overt war. or not, can alter the position, which is
briefly this,—that the But although we think there are signs of this hesitation, Insurgents will not yield, and that Murad must either make we do not believe that peace or war, as between the Porte them yield—which he cannot do without occupying Monte- and its local enemies, are so absolutely in the hands of negro and Servia, that is, by declaring war—or fall into the the Czar as some of our contemporaries assert, and as the general contempt of which Abdul Aziz perished.
Foreign Office is understood to believe. The insurgents in But, it is said, Servia and Montenegro will be afraid to en- Bosnia, the Herzegovina, and Bulgaria are not disposed to counter the Turkish force alone, without a civilised Power be- submit tamely, because the Czar shows symptoms of irreso- hind them. We believe that impression, which is very general, lution. They know that they have Russia with them, if not rests on an entirely erroneous impression. The Servians are its Government, that the Slavophile party is large and power- afraid of an Austrian occupation either of Bosnia or Servia ful, quite as powerful as the Administration, and that itself, but if Austria is quieted by Russian menaces, they are not the Government cannot go the length of prohibiting in the least afraid of Turkey. Rightly or wrongly, the Servian private aid to the insurgents. They know that an immense leaders, and still more strongly the Montenegrin Prince and his majority of the Servians and Montenegrins are eager for Council, believe that the forces at their disposal are a match for all war ; that an explosion of feeling may at any moment the regular troops Constantinople can provide, those troops being banish Prince Milano, and that if Turkey suffered even demoralised by the ignorance of the officers, by the want of one defeat, insurrection against the dominant caste would materiel, and above all, by the paucity of their numbers. Upon become nearly universal. It would include Bosnia, the Herze- this last point all trustworthy authorities are unanimous. The govina, Bulgaria, Albania—where Prince Nikita's influence is number of regular troops in European Turkey will be found, now supreme—Epirus, Crete, and very probably Egypt, where when the crisis arrives, to be astoundingly few. The form the Khedive is afraid of a decree abolishing his son's right of of peculation which existed under the Emperor Nicholas succession to the throne. They are not therefore deprived of in the Russian Army and under the Emperor Napoleon in hope, and nothing but despair could tempt them to submit, the French Army has risen in the Turkish Army to a gigantic without foreign guarantees for their safety, to the rule of Mus- height ; the number of paper men is incredible, and com- sulman officials eager for vengeance, secure of immunity at petent observers seriously doubt whether, throughout European Constantinople, and once more aware that the jealousies of Turkey—that is, throughout territories as large as France— Europe are more powerful than any considerations of pity or sixty thousand effectives of the regular army could be put into the good faith. They believe that to submit is to die by torture, and field. The Servians, and Montenegrins, and their allies are ready whether their belief is accurate or erroneous,—that is, whether to encounter these ; and the volunteers, or Bashi-Bazouks, who Murad V. can control Bashi-Bazouks and Beys at a distance are formidable from their numbers and their recklessness, from the capital or no, they will act on their own convictions they hope to meet with bands of insurgents, already organised, first of all. The insurrection, therefore, will go on, will be aided and shortly to be swelled by the whole population of the by its friends in Russia, Croatia, Dalmatia, and Transylvania, villages traversed by the Asiatic volunteers, whose barbarities and will continue to be secretly or openly fostered by Servia and and whose necessities alike create hostile guerrilla regiments. Montenegro. As time goes on, and very short time will suffice, The Slav leaders have agents and friends in the very heart Servia and Montenegro will find the burden of remaining of Constantinople itself, and powerful allies even on the Asiatic armed unendurable, and will be compelled to choose between side, bound to them in a common hatred of the Turks,— the alternatives of declaring war, or disarming in the face of who, it must not be forgotten, are in Europe less than four the passionate anger they have provoked in Turkey. This millions to thirteen millions of Christians, every man of whom dilemma must arise, even if Turkey continues to en- would make some sacrifice to terminate their ascendency. If dure their secret hostility, and we need not say that the Powers agree to keep the ring—and this is what the nomi- without a definite assurance of protection, neither Prince nal withdrawal of Russia would amount to—it is not fear of Milano nor