with America from which it was bound to disentangle us
And then, of course, follows the tragedy for the Govern- if possible, and honourably sensitive to its own repute, is ment. In Foreign Affairs no one can say that the
tolerably certain to avail itself of the next plausible occasion Administration has been brilliant. The Russian Note for retiring, as soon as the issue of the American negotiation of 1870 and the Treaty which followed it were humi- is finally known. It can hardly be denied, too, that many oppor- liations to us. In relation to the great war between tunities for honourable and by no means capricious resignation France and Germany, and the terms of peace, our in- are sure to occur in the course of the Session, either on the fluence was nil, and we were almost told so. The Ballot Bill, or on the American and Canadian questions, or on only hope of achieving anything in relation to foreign all ; and should such opportunities occur, the Government will politics was grounded on the reasonable and friendly die- certainly be eager to avail themselves of some one of them, positions of the Cabinet towards the United States. Great Especially if the Ballot Bill be thrown out or lamed in the hopes were built on the Treaty of Washington, hopes Lords, they will have not only a legitimate ground, but a so great that when it became necessary to bribe Canada politic excuse for resignation ;—since their resignation would in order to give them any chance of maturing into cer- place them before the country in the light they have chosen tainties, the bribe was frankly given. And now, it would for themselves,—though we cannot say we think it a very seem, all these hopes are to fail, and to fail, in spite bright light,—as friends of the right of secret voting, so long of a considerable moral and intellectual victory over the as bribery and intimidation are so prevalent in the United United States, in consequence of what is quite certain Kingdom as they now are. But the excuse for resignation to be ascribed to either loose drafting or a want of may well be afforded by other defeats than this,—defeats on moral explicitness on the essential point of the Treaty. It which it would be hardly possible to avoid a crisis of some is true, that since the meeting of Parliament wakened kind. Suppose, for instance, the House of Lords seriously to him up, Lord Granville has shown wonderful temper and censure the Canadian transaction, it would be absolutely neces- tact, almost enough for success. It is quite true that miry for the Government to take a vote implying positive hardly anybody doubts that the Tories would have made approbation in the Commons, if they wished to stay in ; and just the same blunders,—which indeed they did make both it would not be a very easy vote to get. As far as it is pos- in their own Reverdy-Johnson Convention, and, if we except eible to cast a political horoscope at all, there seems to be Lord Cairns, in criticizing the present Treaty. It is true every reason for casting one which declares the fate of the that we have converted Europe, and materially shaken the Government to be near at hand. When Liberal members care United States. But all this is not to the purpose in any party so little to support the Government that they stay away even sense. There has been bungling, and there is to be failure. on a question on which they might not only redeem their The only great stroke in Foreign policy is apparently about to pledges, but even regain doubtful supporters in their consti- fail, and in failing to lay us open to some ridicule for the tuencies,—and the question raised by Mr. Gordon on Monday great sacrifices we have made of colonial interests in night was precisely one of this kind,—it is safe to argue that order to avoid failure. No Government could help stagger- there is desperate demoralization. And if political experience leg under such a blow. This Government, which has shows anything, it shows that fatal accidents never fail to latterly been almost equally unfortunate in its home happen to Governments depending on the support of a policy, can hardly survive it. And if not only the Wash- demoralized party. ington Treaty, but the Ballot Bill is defeated, the Adminiz-
No doubt the chief new element in the calculation is, how- tration will have no prestige left, and must succumb. On ever, not the symptomatic defeat of Monday night, but the Monday's American statement every chance of the survival of rapidly diminishing hope of bringing the American negotiation the Government hangs. And there seems to be little hope to any successful issue. Last week there was a very consider- left that Monday's American statement can be favourable. able chance that the Washington Treaty might be got to We do not say that the Government will be turned out on work after all, without any concession on our part of that question. It is quite possible that the Liberals may give the principle on which we have taken our stand ; sufficient support in the House of Commons to defeat any and if that chance had turned into certainty, there vote of censure on this subject. But even so, failure would would certainly have been a strong practical wish to bring with it certain failure on the Ballot Bill in the House of make the best of the shady Canadian bargain, and not Lords, who would seize the opportunity of again rejecting a throw needless difficulties into the way of saving what we Bill they thoroughly dislike, when proposed by so tottering a can from the wreck of our American hopes. But there seems Government ; and that could neither be cured nor endured to be now a steady stream of discouragement coming in from by a Cabinet which has latterly been compelled to endure America. As far as we can make out, the American Govern- only too much mortification, and has got by this time ment, though willing to instruct their agents not to press very near the end of its stock of that prevenient grace which the consequential damages,' either will not or cannot go teaches men to submit themselves meekly to superfluous further and enter into any engagement to withdraw them, or indignities.
