Spanish miracle

John Grigg

There is plenty to be gloomy about in the Western world, and even more to be gloomy about in the rest of the world. But among the brightest of the bright spots is Spain, where an authoritarian regime seems to be transforming itself, peacefully, into a democracy. Of course the process is difficult, perilous and as yet far from complete, but enough has been achieved to warrant some jubilation and considerable hope for the future.

Since Franco died just over a year ago the press (though not television) has been largely freed, non-communist and nonviolent political parties legalised, the right of assembly substantially allowed, and, above all, a democratic parliamentary constitution projected. The decision to have an elected parliament was taken by a huge majority in the Cortes, which was Franco's creature—a triumph of evolutionary change—and next week (15 December) the Spanish people will be voting on it in a referendum. If all goes well a general election will be held in the spring or early summer of next year, and Spain will then become a constitutional monarchy with a responsible government.

So far the British reaction to King Juan Carlos's efforts has been distinctly cool. If anything comparable were happening in eastern Europe, British politicians and commentators would be in a state of ecstasy—until the Russian tanks moved in. But Spain's emancipation is at best being taken very much for granted, at worst treated with surly scepticism.

The lack of official cordiality on Britain's part was all too predictable, with a Labour government in office. Labour's traditional attitude towards Spain is a pathetic com pound of ideology and insularity. Jack Jones, unlike Juan Carlos, is a true 'Bourbon,' who has learned nothing and forgotten nothing since he went to fight in Spain forty years ago. If there is one thing sillier than to fight over again the last war of one's own country, it is to go on fighting another country's last civil war. Yet that is precisely what all age-groups in the British Labour Party persist in doing.

Will they never realise that the Spanish civil war was above all Spanish, and that to see it as a straightforward conflict between democratic forces of the Left and 'fascism' is a multiple illusion? Falangism was indeed a Spanish variant of fascism (and as such, incidentally, more a phenomenon of the Left than of the Right), but Franco dished the Falangists as he dished so many other elements and groups in the course of his career. He was a conservative but eclectic tyrant, whose principal aim, and whose major achievement, was to give his country a long period of peace and stability.

It is right to condemn him as a tyrant, but not to label him an ideologue, and those who take a naïvely doctrinaire view of his regime might care to ponder the fact that when he died there were three days of national mourning for him in Cuba.

Through a combination of luck and good management he was quite widely loved in Spain during the last stage of his career, and the so-called Franquist 'bunker' with which Juan Carlos and his government now have to deal has a by no means negligible basis in public opinion. But the institution which above all has the power to make or break the liberal experiment is the army. Juan Carlos knows that his grandfather lost his throne because the army failed to support him in 1930, in what has been described as a 'negative pronunciamento.' The present king has gone out of his way to retain the army's loyalty, and his personal decision, soon after his accession, to stand with his troops in Spanish Sahara during the crisis with Morocco was a brave and imaginative gesture, which has paid a big dividend.

Such was his prestige in the army, as well as in the country, that he was able last summer to dispense with the services of Carlos Arias, whom he had inherited as prime minister from Franco, and to appoint instead the young and relatively unknown Adolfo Suarez. More recently he got away with sacking two important reactionary generals, Santiago and Iniesta, and with replacing the former in the vicepremiership by a general of notably liberal tendencies, Gutierrez Mellado.

Suarez has shown himself to be a politician of firmness and adroitness (though the alleged influence of a 'Marcia Williams' figure in his immediate entourage is giving rise to some comment). He is understood to be planning to take no part in the first elections, except as a guarantor of fair play, but if he succeeds in launching a viable democracy there will surely be a future for him in Spanish politics.

One of the politicians who refused to serve with him, Fraga Iribarne, has been successfully mobilising a large section of the Right in his Popular Alliance Party. In bidding for the support of all but the extreme Right he has parted company, at any rate temporarily, with some moderate Rightists who used to be his allies. But he is a very able man, whose gamble will come off if he emerges from the elections as the natural leader of a democratic conservative coalition.

The Left is divided and confused, but sooner or later it will have to be reconciled to an imperfect, but evolving, political system. The main stumbling-block is the Communist Party, which the socialists fear but whose right to be legalised they feel obliged to assert. The government is most unlikely to concede that right until after the referendum, and if the Left therefore boycotts the referendum it will be interesting to see how many voters stay away frothl the poll. In all probability there will still be a massive 'yes' vote and the net effect of the boycott would then be to demonstrate the Left's relative weakness, and so 10 strengthen the government's hand in future talks about the constitution.

In due course it is essential that the communists should be legalised, because if they are not allowed to fight elections they can always claim to have a much larger following than they actually have and will moreover increase their following by the mere fact of being outlawed and victimised. They will also have every inducement to permeate would-be democratic parties of the Left, and to fight elections under false colours. All the same, history and practical considerations alike make legal recognition of the communists an exceptionally trickY business, and the government is not to be blamed for approaching it with extreme wariness.

The two most serious threats to the new Spain are regional separatism and the economic problem. Some form of local autonomy for Catalonians, Basques alld, perhaps Galicians will have to be workee out, but as yet nothing definite has been proposed. The king, however, is remark' ably popular in Catalonia, and has the advantage of speaking very adequate Catalan. When he spoke in Barcelona earlier this year it was said by many wilt/ heard him that his Catalan was better than that of the mayor of Barcelona (an un" popular figure, who has since been re' placed). It is, indeed, a forte of Juan Carlos that he is an excellent linguist. Hde speaks French and English with ease, an is trying to learn Basque. The economy is in a very bad state, with inflation running at about 20 per cent Plir annum, with unemployment already higd and rising, and with production all, tourism falling. It is most unfortunate tha' the political change in Spain should have coincided with an economic crisis causedbY outside forces, and it will be tragic if, as a

result, democratic institutions are dis credited. There is reason to hope that theY will not be, because civilised man is more political than an economic animal, esPecia; ly in countries where he has been stared for some time of political freedom. Leadership, however, of a high order wil be needed, and it is encouraging that it hase been so conspicuously apparent over tb, course of the past year. Too bad that ln," only EEC leader to respond to it wi, warm friendship has been President Giscar° d'Estaing.