Prince Nikita dare lay aside their arms, the Turks which will restrain Servia and Montenegro from while neither has power to prevent his subjects from continuing to assist the insurrection. We regard the situation, lending covert and most vexatious assistance to the in- therefore, as standing thus :—The immediate danger of war sargents. Even, therefore, if Turkey continued patient, we among the great Powers has diminished, Russia taking alarm at should regard war as nearly inevitable, and we see no reason English action ; but the danger of a real war within Turkey whatever to believe in a continuance of Turkish patience. itself, a war in which the Mussulman caste would be on one The accounts of Murad's behaviour do not warrant us in ex- side and all the Slays on the other, is more imminent than pecting either great decision or great courage in that monarch, ever. With Servia and Montenegro on one side, straining to but he is clearly surrounded by men who intend that Turkey attack Turkey openly, and the dominant party in Constanti- shall be liberated from her present ignominious position, and nople on the other, convinced that they ought to take the with scissors, or whether the Khalif exerted his legal right of TOPICS OF THE DAY. passing a secret sentence of death against a Mohammedan whose continued existence was dangerous to Islam, we shall never, perhaps, certainly know but in either case the PEACE OR WAR ? group who have carried through the Revolution are THE question of Peace or War in Eastern Europe still masters of Turkey, and among them the strongest is trembles in the balance, but upon the whole, and with the undoubtedly the Minister at War, Hussein Avni Pasha, who is reserve that Murad V. may be a more independent and original all-powerful with the soldiers, who is in favour of the ancient man than we believe him to be, the probabilities in favour of system of government mon; wisely administered, and who has war seem to us the heavier of the two. It is true that consistently advised the punishment of Servia and Montenegro. Russia appears to be drawing back at the prospect of a He believes that audacity is the best policy, and in this belief struggle. The Emperor Alexander, it must not be forgotten, he is supported by the majority of Turks in Constantinople, is until he abdicates as absolute in Russia as ever Abdul Aziz including, it is said, Young Turkey, and their leader, Midhat was in Turkey ; he is not now a man of fixed will, he dislikes Pasha. It will be nearly impossible for Murad V. to resist war, and he sees clearly that if he attacks Turkey, Austria such pressure, more especially as the new heir, his brother may either defend her, or seize provinces for herself, in Ahmed, now the eldest male of the House not on the throne, either of which cases Russia and Austria would be at would suit Turkish ideas better than himself, and there is war, and Prince Bismarck master of the situation. That not the smallest proof that he is inclined to resist it. Great would be a dangerous position for Russia, even if the confidence is felt in some quarters in the influence of the Czar could rely upon Germany coming to terms, for Ger- Ambassadors who are "friends of Turkey," but Murad V. was many would ask a great deal—nothing less than German called to the throne to resist this influence, not to succumb to Austria—or if France would heartily aid her, and either of it, and so allow the resources of the State to be wasted on a. these contingencies is exceedingly doubtful. Prince Bismarck dragging war, which, if conducted in its present fashion, can may think it more important to deliver a deadly blow to Russia lead to nothing but ever fresh demands for money and men. If than to absorb the Austrian Germans, and France will not he fulfils his" mission," he must declare war on Montenegro, willingly aid Russia while doubtful of the acquiescence or even whatever the result ; while, if he does not fulfil it, he runs neutrality of Great Britain. The Emperor Alexander may, every risk of sharing the fate of his predecessor. No amount therefore, reasonably hesitate, and finally determine to avoid of paper promises, whether the word" Constitution "is in them overt war. or not, can alter the position, which is briefly this,—that the But although we think there are signs of this hesitation, Insurgents will not yield, and that Murad must either make we do not believe that peace or war, as between the Porte them yield—which he cannot do without occupying Monte- and its local enemies, are so absolutely in the hands of negro and Servia, that is, by declaring war—or fall into the the Czar as some of our contemporaries assert, and as the general contempt of which Abdul Aziz perished. laess to use force seems to be here, and the despatch of a British fleet has only tended as yet to make the war party in Constantinople believe that Great Britain is, after all, upon the Mussulman side.
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