East Coast— January 3 r st
By W. W. WILLIAMS* IHAVE for two and a half years made a detailed study of a section of the East Coast between Lowestoft and South- wold, where coastal changes are very rapid. I was there on the Saturday, January 31st, and Sunday, February 1st. The weather forecast at 7 'a.m. on Saturday did not suggest that anything unusual might take place; I did not hear the 1 p.m. forecast, and although I was on the beach until 4 p.m. I noticed nothing suspicious except that small craft were running to Southwold for shelter. No further weather forecasts were heard during the week-end because in the early evening of Saturday the electricity supply failed. It came as a complete surprise therefore when the damage of the night's storm was seen on the Sunday morning. The fact that 1 did not expect this storm is not to say that it could not have been foreseen. On the contrary, previous storms which have caused serious erosion have been easily forecast from B.B,C, Weather News, and I have successfully arranged visits to my cliffs at crucial times. Certainly the weather maps published for January 31st mould have aroused my suspicions if I had seen them, though I do not pretend that I should have expected conditions of record severity.
The scene on the Sunday morning was indescribable. The sea level appeared to have been raised by about six feet above normal, and enormous waves were attacking the cliffs, the dunes, and over-running the low ground. A gale was blowing, and the tops of the waves were whipped off in flying spume. At one point where a trickle of water began to fall down the cliff it was blown upwards like a geyser, so strong was the wind. Benacre and Covehithe Broads, usually well above sea level, and separated from the waves by considerable banks of shingle and sand, were invaded by the waves, and appeared to be surf- filled estuaries. Between them lie Covehithe Cliffs, a sandy headland rising- to a height of forty feet. In places these were eroded to a depth of thirty-five feet during the night—more than had been eroded in the previous three years. The waves were hurling themselves half way up the cliff. To the North, the sea broke thrwgh a gap in the dunes and wrecked the pumping station or the Hundred River. The road approach to it over Benacre Dunes was cut.
All this occurred on a coast sparsely inhabited, so that there was no loss of life, and the damage to property was not very great. But the same storm, on a low-lying and densely populated area, particularly when the inhabitants are housed in flimsy cabins or caravans, was bound to be disastrous. The sea broke after dark when, in many areas, the electricity supply had already failed. The wind was of such force that even on inland waters —the flood waters—large waves were running. It is common knowledge that waves and running water working on unaccustomed ground can quickly batter flimsy walls or scour soft places, so that the difficulties of victims and rescuers are greatly increased. The loss of life and property is enormous; but, considering the severity of the storm, it is surprising that ft was not worse. 'Fortunately little rain fell, so that the flood- ing did not spread further inland- from that cause.
* Of the Department of Geography, Cambridge University. A visit to the same beach a week later confirmed the impres- sions that I formed at the height of the storm. Fishermen' seventy years old were agreed that it was the worst in their experience. The coastline was cruelly eroded, and the marks will stay for a long time even according to geological standards of time. What was agreeable to see was that the sea walls had stood the test magnificently, and a new flume at the pumping station at Benacre, an apparently flimsy concrete structure straddling the beach, was still standing unmoved on its piles- though hundreds of tons of shingle had been washed from underneath it. The most serious damage was caused by a break in the dunes near Benacre pumping station. One engine house with its engine was tossed sideways, and the two other engines were filled with water and sand; in consequence valuable meadow lands have been flooded with sea water.
It had not been thought possible for a storm of such severity to attack our shores; it is probably more than 200 years since so much damage was done, and it was assumed that we knew the worst. What had happened was that a North Westerly gale had blown for so long and with such force that it raised the sea above the normal, or predicted level by several feet. This coincided with spring tides, and was accompanied by wave action of exceptional ferocity so that the sea rose until it flooded low ground and broke through defences whose efficiency had never been doubted. The amount by which the tides were boosted has not been published. A tentative figure is six feet. But the flooding of King's Lynn, Lowestoft and Canvey Island points to a rise which must surely be unprecedented. These tidal surges are well known phenomena, and are discussed in some detail in the foreword of the "Admiralty Tide Tables "; but the severity of this particular storm was such that it sur---_ prised engineers not only on our coasts, but in Holland as well. Those who are inclined to start a -witch hunt in this country will do well to remember.-the damage suffered by the' magnificent coast defence system in Holland.
How can such disasters be avoided in future The truth if that we cannot take steps which will with certainty prevent such very high seas from invading our land; the cost would be pro-- hibitive. But three distinct precautions suggest themselves. First that the proper authorities ensure that building on. dangerously low ground be restricted to the barest minimum. Much recent building has been unwise in this respect, and a= wooden cabin or caravan suitable for a summer holiday may be quite unsuitable for winter occupation. The second precaution is the building of coast defences. While the country cannot undertake to build sea walls to protect the whole coastline, some defences are vital in vulnerable places where a break through would flood large areas, or where important instal- lations, particularly sluices and pumping stations, may be damaged. Recent events have shown us where these places -are, and the proper authorities must be guaranteed the necessary assistance. We have been so short of funds," said a sorrow- ful and overworked engineer when I ventured the opinion that it was unfortunate that more protection had not been afforded to his pumping station. He and his kind -must have more funds.
. The third precaution is some carefully contrived warn- ing -system -to- those who must -perforce live in -danger areas, so that they may get away with at least their lives. As has already been said, tidal; conditions in which flooding may occur are known; their 'development depends upon wind phenomena which are rare, but which should be predictable. It would appear therefore that a closer liaison between the experts in meteorological forecasting and tidal affairs and the B.B.C. should make such a system of warning possible. When the symptoms of possible danger appear, confirmation would almost certainly be forthcoming -by a constant comparison of tide gauge readings against predicted values, first in the north of the country, then further south. It might be advisable to instal a few additional tide gauges now. If this is done it should be :possible to give to all areas a warning of say, two hours. - There is, of course, the risk that such warnings may be ignored. The East Coast is full now of accounts of foolish individuals who would not listen to the warnings of weather- wise men who, at a late stage it is true, foresaw heavy flooding. They are unlikely to be caught again; but the next generation, not remembering this disaster, may be equally unwise. Should not certain areas be scheduled as danger areas and the inhabi- tants be warned that they must obey official orders for evacu- ation ? Only if such steps are taken does it appear possible to ensure that there shall not be a repetition of this dreadful week-end.
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