[To TUN EDITOR OP THR "SPECTATOR." J
hope no one will accuse me of raising an unnecessary note of alarm if I point out that the close of the Russo- Japanese War may find this country in a very unpleasant pre- dicament. You have shown much cautious wisdom in your comments on the war, but the general view of the public, taught by most of its newspapers, is that Japan will, by a series of brilliant victories, after at most two campaigns, force Russia to accept a humiliating peace, and that England, as Japan's ally, will share in the moral, and perhaps the sub- stantial, fruits of her victory.
This is a pleasing prospect, but it may fail of realisation. I have never been able to find substantial grounds for the almost universal expectation of a complete Russian defeat. Journalists are creatures of impulse and the hour, and military experts are like most experts,—utterly untrustworthy. That a great Christian Power, full of pride and resources and with her future at stake, should accept defeat from an Asiatic race without a prolonged struggle is incredible. That she should be completely defeated in the end is almost as incredible. The Japanese have certainly won the first round. The Russians, unprepared and outnumbered, have been forced to play a waiting and retreating game, but the battles have really been rearguard actions on a large scale, and Kuropatkin has probably done all along that which he intended to do. The next six months may alter the face of things. It is useless to dogmatise. The war may close in three ways,—by a Japanese victory, by a Russian victory, or by a drawn game. The last may possibly be the end; but if the war is to end in the decisive victory of one side, I should place my money on the Russian horse. Whatever hopes of a speedy victory the Japanese had two months ago, they have lost thorn now, even though they summon China to their side. The Russian armies will grow stronger every day. They are learning their lesson under the best of teachers, and they have behind them the resources of an immense Empire which has never known defeat as other Empires have known it.
If, then, Japan, weakened by constant warfare, exhausted of men and money, falls back before her dogged foe, and is in danger of more than defeat, what are we, Japan's ally, prepared to do ? Our Treaty, no doubt, compels us only to aid her if a second Power attacks her; but if it has any meaning or moral validity, we must in self-defence save the life of the country which we have acknow- ledged by that Treaty to be a necessity to us. Are we in such circumstances ready to place ourselves between Russia and her hard-pressed foe, and to accept the international complications which such action may bring about? The contingency may seem .xemote, but it is possible, and we should prepare ourselves for its advent. Things will probably shape themselves for a compro- mise, but it is mere levity to ignore the possibility of an ugly situation.
New Place, Haslentere.
[It is always wise to look at the possibilities of the future in the region of foreign affairs, though we fear that Govern- ments seldom obey this rule. It is, of course, useless to prophesy; but we cannot help expecting that the war will end like the Crimean War,—without any very decisive result. —ED. Spectator.]
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