[To TER EDITOR 01 TIM "SPECTATOR."] SIR,—The trend of events
at present would seem to point to some such grouping as follows. Mr. Asquith will purge the Liberal Party of the Socialists, gather the Whigs and Imperialists round him, and be joined by the Unionist Free- traders, and, though called the Liberal Party, this party will in reality be the only Conservative Party. Mr. Balfour will lead a party which will be called Conservative, but which will really be Radical by reason of the Radical change which a leap in the dark called Tariff Reform would involve. Many Tories will vote for Mr. Asquith, who is a strong man, who would not vote for Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman, who is a weak man. The extreme Radicals will join the Socialists and Labour. Party, and the fourth group will be the Irish Members. Mr. Asquith's party would probably be the largest of the four groups. Of course all this hypothetical grouping might be altered in a moment, but it can, in my opinion, only be avoided by Mr. Balfour announcing very speedily that if and when returned to power his first act will be to appoint a Royal Commission to 'hear evidence from every industry with a view to considering whether any change in our present fiscal policy is advisable or practicable. If Mr. Balfour does this, then peace will reign once more in the Tory Party, and my forecast of probable groupings will fall to the ground ; but if a Royal Commission be not promised or a certain number of seats allotted to Tory Free-traders to guarantee an impartial .inquiry, then civil war in the Tory Party is certain, and the groupings I have suggested may be found to be pretty near
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