Books of the Day

GERMANY'S WAR CHANCES, Major B. T. Reynolds ASPECTS OF UNCERTAINTY, Anthony Powell THE GOLDEN LOTUS, William Plomer FINANCIAL ANNALS, Honor Croorne A POET IN PARLIAMENT, Ronald Lewin BEST-SELLERS, Derek V erschoyle THE COW LANDS, Martin Lindsay A CHILD'S GUIDE TO KNOWLEDGE ...

FICTION, Forrest Reid

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GERMANY'S WAR CHANCES

By MAJOR B. T. REYNOLDS

DR Ivax Laps, Assistant Professor of Constitutional History

at the University of Pecs, recently wrote a little book on Germany's Chances in the Next War in the Light of German Expert Writings, and had it published by the Press of his University. The results were significant. Typical Press re- ports ran, "Into the city of Budapest has burst a bombshell," "Fresh editions are being sold out every few hours." And if the last was a pardonable exaggeration, "30,000 copies sold within a week." But the Professor's success was short-lived. Two months later it was announced that the Public Prosecutor of Pecs had instituted criminal proceedings against author and publisher on the grounds that "the book disseminated false information detrimental to Hungary's foreign policy," and that all copies of the book were to be confiscated by the police. It is generally agreed that German pressure was brought to bear on the Hungarian Government to suppress the book, and it is thus not without interest to sec what it is that the Germans wished to conceal. The English translation appears this week from Gollancz.

In his introduction Professor Lajos explains the reasons that led him to write the book. After referring to the twist given to the history of the War and the post-War period by German writers, and how "a part of our Press is engaged in a masterly preparation of our public opinion for participation in an even- tual war at the side of Germany," he goes on-

" I am convinced that we all bear some responsibility for what may happen. The least of us is responsible to his conscience, and before the judgement of history for the part he may play in direct- ing the fate of Hungary at the present crisis."

His first chapter is entitled "German Plans." Here, as throughout the book, he allows National Socialist spokesmen to state their own case, Hitler, Rosenberg, and a dozen others, in books, speeches, and articles in the Government-controlled Press.

"Today we can count So million Germans" (writes Hitler in Mein Kampf), "but our foreign policy can only be recognised as right if in less than a hundred years two hundred and fifty million Germans live in the world. . . . Only sufficient space can ensure a people's freedom. . . . The acquisition of fresh territory for colonisation by the superfluous population implies an infinite gain. ... these indispensable territories are not be be sought by Germany overseas, but almost exclusively in Europe. .. . What in the course of history became effectively Germanised is the ground that our ancestors conquered by the sword and which was thereafter colonised by German peasants."

The author is writing primarily as a Hungarian for Hun- garians, and he is quite clear as to the fate that awaits his country at German hands. He quotes from a lecture delivered at Munich in 1933: "The little wretched Balkan Hungary with its eight million inhabitants has no right to demand loyalty of its Germans. Every manifestation of culture in Hungary is German. . . . The German cultural area must become a Ger- man racial area." He quotes earlier German writers to show that these ideas are not new, and were strongly represented in Germany even before the War. Germany's aims, he concludes, can only be achieved by war : what are Germany's chances?

He goes on to show from German sources that Germany's chances in a lightning war are not good, and her chances in a longer war infinitely worse. German technical opinion is un-

Germany's War Chances. By Dr. Ivan Lajos. (Gollancz. s. 6c1.) easy. In the East, Russian resources in man-power and tnanu_ facturing capacity make a rapid decision impossible. In the West German prospects are no better. One of her chief weak_ nesses is the shortage of trained man-power due to the lapse of conscription between the years 1919 and 1934. The French defences are stronger than in 1914, and the German means of attack weaker. Germany's rail transport has been badly neglected, and much of it is already in need of replacement-- nor is there the slightest prospect of this being carried out under present conditions. This minimises the German advantage of "interior lines," which she used to such effect in 1914-1918.

The food situation is already serious. The capital market is exhausted. Germany is unable to produce all her own re- quirements, and has not the wherewithal to purchase from abroad. There is already a serious shortage of labour in agri- culture and industry, and production is slowing up. Oil sup- plies are quite inadequate for war. The constant expansion of industry, dilution of labour and the use of ersatz raw materials has led to a notable deterioration in the products of German factories. The life and efficiency of German guns, aeroplane engines, and so on is far less than that of the products of countries whose economies still run on normal lines.

Perhaps most serious of all in the long run are German com- plaints as to the attitude of students. "One of the most urgent educational tasks is the struggle against the youthful disparage- ment of knowledge." "We constantly hear how students do not work out the more difficult and disagreeable tasks them- selves, but either don't do them at all, copy down the answer from someone else, or simply report sick." There is reference to "the false value frequently set in youth on the profession of army officer, leading to romantic fallacies about the military life and leaving out of account that a modern officer must in the first place possess a sufficient education."

Dr. Lajos warns his readers that America would not long remain neutral in a future war, and points out that American military preparedness is infinitely more advanced than in 1917. In a final chapter on "The German People," he makes the point that where Germany in 1914 embarked on war with a united people, her present rulers are having to lay their plans to deal with widespread civil disturbance from the outset. He quotes from the Frankfurter Zeitung of January 18th, 1937, an eye-witness account of the exercises carried out by a police school in Berlin. These included an attack with machine-guns on a factory, the " enemy " being mutinous factory workers.

Dr. Lajos builds up his case quietly and impressively. National Socialist policy is heading straight for a war which Germany cannot win. Of course, his method of quoting from German sources is open to the suspicion of taking sentences out of their context and choosing his authors to suit his case. But, in dealing with a Germany that has no hesitation in giving the lie direct to anything that does not fit in with its policy, probably the most effective method is to allow National Socialist authorities and German experts to speak for them- selves. The author has been very catholic in his choice of sources, and nowhere does he appear to have strained the evidence. I myself have lived ten years in Germany since the War, and saw something of the German army in the Sudeten- land last October. I can fully endorse what the author says about every point within my sphere of personal knowledge.

The position would be utterly ludicrous were it not so tragic. But feeling, in Dr. Lajos' words, that "the least of us is respon- sible to his conscience and before the judgement of history for the part that he may play," one cannot leave the matter there. He has forebome to mention that Germany's only strength lies in our possible weakness. If the average decent German today has ceased to feel any personal responsibility for what has occurred, and what may occur, it is largely because he could and can see no way out of the impasse. The one factor required to render Nazi Germany harmless is that we should substitute a positive creed for Hitler's negative one, and thus bind together not only those peace-loving nations with whom we are associated, but also the overwhelming majority of the German people themselves, who dislike the madness that has taken possession of their country probably even more than we do. Nazism is a creed born of despair, but it is a creed, and one capable of inspiring fanatical devotion. To stand on the defensive against a creed is to court disaster. The only thing which can ultimately prevail against a creed of despair is a creed of hope.