THE SITUATION.
IT is quite clear that Turkey is seeking peace, and that is all that is clear. The British Government, after many discussions, and probably many telegrams to St. Petersburg and Paris, signified to Turkey that she must, if she wished for peace, apply directly to the Russian Generals for an armis- tice. The Porte and the Sultan therefore came to an agree- ment to seek one, and on the 9th inst., Server Pasha, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, signified the decision to the Chamber sitting in secret session. The decision was, according to accounts which it must not be forgotten are substantially Turkish, received with favour, and Mehemet Ali, a General who knows German and French, was authorised to open communications with the Grand Duke Nicholas. This much seems to be certain, as the Grand Duke has telegraphed the fact to the Czar; but this much is little, until we know what terms the military Envoy was empowered to accept, and what terms Russia will demand before the armistice is concluded. It is more than probable that at first Mehemet All's powers were limited. We do not, indeed, fully believe the statement forwarded to the Telegraph, that Turkey insisted on the uti possidetis as the basis of an armistice, for the Turks are soldiers, if any- thing, and know perfectly well that no such terms would be accepted. They would include no advantage to the victorious army, and no guarantee that Turkey, after using the six weeks in bringing up her last battalions from Arabia, would not refuse to accept any terms likely to ensure a durable peace. Still it is very probable that the Envoy was at first tied to certain conditions, but on the 9th the aspect of affairs was again changed. By a series of daring operations whose detail is not yet known, Generals Mhsky and Skobeleff succeeded in forcing two of the Balkan passes, and enclosing a third, the Shipka, Pass, and the army within it in a complete circle of investment. The army of the Shipka, forty battalions strong,—that is probably, 20,000 men, with sixty guns, and a regiment of cavalry—after, as the Grand Duke Nicholas reports, "some desperate fight- ing," surrendered to the Russians, under General Radetsky, who, it will be remembered, has held the north of the Shipka for some months. This feat, which will probably turn out to have been a marvellous one, scores of the Russian soldiers having perished of frost-bite—the Russian soldier on service is not allowed spirits—taken together with the capture of Sophia, completely changes the position in the eyes of Constanti- nople. It is probable that the Pashas believed the childish stories of the danger of the Russian armies from cold and ice, which imposed, we see, on the Duke of Sutherland, and which were repeated every day in order to induce the Turks to resist. Cold harasses armies, but does not destroy them, unless they are flying, as the French army in Russia was, from their magazines, and though it inflicts losses of its own, it suspends still more destructive epidemics. Now, however, the Pashas see that Russia, instead of retreat- mg northwards to avoid snow, has broken through the Balkans, their second line of defence, has descended into the compara- tive warmth and comfort of South Bulgaria, and will, if peace is not made, destroy their last regular army before Adrianople. They are well aware that they cannot now defend themselves without England, and that England will not help them, and they are far more reluctant than their English advisers to make a last desperate stand behind the lines of Constantinople. They know too well both that half the population of their capital is Christian, and that its danger would loosen the last bonds of their authority in Asia, where Stamboul is thought of and imitated as the capital of the world. Islam thinks of the city as Catholics do of Rome. That they will consent to terms is therefore probable—always allowing for the chance of a Softa insurrection—but whether they will consent to sufficient terms remains still to be seen, and for all that has passed is still more than doubtful, unless Lord Beaconsfield resigns.
No trustworthy account of the Russian terms has yet appeared, and we regard the majority of rumours circulated as mere feelers, put out by the friends of the Turks to see how much they can save for the Pashas. It is not probable, however, on the face of the circumstances, that Russia will agree to an armistice without the surrender of Rustchuk and Widdin, or to any peace which does not include autonomy for Bulgaria North and South, and an effective guarantee for the Christian government of all Christian provinces and islands within the area of the authority of the Ottoman caste. If she asks or accepts less than this, the peace will be a mere truce, for the Greek claim will instantly be brought to the front, and a far wider plan, including the final liberation of the whole of European Turkey, would be both more judicious and more right. We admit, however, that Russia, which has borne the entire expense and sacrifice of life involved in the execution of the mandate of Europe, must judge how far it is practicable at present to complete her work, and rescue the second half of the old Roman Empire from Asiatic dominion. Europe has avoided its clear duty, and has done nothing to help her, even in carry- ing out the resolutions of the Conference, and the right of Europe to urge her forward is therefore limited. Still, if weak terms are accepted, the Russian people, which for the first time in its history has been able to do a great disinterested ser- vice to the world, will not be content, and the Russian Army, which has displayed extraordinary valour and self- devotion, will feel that the diplomatists have thrown away much of the results of its work. We await the result, therefore, with a confidence which, though far from perfect, is still strong, believing that the horrible suffering of the war will yet secure a result adequate to the loss its prosecu- tion has involved to the world. We care nothing about com- pensations to Russia, though we fully admit her claim to them ; but if the population of European Turkey is but finally released from the sway of a destructive despotism, the hundred thousand Russians will not have died in vain.
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