Sta,—There is a tendency in this country to underestimate the
seriousness of the task which lies ahead of us in marshalling our forces for an attack on Italy. An invasion of Italy is by no means a walk-over. The Italians
fought in Africa extremely well, and after an initial panic which broke out in some Italian cities—following the heavy raids of the R.A.F.—the
morale of the civil population of Italy seems to be stiffening. Swedish correspondents report from Rome that there is a certain determination discernible among the civilians and that people are showing no signs of hysterical fear.
We have to bear in mind the fact that the " Battle of Italy," which only started a fortnight or so ago, has many similar points with the Battle of Britain. The Germans in summer and autumn 1940 tried to bomb England out of war. This attempt to induce a nation into surrender by the sheer weight of bombs failed. Now we try to bomb Italy out of war by the sustained plastering of Italian ports and towns. We do not know whether our attempt will succeed. It would be advisable not to underrate the strength of the Italian defences and of the morale of the Italian people. If both the defences and the morale of the people would not break under the weight of air bombardment, the only possibility left to us would be an invasion of Italy, a military operation of a very serious and difficult character.
Let us realise that all the countries surrounding Germany are by now transformed into a sort of approaches to the Reich. Germany is deter- mined to defend those approaches. Italy is one of the most important military objectives and spheres from the German point of view. The seizure by the Allies of the Italian airfields would spell docsn on the towns and industries of Southern Germany. Brenner Pass and the Alps are no longer an effective barrier. Germany has to defend Italy with all its might. The only possible course which Italy might take, in case of the Italian mainland being invaded by the Allies, would be a revolt of the Italian army against the Fascist regime. For the time being there is no evidence that the Italian army is ready to act against the Fascist Government: such an action would involve the Italian army in an open conflict with the German army If occupation in Italy.—Yours
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