The frightening scenario
Patrick Cosgrave
For nearly two years now I have been saying that the Conservative Party could not win an election under the leadership of Mr Heath. What amazes me about the election we have just seen is that those highly-paid Central Office advisers — mainly, by the way, outsiders, brought in from big commercial agencies, men who may never have met an actual Tory — did not see it my way. And I think it will be made clear to those men, and to Mr Heath, over the next few weeks, as the party's area meetings begin to assemble and discuss the latest disaster into which Mr Heath has led them, that the Conservative Party at its grass roots approves neither being taken for a ride — as they were by the whole ethos of the campaign — nor of a man who cheats at cards, as Mr Heath did by trying to stay on at No 10. By far the best result for the party would now be Mr Heath's resignation as Leader.
The logic of this argument can be seen merely by looking ahead a few months. In all likelihood there will have to be another general election this year. In what case would Mr Heath then be as Conservative leader? It depends, of course, on Mr Wilson's tactics; and 'my own conviction is that the fulcrum of those tactics would be European policy. Mr Wilson is committed to the immediate refusal of the food price increases dictated by the next round of the Common Agricultural Policy. He would refuse, surely, to implement those increases, and that would be popular. He would then, equally surely, continue to refuse to take any further steps towards our integration with Europe. The nationalisation programme would probably have to be abandoned, and all those schemes for massive public expenditure would, likewise, have to be at least delayed, but the presence of Mr Callaghan, Mr Shore and Mr Foot in a Labour government would ensure that, the European policy as laid down in the manifesto would be implemented. After some time, renegotiation having taken place, a Labour government would, I believe, present to the House of Commons a Bill to provide for a referendum on the new terms. Everybody — European and anti-European alike — knows that, if such a referendum took place, the people would vote against the EEC entanglement. Mr Heath, however, is devoutly committed to membership of the EEC; and so are the Liberals. Presumably they would attempt to — they would hate to attempt to — bring Labour down on that issue. Immediately thereafter Mr Wilson would go to the country with the argument that the other two major parties had voted against his desire to give the people a say in their future. He would be unbeatable, and the Tory Party would be smashed at the polls.
Merely to write down this scenario shows how frightening it is for Conservatives. Any leader alternative to Mr Heath could get the party off the horns of the dilemma, but Mr Heath himself could not. By his folly in calling an early election, and by his redoubled folly in fighting it the way he did, Mr Heath has given every trump card to Mr Wilson. And that is not something the Tory Party in the country readily forgives.
The Leader of the Conservative Party is in a unique political position. He is a dictator and, since 1965, an elected dictator. For the term of his leadership he has, as a private office, the splendidly endowed Central Office of the Conservative Party. The large building in Smith Square, and all the gifted people therein, work for him and for him alone. Likewise, the Research Department of the Party, housed in two buildings in Old Queen Street, and staffed, usually, both by longstanding servants of the party and by the brightest young graduates who can be attracted to it, also are immediately responsive to his every wish. Members of the party in the House of Commons disobey their Leader only with the greatest reluctance. The one thing this magnificent machine, supported as it is by a devoted army of followers around the country, asks of its Leader is success at the polls; and that Mr Heath has signally failed to deliver.
Most enemies and critics of the Conservative Party like to stress the ruthlessness with which that party handles failed leaders: Richard Leonard, the political expert and former Labour MP, observed to me the other day, in what amounts to a widely accepted political generalisation, that the Tories were far more ruthless in this respect than any other political party he knew. But to emphasise this is to miss the real essence of the matter. The fact is that no party gives its leader more loyalty or more opportunity than the Conservative. Loyalty, it has been widely observed, is the secret Tory weapon. Everything that can be done for the Leader is done. Every support he needs is ungrudgingly given. As Churchill once wrote, "The loyalties which centre upon number one are enormous. If he trips he must be sustained. If he makes mistakes they must be covered. If he sleeps he must not be wantonly disturbed. If he is no good he must be pole-axed."
All this is, no doubt, very brutal; but without some such practical philosophy the Conservative Party could not have been so successful in its acquistion and retention of power. The grass roots, even, of the party are far more professional in this respect than the so-called media experts with which Mr Heath has chosen to surround himself. A man is given a decent run and every facility and, if he does not succeed, he is fired. The time has come to fire Mr Heath, and not for these
Apart from being a magnificent political ' machine the Tory Party, like any other, is all alliance of people of like mind, with strong feelings about society and their country. vit,11 strong ambitions for both, and with equal,'Y strong fears. For some years now that Per`i has followed Mr Heath down contradictor,: paths, done everything he asked, sustained him through long periods of ineffectiveness' when it appeared that the last thing the indan, was ever likely to do was win an election. has been patriotic and unpatriotic by turas' for one policy and then against, with nee trend and then opposing it. All this time there has been very little Or' muring from the ranks, The party in country, for example, has always loved S" Alec Douglas-Home and Mr Powell far 111°11, than it has loved Mr Heath. But Mr Heath git the appointed Leader, and he was given all 0' loyalty, reservations about him having henellio swallowed. When he won the election of la', it seemed that all this sacrifice was justifieu, and he was treated to something like achlla, tion. He then proceeded to destroy anothe' dearly cherished Tory idea. This is the idea that the Tory Party is th.e competent party. "Socialists may scheme Ott schemes," said lain Macleod once, "Libeca'' may dream their dreams. But we have work t° do." This is Tory pragmatism in shining 3.1 mour, all the equipment of a splendid rhetoric brought to bear in support of a fundamentalW mundane idea. Now, after three and a ha years, the' myth of competence is in a terribler mess. Nothing to which the Prime Mintat,,e, has set his hand has seemed to work, and plea that there have been events and eeecurrences outside the control of any P,ci;111,,h Minister or any Cabinet is not one to wnt the party has ever given very long stl.c, Ideological Tories — those who like the a', of free enterprise, who read the publication(); I of the Institute of Economic Affairs, or yearn for a muscular, stand-on-your-oW11:, two-feet economic policy — were enthusiantlr'' about Mr Heath in 1970 and have since beee bitterly disappointed by him. But, far rnc),,r important than them are the ordinary ran".;, and-file Tories who expect their party to bet!, power most of the time, and expect it to shevi a decent competence, a reasonable levelL success, while it enjoys that power. T"'"e people do not dream many dreams, or schenle many schemes, but they expect a reasonab..,', return on their emotional and practical vestment in a leader. All this has been delve'
them. •
The Heath experiment is over. It is pa•clful now, to turn over the pages of the speech the 1970 conference which announced "Id imminence of a quiet revolution which W°I1 change the direction of the country's histl That was a moment when the Tory par c raised its sights, looked forward to someth1.114 bigger than it normally expects from I'd leaders, and decided to march down the re,ah. to Tory revolution with Mr Edward HeaLi How greatly fallen is the man who made speech, seen, at the weekend, stubbornlY.,10, mured behind the door of Number 10 P",0 ing Street scrabbling desperately to hold on :4 his ministerial motor car and his retintlile.cli civil servants. I can see no ground on wt.:0 the Conservative Party which has given burn so much — which, indeed, has given ,as everything it could give, and more than been asked to give any leader in the Past af should want to retain his services. Its sense. a fair play was outraged by his clinging to 0ff,le.s and privilege. Its sense of its own identity fri'd been offended by his reversals of policY. h it its sense of the decent competence wilic his leaders owe it has been outraged bY fOr failure. No: just as there was no waYe is Heath could or can win an election, theran, no way in which he can continue in the, the cient and honourable office of Leader 0' Conservative Party.
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