Political Commentary
Whither the moderates now?
Patrick Cosgrave
Writing before this week's by-elections, and with the whole political world on the edge of its seat with nerves strung up in anticipation of the verdict of the electors of Hove, Berwick, Govan and Edinburgh .North, it seems nonetheless of the first importance to take a close look at the results of the Shadow Cabinet elections, which saw the return of Mr Jenkins to the Labour front bench, and the consequent casting of Mr Fred Peart into the outer darkness. After all, this Labour Party poll is likely to have much more influence on the party's ultimate electoral chances than the Blackpool conference of early October: the latest polls indicate that the effects on the voters of all three party conferences were short indeed in duration. Much more important will be the impact — the image, to use a shop-worn but useful concept — on the electorate of the men elected by the Parliamentary Labour Party to carry their banner, arranged in such positions as Mr Wilson chooses for them, and in competition with the new team which Mr Heath is certain shortly to construct.
The first observation to make about the Shadow Cabinet elections is that, in spite of the fact that Mr Michael Foot finished second in the list (with one more vote than he gained last year), the left were routed. The Tribune group are invariably the best organised faction at Shadow Cabinet election time, though their influence has hitherto been most notable in securing. the election of some and the defeat of others within the echelons of the left itself. This year they failed utterly to carry the influence of a left-leaning — indeed, leftlurching — conference into the ranks of the PLP. Perhaps the most able of the younger Tribuneites, indeed, Mr Eric Heffer, actually finished substantially further down the list than he did. last year.
Now, this was not wholly an unexpected outcome. The Parliamentary Labour Party is and always has been much more of a coalition than the party as a whole and, like some sensitive animal organism, appears each year to shift in its choice of leaders in order to counterbalance whatever conference has done. In recent years the PLP has been very evidently trying to create a more fruitful balance than hitherto between the warring elements of the party: thus, Mr Foot's spectacular initial arrival on the front bench was counterbalanced by his failure to attain the deputy leadership after Mr Jenkins's departure. And Mr Jenkins's return, though it was fairly easily achieved, was not allowed to happen at the expense of either Mr Wedgwood Benn or Mr Shore, the two stalwart anti-marketeers who might have fallen victim to his return to the forefront of politics.
Many of Mr Jenkins's more fanatical followers in the Labour Party — those who think of the ex-Chancellor as a sort of Galahad of modern politics — were disappointed that his resignation from the'deputy leadership was so long delayed. When it happened, it appeared to be the result of a rather petty dispute with Mr Wilson on a point of detail in Labour tactics, rather than on the grand and radical issue of the principle of British membership. In part the delay occurred because of a constitutional inability on the part of Mr Jenkins to take big and bold decisions. He is a man of small mind and big words, of hesitations rather than dashes, of attitudes rather than decisions. So he hung on to the deputy leadership as long as he could and, once he was out in the cold, his instincts began instantly to shift to the problem of getting back his place around the fire. Big lorries and the iniquities of the common agricultural policy gave him his opportunity to dip his big toe cautiously in to the murky waters of Labour's policy for renegotiation. We can be certain that, were Labour to come to power at the next general election, Mr Jenkins, who would hold high office in a new government, though he would be far less powerful than he was in Mr Wilson's last Cabinet, would not find anything done in Europe by that government a matter for another resignation.
Yet, for all his deficiencies, Mr Jenkins undoubtedly has substantial public appeal; and his presence on the front bench, mounting those generalised but highly effective attacks on the government in the composition of which he is a Master, could do a lot to modify and smooth the rather wild-eyed image of the Opposition which has been taking shape for the last couple of years. The most important consequence of his return could well be another return, that of Mr Maudling to the Conservative Cabinet. This depends also on the Prime Minister's reaction to the by-election results: but Mr Heath might well feel that Mr Maudling might be the necessary counterpoint to Mr Jenkins.