feesed policy which should make Englishmen regret for even into any engagement to refuse them, in case the Arbitra- national reasons that he was a aucceesfal candidate. tors choose to award them on the case submitted to them without further argument. It is said, indeed,—we know not how truly,—that Mr. Fish advises Lord Granville to go on THE PROSPECTS OF THE GOVERNMENT. with the Arbitration, but to protest that in relation to the
POLITICAL forecast is always difficult ; but it is not Indirect Claims we do not admit the authority of the Court, difficult to see that the Government has never been in will not argue the case, and will not in any way recognize the less promising circumstances than it is at present. Of course, authority of an adverse decision. However, the fatal objection to as the doctors always tell you, where there is life, there is this course of proceeding is obvious—it would not settle the hope.' At the very last moment General Grant may see the quarrel. Suppose, what we are bound to suppose, as one error of his ways ; the House of Lords may decide to accept possible issue, that the Arbitrators gave an award under the the Ballot Bill, supposing the House of Commons to pass it head of Consequential Damages, without further pressure on the third reading ; both Houses may consent to wink at from the American counsel, and that we ignored it and the uncomfortable transaction with Canada by which we declined to pay it ? The American Government, as it agreed to idemnify her pecuniarily for not pressing her just maintains its own Case, would be absolutely bound to demand for an arbitration in relation to the claims " arising its people to uphold the award of the Arbitrators ; and out of " the Fenian invasions ; and finally, the Bulking Liberals instead of setting at rest the old causes of difference, may see the mischief of petrifying by legal enactment the we should have given rise to a new cause, and one Calvinistic bias of Scotch education, and muster strongly enough of still more formidable dimensions, because endorsed by in Committee to shake off that Scotch Old Man of the Sea, the an independent Tribunal as well as urged by the American " Shorter Catechism," whom Mr. Gordon wants to seat firmly Government. No Government in its senses would think of on the neck of every Scotch schoolboy. But it is not very proceeding with the Arbitration, unless it had obtained easy at the present moment to hope that all these events will the clear and positive adhesion of the American Adminis- happen ; and if any of them fail to happen, a Government tration to our resolve not to pay any indemnity for discomfited as this has been, conscious of some serious the Indirect Claims in any case, and its tacit sanction blunders, conscious also of having been unfairly deserted by at least, to our protest against the jurisdiction of the Arbi- many of its followers when there was no fair excuse for such trators. This it is now but too clear that we shall not desertion, smarting under petty humiliations which it would get, and therefore we fear that the Treaty will soon be at hardly have borne, even at the time, but for the complication an end. with America from which it was bound to disentangle us And then, of course, follows the tragedy for the Govern- if possible, and honourably sensitive to its own repute, is ment. In Foreign Affairs no one can say that the
tolerably certain to avail itself of the next plausible occasion Administration has been brilliant. The Russian Note for retiring, as soon as the issue of the American negotiation of 1870 and the Treaty which followed it were humi- is finally known. It can hardly be denied, too, that many oppor- liations to us. In relation to the great war between tunities for honourable and by no means capricious resignation France and Germany, and the terms of peace, our in- are sure to occur in the course of the Session, either on the fluence was nil, and we were almost told so. The Ballot Bill, or on the American and Canadian questions, or on only hope of achieving anything in relation to foreign all ; and should such opportunities occur, the Government will politics was grounded on the reasonable and friendly die- certainly be eager to avail themselves of some one of them, positions of the Cabinet towards the United States. Great Especially if the Ballot Bill be thrown out or lamed in the hopes were built on the Treaty of Washington, hopes Lords, they will have not only a legitimate ground, but a so great that when it became necessary to bribe Canada politic excuse for resignation ;—since their resignation would in order to give them any chance of maturing into cer- place them before the