TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE HERZEGOVINA.
THERE can be no doubt that the fighting in the Herzegovina has turned out, as it was sure to turn out, while the insurgents remained without regularly organised support from Servia and Bosnia, very unfavourably to the in- surgents. Of course the brave and disciplined army of a great Power, recruited from a people essentially military in genius, has easily overcome the incoherent levies of a petty, weak, and divided population. No one in his senses would have antici- pated anything else. But the real hope for the insurgents never was in themselves, but rather in the sympathies of their neighbours, small and great,—in the passionate enthusiasm of Servians and Bosnians for their cause, in the sober convictions of Austrian statesmen that they could not afford to let the discon- tent of neighbouring Slays rise to too high a point, in the tra- ditional policy of Russia, which has always led her to pass as the Protector of the Christian subjects of Turkey, and in the sagacity of the German Chancellor, who is by no means disposed to let the chaos of European Turkey shape itself into a new order, without contributing a few enlightened German ideas to control or counter-balance the barbarous benevolence of Russia. These were the elements of hope for the Herze- govina, and what we have to ask ourselves is not, what liberties can the insurgents win for themselves? but what chance is there that these elements can be so far combined as to compel Turkey, even in victory, to yield to her power- ful neighbours what she is certainly not in a position to refuse them ?
Now, few thoughtful men will deny that what we have advo- cated as the true solution of this question,—namely, a qualified independence for the Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Bosnia in domestic affairs, under a Hospodar of their own,—is the only solution which is in any way consistent with a postponement of the final liquidation of Turkey's affairs, on the one hand, and a termination to these chronic rebellions of the subject Christian race, on the other. If the great Powers who are now so strenuously holding-in Servia, Bosnia, and Montenegro could agree on that solution, it would be adopted; and nobody can help desiring that they should thus agree. Nevertheless, it is impossible to study carefully the information daily received from Constantinople, St. Petersburg, Vienna, and Berlin, with- out feeling a good deal of anxiety as to the issue. There is some danger that amidst the very conflicting objects which the great Powers have at heart, a satisfactory, if only temporary, solution of the difficulty, seems to most of them of much less importance than the wish not to be outwitted by their diplo- matic competitors. And even if, as we suspect, Germany fur- nishes an exception to this rule, and would very willingly use her great influence so as to heal the mischief without re- garding too prominently her own interest in the matter, yet she has so much weightier affairs on hand, and it would be BO utterly quixotic for her to quarrel with Russia on so small a question, in the present critical situation of European affairs, that we cannot expect any very strenuous line to be taken by Germany without some new motive for active steps. England might, perhaps, furnish such a motive, for a cordial under- standing with England on the Eastern question cannot be a matter indifferent to Germany. But Lord Derby has, we fear, neither the courage nor the wish to take a leading part in remodelling the traditional policy of England on the Turkish question ; and without his urgent intervention we can hardly expect Prince Bismarck to risk giving grave offence to Russia, only in order to please Austria and to allay the anarchy and temper the misgovernment of a few wretched and somewhat barbarous provinces. We fear, then, that the real prospect of any immediate result to come from the Consular Commission which is now inquiring into the grievances of the Herzegovinians at Mostar depends on the attitude of the Russian and Austrian Govern- ments, and we cannot deny that the news of the past week fills us with anxiety lest the mutual jealousies of these two Governments should ultimately prevent anything like the application of a serious remedy. Russia's object is of course to foster Panslavic dreams, and to hasten the euthanasia of the power of Turkey in Europe, under the auspices of her own benevolent supervision. Austria's, on the contrary, is to discourage all Panslavic dreams, which are as odious to the Magyars, as they are menacing to the German hegemony in the reconstruction of European Turkey. What
Austria would like would be the repetition, in some form or other, of the Roumanian precedent, which nibbles away at the barbarous rule of Turkey, without stimulating the passion of Slavonic nationalism, or lending any new lever to the Czar. Austria is probably more jealous of Servian and Bosnian sympathy with the insurgents, than of any other influ- ence which is at work in the matter. The statement- that she has told Servia that any active help to the.
insurgents will be followed by an Austrian occupation of Servia is now denied, and probably rather represents. the tendency of her representations than the diplomatic.