But something else happened in the Shadow Cabinet elections which must profoundly have depressed Mr Jenkins. That was the fact that Mr Crosland finished just above him in the poll, with 145 votes to the 144 which he gained. Of course, it is true that every Shadow Cabinet vote becomes a thing of thepastwhen the moment comes to choose a leader, but each such vote is nonetheless an important indication of the way. in which the pattern of Labour politics is settling down. Assuming
• that the Labour Party stays together, it cannot be long before it begins to look seriously for a leader to replace Mr Wilson who, even if he became Prime Minister again, would not be likely to stay on for more than a few years. In any event Mr Callaghan now looks too old to lead; and Mr Foot, for all the wide and deep affection in which he is held, could not lead other than a leftish rump. Of the remaining
candidates Mr Benn simply does not CO mand enough support in the Parliaments . Party, however wildly popular he is outside while Mr Prentice, who finished third in th Shadow Cabinet elections, is too cordially d. tested outside Westminster because of b stand on the Industrial Relations Act for ever an insubordinate PLP to elect him leader, es pecially considering his lack of charisma.
When the time comes Mr Benn will alm0s; certainly be • the leadership candidate the left, but is unlikely to be able to WI,11 unless the moderate vote is permanently 01 The advantage for the moderates is, of course that, since the election can take place in trvl stages, the final round can be entered WIte only one moderate candidate. When thinking and the wheeling and the dealitl.t starts, the detestation of Mr Jenkins whichi5 felt on the left is bound to weigh heavily moderate minds: in any political body, arl particularly in a major British political party. there is always a strong candidate who simPli cannot be elected, as well as one who is. It therefore clear that Mr Crosland must be the moderate candidate. The Labour right — who are not all moderates—still resent Mr -Crosland's chang,e
of front on the EEC. But he did it in goo,'
time; he has never been particularly inteream' in foreign policy; and he has done trojan wo0(i since the last general election. The princiP count against him is his continuing inabilit), to find a base outside Westminster: he vie° again for the National Executive this ye8r. and he failed again. Further, there are those on the left who regard him as the true i!1' tellectual heir to Gaitskell, and consequent dangerous. But this is not felt anything like 0' strongly as it used to be. Mr Crosland ha! undoubtedly moved to the left since the las' election, but he has done so with a convincini appearance of really thinking about it, an; making his move through intellecttia' decision, rather than, as has been regularlY suggested about Mr Berm, as a result of hal,: ing an opportunistic nose. Finally, thott much of what I have said already might u: taken to imply that the moderates have SP exceptional ability to sense the need for compromise, the same has again and again been true of the left during the life of this parliament: if they cannot get their own trali and cannot stomach Mr Jenkins, they NO' settle for Mr Crosland.
There is another thing against Mr Jenkis' He has earned the undying enmity of Alr Wilson. And, while British political history IS littered with example's of outgoing leaders failing to gain the succession for the man theY favour ,— Mr Macmillan is the outstanding example against the generalisation — it is als° littered with examples of leaders successfUllY, destroying the chances of a man they do no want. Mr Wilson has once been wholly in Mr Jenkins's hands — when the latter 105, Chancellor of the Exchequer — and he did 11°' relish the experience. He will never allow tha,,t to happen again and, indeed, Mr Jenkins P now wholly in Mr Wilson's hands. It matters little what shadow portfolio Mr Jenkins j5 given: he will not have the Shadow Chan: cellorship, and he will not be given the spec' to build a new political base. Mr Crosland 's 145 Shadow Cabinet votes settled as nearly 05 anything In politics can be settled, the dell of Mr Jenkins's chances of the leadership an the certainty of Mr Crosland's succession. , There is only one further thing to brood about. Whoever succeeds Mr Wilson, al whenever it happens, the succession is boun" to re-emphasise the split between Westmin" ster and the party outside. Mr Wilson rell!Y well be the last leader of the Labour Part who can command majority support in bot_ places. This may not matter if Labour wins al: overall majority in the next election. But if the Liberals gain the balance, or if Mr Heath ge,t! a renewed mandate, the consequences for tn` Labour Party could be immense.
Previous page
