Political commentary
The triumph of Roy
Stephen Fay
Roy Jenkins arrived at the Social Democrats' headquarters last Friday, to hear of his victory in the Party's leader- ship election, looking uncommonly smooth and pink. The blood was barely dry from a nick at the juncture of his first and second chins, suggesting that the great man had shaved especially for the occasion. He was perfectly willing to be filmed wading through a mob of jostling hacks and to murmur 'a few words for the evening televi- sion news programmes, but he would not actually answer questions from the mob un- til the following morning. Staggering Jenkins's public appearances over two days like this was an admirable example of the Social Democrats' taste for having theircake and eating it.
Jenkins was gracious about David Owen, who had done well, polling 20,000 of the 46,000 votes, maybe 5,000 or so more than he would have done three months earlier. That was the Falklands Factor, a phenomenon Jenkins devoutly wishes will soon disappear from British politics. The new leader was never a member of the War Party, though his exact views can only be inferred from remarks such as: 'David's got a Plymouth constituency, you know.' When Jenkins did eventually submit to questioning by reporters on Saturday morn- ing the political agenda was the familiar one: the Alliance, unemployment and Tony Benn. The most interesting feature of the performance was the way Jenkins kneaded his fingers to hide the fact that they were shaking nervously. That early-morning unease had dissipated by the time he went to speak and mingle at a meeting of 200 Social Democratic women. They were ' mostly young, and uniformly well-groomed. They might not all be nice, but they looked it the sort of party workers who will be welcome, but not necessarily persuasive, on the doorsteps of the Labour -Ind Tory working class voters Jenkins knows must be converted to the Social Democrats at the next general election if his dreams of Government are to be fulfilled.
A convenient simplification of the leader- ship election is that it was a victory for the liberal wing of the SDP over its labour wing, and in Jenkins's speech to the ladies one set of liberal code-words was received with particular enthusiasm. Talking about `giving the unions back to their members', Jenkins exposed one theme of his leader- ship: radical and responsible union- bashing. But this could be another case of the SDP trying to have its cake and eat it. Even after the Falklands Factor has been eliminated, the Owen vote reveals the strength of the Party's centre-left. That large minority includes most of the trade unionists who have been tempted to join, and they will be less responsive to an anti- union campaign than the leader and his female audience. And since those trade unionists ought to be effective proselytizers for social democracy, their views cannot be deftly overlooked.
Bill Rogers, who is rather better in touch with this strand of the membership than is Jenkins, notes that Social Democrat trade unionists are characteristically conventional and old-fashioned. Their fervour is applied to rupturing the links between the unions and the Labour Party. They might agree that no good case can be made against com- pulsory secret ballots before strikes (though they would no doubt contend that imposed ballots can provoke union members into supporting their leaders), but the popular centrist opposition to the closed shop and secondary picketing is not shared by the Social Democrat trade unionists. Unlike a majority of SDP MP's, they have no taste for Norman Tebbit's Bill.
An accommodation between the majority of the SDP members, who do not doubt that the unions abuse their power, and the minority who believe they are unjustly abused will not be easily achieved. A collec- tive leadership of the Gang of Four tended to camouflage these divisions. With the election of Jenkins, dissent will become more conspicuous. The SDP is not going to be an easy party to lead.
Still, it would be a churl who begrudged Jenkins the job. Of course, politicians must begin election campaigns convinced they can win, but Jenkins's fortitude has been severely tested since he ran in Warrington last July. For years it seemed that Jenkins expected honours to be laid upbn him because of intrinsic merit; that was the origin of the portrait of him as an idle, claret-swilling toff, and it was profoundly distasteful to politicians who had fought for their place. But three elections in a year, two of them won, do contradict that opi- nion of Jenkins. On Friday his face was so rosily suffused with the enchantment of vic- tory that no black and white caricaturist could have caught it. He had, after all, achieved what good politicians must, and had splendidly demonstrated that he can fight and win.
'It tastes half-baked.'
That his firm intention, at least, is to go on being a winner was evident from his decision to celebrate at lunch on Saturday not with other members of the Gang, but with David Steel, for it is the Liberal leader who offers him the best prospect of political power. Although there was not supposed to be a campaign for the leader- ship, Jenkins and his cronies made it clear that a defeat for him would sabotage plans for the early choice of a leader of the Alliance, a tactic thought necessary for an effective joint campaign. The voting did demonstrate that a properly identified leader of the SDP-Liberal Alliance is the preference of most members of the SDP. The alternative — 'a little foothold on the fringe of British politics' in Jenkins's words — has been rejected. Jenkins has a thirst for something much more immediate.
Recent polls which show the Alliance floundering are casually dismissed by Jenkins's people as unrepresentative. They insist that the Alliance will be showing a potential general election vote of between 34 per cent and 37 per cent after the Party conferences at the end of October. However, even if this generous assumption is proved correct, the perverseness of our electoral system means that such a showing is still not good enough to satisfy Jenkins's ambitions.
It is a fundamental maxim of Conser- vative politics that the Tories do not win an election when the Liberals do well. So an Alliance vote of more than 30 per cent could mutilate the Tories' campaign, even after next year's constituency boundary revisions, which will help them. (The timing of the revisions is the most persuasive reason for Mrs Thatcher not calling an elec- tion this autumn.) This threat to the Prime Minister — neutralising any lingering profit from the Falklands episode — is why the Tories were more disturbed than all but the most zealous Owen supporters by the Jenkins victory. Their preference for Owen was signalled by The Times and the Economist arguing that the SDP should slug it out with Labour to become the pre- eminent party of the Left.
On Tuesday when Jenkins, exhibiting a more subdued aspect than he had done at the week-end, rose in the House of Com- mons, to be recognised by the Speaker at a humiliating seventh time of asking, his somewhat lame question to the Prime Minister was met by relentless baying from the Tory benches as well as from his former Labour colleagues. Jenkins clearly is not to be allowed to rediscover his Parliamentary form gracefully, in his own time.
Perhaps Jenkins's first best hope of win- ning again is for the Alliance to hold the balance in a hung Parliament. That is not as fantastic as the polls now suggest, and, should it happen, the SDP finally would be forced to decide what kind of cake to eat. Had David Owen been elected last week, the most probable outcome for the SDP would have been a coalition with Labour. Under Jenkins's leadership, a coalition with Mrs Thatcher seems just as possible.
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