The need for courage
her all the many brickbats thrown at Mrs Thatcher, not even ;ler most ferocious detractors have ever hurled one labelled coward' in her direction. Her critics accuse her of lacking Con passion, not principle. In Zimbabwe-Rhodesia, her tstinct tilts her in support of the agreement forged bethen Abel Muzorewa and Ian Smith, but her reason it forms her that on southern Africa she is no expert. If she 'as bowed to the counsels of the Foreign Office and of her n Foreign Secretary, Lord Carrington, that is not ueeause she flinches at the blackmail and hypocritical cant °Lf Lagos and Dar es Salaam. She has bridled her instinct ,yeeause she has taken a long, cool look at conditions in (imbabwe-Rhodesia and has concluded that the remark!hie political changes already wrought by the bishop and °Nth are, alas, quite insufficient to win the war, in which Political and military factors form an exceedingly delicate combination.
To be sure, the pontification of the OAU et al will not in the end decide the winner, though it would certainly be 4eful for any protagonist to enlist the help of Zambia, the tore malleable of the two guerrilla host countries. The war Ilti,11 be won largely by the capture of hearts and minds in t,iiribabwe itself. Mrs Thatcher has rightly deduced that `Klwever boldly Britain were to back the bishop's team, still kddled with too cumbersome a weight of those very whites vdto have spent 15 years alienating the blacks, black °Pinion upon which, ultimately, the guerrillas do depend Would prove unwilling to give the bishop the extra 8°Pport he needs for survival.
The bishop, however, claims that he is insulted by the ilew British attitude. On the contrary, many blacks in his 113,airtY and in the country at large are delighted by Mrs oatcher's Lusaka demarche, even though it may not yet be lb),Olitic for them to say so. They are confident that the 'shop will come to London and accept the constitutional edllanges which Mrs Thatcher has said are not only tactically "sesirable but morally right. The changes could actually itrongthen the bishop's political hand and if the guerrilla :aders remain intransigent could help the central govloMent to win the war: first, by securing hearts and Illinds; secondly, by allowing Britain to supply the guns. is true that further changes risk an acceleration of ite emigration. But more whites are beginning to recog %waft nise, sadly late in the day, that they are better protected by the creation of a strong, moderate black government than by paper guarantees which merely reduce the readiness of blacks to treat their white compatriots decently.
It is an exellent omen that, loud and clear, Mrs Thatcher has declared that Britain, and nobody else, is now responsible for the constitutional process in Zimbabwe-Rhodesia. That means that another Geneva fiasco cannot be allowed to happen. Consultations with all parties: yes. But it must be Britain which eventually lays down what it considers to be a fair constitution.
There remains an ugly gap between President Nyerere's demand for a brand new constitution and Mrs Thatcher's view that, once certain defects in the Smith-Muzorewa document have been obliterated, it must nonetheless form the basis for a settlement. The guerrillas, for instance, may insist upon full control of the security apparatus during and after the transitional period. Mrs Thatcher will have to counter that the changed nature of the public service commissions will allow guerrilla leaders to acquire jobs at the top of the military tree and some guerrillas to take up important posts; but the far more professional body of men now in the security forces must remain the core of a new Zimbabwean army. What if Mugabe and Nkomo reject such a proposition? To cast aside any doubts whether the fifth principle ('general acceptability') has been met, there will have to be a further test of opinion both on the updated constitution and on the popularity of whichever parties agree to participate in peaceful politics. But when Mrs Thatcher talks of calling a ceasefire so that all parties may participate in a fresh election, let us hope that she is not deluding herself. For the chances of all parties agreeing to a ceasefire remain slim. ' If, as in April, the war continues, elections should still be held, whether or not they may be flawed. But thereafter Britain will have absolutely no excuse for withholding fullblooded backing fo: an emergent Salisbury government. Indeed, the wretched black and white people of Zimbabwe can only be expected to accept further constitutional changes and a new election if Britain promises to back the resultant government to the hilt. That is when Mrs Thatcher's courage would truly be tested.
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