fact. But it can hardly be doubted that what Austria most fears, is the creation of homogeneous atoms of Slavonic power which may one day aspire to run together into a powerful South-Slavonic State. That, on the other hand, is pre- cisely what Russia would best like. She evidently wishes not to interfere at all, unless she can interfere with such effect as to gain fresh prestige with all the Christian populations of Turkey by her action; and this cannot be effected_ without giving a distinct impetus to the national hopes of the Slavic people. If the curious statement in the telegrams that she had mobilised her cavalry and horse artillery be true, she has unquestionably convinced herself that there is a danger of some gravity to guard against, and we cannot help sus- pecting that what she fears is some new move like that which gave Germany a fresh centre of influence in the East by securing Prince Charles of Hohenzollern for the Roumanian hospodarate. On the whole, what we seriously fear, is that the jealousy of Russia and Austria may be so keen in this matter, that Turkey, especially after she has put down the insurrection by her own army, will be able to play off the one against the other, and to refuse any substantial concession to the insurgents of the Herzegovina.
The Insurgent leaders cannot be reproached with political impracticability. Though it might have been better for them to attend to their military duties, which seem to have been neglected while they were deliberating at Koscevero on the demands which they would present to Europe, they have cer- tainly shown sagacity and great appreciation of the difficulties of the situation in the demands which they make. Fully alive to Austrian susceptibilities, they do not ask for union with Servia and Montenegro, but only with Bosnia. They do not even suggest an independent State. They contemplate the suzer- ainty of the Porte and a fair tribute, and they offer to take their share of the Turkish Debt. They do not ask for a native ruler, but will accept one selected by the wisdom of Europe. They offer even to furnish a contingent to Turkey in case of war. They are very politic in referring to the Mohammedan population, from, whose chiefs they have so much to suffer. They declare that they wish to live at peace with their Mohammedan brethren, and ask
nothing more than perfect equality with them before the law,—
precisely what the Mohammedans, who are chiefly the land- owners of Bosnia and the Herzegovina, as well as the ruling
caste, will be least willing to concede,—for in point a
fact, this rising is a rising of peasants of one reli- gion against their masters who are of another. Still it is clear that the insurgent leaders could hardly have been more moderate in their demands, if they wanted to find anything like a solution of their difficulties, than they actually are, They ask for the minimum, and not for the maximum, to which the hopes of their friends in all the neighbouring pro- vinces point. And if we could look for anything like dis- interested statesmanship in Europe,—statesmanship really directed to secure a larger amount of prosperity and pro- gress, and comparatively indifferent to dynastic ambitions, —we might be very sanguine that what the insurgents ask they will get, even though their military hopes were extinguished with the successful relief of Trebinje. But- what with the excessive caution of Lord Derby, the preoccupa- tion of Prince Bismarck with other interests, and the bitter jealousies of Austria and Russia, we confess we feel no little fear that Turkey may succeed in defeating even the moderate proposals of the insurgent leaders. Certainly, unless a government can be hit upon which would inspire Russia and.
the Panslavists neither with hope nor with fear, which Austria would regard with moderate but not too great complacency, and which Turkey would have no excuse for representing as a fatal blow to her prestige, it is likely enough that nothing will result except a new series of European representations on the one side, and of Turkish promises, which are always violated, on the other. Perhaps the best chance we have of some more substantial result may be due to the accounts of fearful atrocities on both sides with which the correspondence of the Austrian papers are now filled. When we hear of a Turkish commander giving orders not to slaughter children under ten years of age, and that the order is but indifferently obeyed,—and when we hear, again, on the authority of an English consul, of the barbarities with which the insurgents have treated the Turks when they have got them into their power, we cannot but hope that the European Governments will be compelled to resort to something more effective than a new form of verbal remonstrance. As the blood of the Martyrs was the seed of the Church, so the outrages which result from monstrous political arrangements may not improbably prove the best security for a final remedy. With such atrocities \:::ito awaken popular feeling, Lord Derby will not find it easy to make good to Parliament any case for simply bolstering- up anew the power of the Turk ; and that is a considera- tion, we hope, which may induce even him to take up a bold and statesmanlike attitude.
Previous page
