupying the Russian Government, and the interest of Germany counts for a good deal with the German Chancellor. It is by no means clear that the Christians of Turkey desire a postpone- ment which would hand them over for a year or two to their ancient oppressors, the Mussulman landowners, and their excited foes, the Mussulman officials, for a prey and a spoiL Unless there is an army in the provinces able and willing to maintain order, the position of the Christians will be so in.- tolerable that fighting, or emigration, or flight into the moun- tains may easily seem preferable. And finally, it is not clear that Montenegro desires postponement, which can give her Prince no new strength, and must burden him beyond endur- ance with a crowd of refugees whom he can neither main- tain nor expel, subject him to incessant aggravations from his Mohammedan neighbours, and leave him liable to alt those dangerous intrigues which Constantinople knows so well how to direct. If any one of those three forces refuses to sub- mit at the Austrian bidding, which, be it remembered, can only be made effectual by an occupation, which the insurgents do not dread, the insurrection will continue, and the Note- be a mere preliminary to serious operations. That is no reason why France and England should not countersign it. Let every effort to secure peace be exhausted before- war is declared. A Note proposing reforms to Turkey will do no more harm than a reading of the Eighth Com, mandment to a pirate ship, but let the statesmen, neverthe- less, remain ready for the explosion, which, even if momen- tarily postponed, is as certain as the explosion of a magazine- in which shells are perpetually falling. Nothing, as we believe,. can avert it, except the detachment of Turkish provinces, one- by one, from Turkish direct rule ; but if Count Andrassy thinks he can flood the magazine with oil, there is no particto- lar objection to that unscientific experiment The oil will no make the powder much more dangerous.
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