country in the light they have chosen tainties, the bribe was frankly given. And now, it would for themselves,—though we cannot say we think it a very seem, all these hopes are to fail, and to fail, in spite bright light,—as friends of the right of secret voting, so long of a considerable moral and intellectual victory over the as bribery and intimidation are so prevalent in the United United States, in consequence of what is quite certain Kingdom as they now are. But the excuse for resignation to be ascribed to either loose drafting or a want of may well be afforded by other defeats than this,—defeats on moral explicitness on the essential point of the Treaty. It which it would be hardly possible to avoid a crisis of some is true, that since the meeting of Parliament wakened kind. Suppose, for instance, the House of Lords seriously to him up, Lord Granville has shown wonderful temper and censure the Canadian transaction, it would be absolutely neces- tact, almost enough for success. It is quite true that miry for the Government to take a vote implying positive hardly anybody doubts that the Tories would have made approbation in the Commons, if they wished to stay in ; and just the same blunders,—which indeed they did make both it would not be a very easy vote to get. As far as it is pos- in their own Reverdy-Johnson Convention, and, if we except eible to cast a political horoscope at all, there seems to be Lord Cairns, in criticizing the present Treaty. It is true every reason for casting one which declares the fate of the that we have converted Europe, and materially shaken the Government to be near at hand. When Liberal members care United States. But all this is not to the purpose in any party so little to support the Government that they stay away even sense. There has been bungling, and there is to be failure. on a question on which they might not only redeem their The only great stroke in Foreign policy is apparently about to pledges, but even regain doubtful supporters in their consti- fail, and in failing to lay us open to some ridicule for the tuencies,—and the question raised by Mr. Gordon on Monday great sacrifices we have made of colonial interests in night was precisely one of this kind,—it is safe to argue that order to avoid failure. No Government could help stagger- there is desperate demoralization. And if political experience leg under such a blow. This Government, which has shows anything, it shows that fatal accidents never fail to latterly been almost equally unfortunate in its home happen to Governments depending on the support of a policy, can hardly survive it. And if not only the Wash- demoralized party. ington Treaty, but the Ballot Bill is defeated, the Adminiz-
No doubt the chief new element in the calculation is, how- tration will have no prestige left, and must succumb. On ever, not the symptomatic defeat of Monday night, but the Monday's American statement every chance of the survival of rapidly diminishing hope of bringing the American negotiation the Government hangs. And there seems to be little hope to any successful issue. Last week there was a very consider- left that Monday's American statement can be favourable. able chance that the Washington Treaty might be got to We do not say that the Government will be turned out on work after all, without any concession on our part of that question. It is quite possible that the Liberals may give the principle on which we have taken our stand ; sufficient support in the House of Commons to defeat any and if that chance had turned into certainty, there vote of censure on this subject. But even so, failure would would certainly have been a strong practical wish to bring with it certain failure on the Ballot Bill in the House of make the best of the shady Canadian bargain, and not Lords, who would seize the opportunity of again rejecting a throw needless difficulties into the way of saving what we Bill they thoroughly dislike, when proposed by so tottering a can from the wreck of our American hopes. But there seems Government ; and that could neither be cured nor endured to be now a steady stream of discouragement coming in from by a Cabinet which has latterly been compelled to endure America. As far as we can make out, the American Govern- only too much mortification, and has got by this time ment, though willing to instruct their agents not to press very near the end of its stock of that prevenient grace which the consequential damages,' either will not or cannot go teaches men to submit themselves meekly to superfluous further and enter into any engagement to withdraw them, or indignities.
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