Liberal strength
Sir: Patrick Cosgrave has ignored two obvious facts (October. 27): Liberal support is not spread evenly across the map, and the present electoral system favours any party which gets 40 per cent locally. Twenty-five per cent overall would mean quite a few constituencies in which a party achieves 40 per cent. In Scotland alone, four seats out of 71 are held on a smaller percentage of the total poll. I am not sure about the position in England; in Wales it is much the same as here, as the Welsh also have a four-party system.
The Liberals in England have the further advantage, like the SNP in this country and Plaid Cymru in Wales, of being relatively strong in number of constituencies with a small electorate. Mr Cosgrave also seems unaware of this.
In my view, allowing for the uneven spread of support, 25 per cent for the Liberals in England would give them forty seats at least; a similar percentage for the SNP would be worth ten or twelve Scottish seats, and Plaid Cymru, still on 25 per cent, would get eight Welsh seats. The general election would then result in a draw, since Labour and the Tories appear to be incapable of capturing each other's marginals, and I cannot see either of the traditional big parties finishing sixty seats ahead of the other: a gap of twenty seats either way is much more credible on present showing. We shall have a clearer idea of the situation after the current round of by-elections. If, at that stage, the voters are not beginning to polarise, the chances are they will not revert in any large numbers to their .former allegiance, because nobody on either side is giving them any chance to do so.
I happen to be a Scottish Nationalist, but if I were an Englishman — and most UK voters are English — I would probably support whichever candidate I liked best in the constituency where I lived. It is clear that many voters are now reacting in this way. Anthony J. C. Kerr
52 Castlegate, Jedburgh, Scotland
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