A.R.P. IN EARNEST I the past week the Minister of Health
has issued / to local authorities a circular setting out in consider- able detail the Government's proposals for evacuation from cities in case of emergency ; the twenty-eight Lon- don boroughs have proposed a plan of co-ordination for the whole metropolis ; and Sir John Anderson has explained through the Press both what steps his Depart- ment has taken and what it hopes to take over the whole wide field of what are commonly described as " passive " anti-air-raid precautions. It is high time. What we need to be prepared against is the contingency of an early war. That does not mean, of course, that an early war, or any war, is probable. But in the present state of Europe all things are possible. There may be no war. There may be war in which we shall not be involved. There may be war in which we shall. And it is this last possibility that must determine our defensive policy. One thing, moreover, is certain, that if war should be forced on us it will not be at a time of our choosing, for the sufficient reason that we should never choose war ; we should fight only if a situation were created, by some Government other than our own, which seemed to leave us no alternative. And the actions of certain European rulers are so incalculable that such a situation might be created at any moment.
These are facts which it would be suicidally foolish to disregard. Predictions of a spring offensive by Germany or Italy, or both, have no very solid foundation, though a good many minor events and tendencies lend them colour, but it is against precisely that possibility that we must be prepared, and precisely that must govern all the Cabinet's decisions. Precautions that could be elaborated over a period of twelve months would be far more effective than more rapid improvisations, but they would help us little if the blow fell three months hence. And though we are not called on to regard that as probable, it is essential to regard it as possible, and to take steps accordingly. That is not a matter that concerns primarily the Prime Minister or Sir John Anderson. It concerns first and foremost the individual citizen, and it demands of him mental prepara- tion even more than physical. The best prevention of panic is deliberate adjustment to the uncertainties of the future, and a serious recognition of dangers which may never materialise. There is too little recognition of that at present. Business—and pleasure—are too much as usual. The events of last September had a profoundly sobering effect on a people brought in a week face to face with a peril in whose imminence it had never seriously believed. That impression has to a large extent worn off, and there are few signs that men and women throughout the country have reached conclusions, as they have had abundant time to do, on what public service they could render, and how they would order their private affairs, in the event of an emergency arising.
Many, of course, are waiting, and legitimately, for guidance from the Government, and it is that which Sir John Anderson must supply. The ideal, if time permitted, would be to work out a plan of concrete preparation and personal- training which would be of maximum benefit in time of peace and of maximum efficacy in time of war. The waste involved in measures service- able only in war and useless in peace is tragic. Much of that, doubtless, there must be. No one doubts the value of trenches as protection in war; no one has devised a use for them in peace. But there are, fortunately, some provisions with a twofold value, notably underground shelters serviceable equally as car-parks, holiday camps available for the evacuation of school children, and in the sphere of personal preparation training in first-aid or in the auxiliary fire service. A first-aid training increases everyone's value as a citizen, and the case for making it all but universal would be strong even if war were finally banished from the world; and hardly less cogent are the arguments for associating volunteer auxiliaries with public services like the fire-brigades, as has long been the splendid tradition in the lifeboat service. True national service, indeed, as it might and may remain organised for peace-time, as distinct from emergency, needs, would include in different localities a pool of volunteers on whom either public or voluntary social services might draw as they had occasion. It may be hoped that if and when the apprehensions that have called Sir John Anderson's Department into being have been dispelled, opportunity will be found for Sir .John or some successor to do whatever a Minister or a Govern- ment can do to realise in this country the ideal of a disciplined democracy.
Part of that must be for the future. Meanwhile there are practical steps to be taken, and taken quickly. This is no time for suspending action while the rival merits of this protective measure or that are argued. The second- best now is ten times better than the best too late. And in fact the various measures are not alternatives. All of them will be needed. Active protection, in the forth of counter-attack, anti-aircraft batteries and balloon- barrages, is a separate question ; progress is being made there, and much more is needed yet. But the citizen must take steps to protect hiMself. Trenches, where open ground is available for them, are perhaps the best -ether- gency provision, short of the deep tunnels adVocated by Professor Haldane and others ; to concentrate on the former as a short-term policy does not for a moment, as Sir John Anderson has emphasised, mean excluding plans for the construction of the latter. Where trenates are impracticable the steel shelters described by Sir John Anderson in his last speech in the House of Commons are a great deal better than nothing. And in any case evacuation of certain sections of the popula- tion, particularly children, is imperative. It is perfectly true, as the Minister of Health points out, that many people will be kept where they are by their duties, but people with no special duties, or duties that can as well be performed elsewhere, have no justification whatever for remaining in danger zones. The sooner they move out, and leave the trenches and shelters there for persons compelled to remain, the better.
There has been ample time to arrange the transport side of evacuation, and every reason to believe there will be no breakdown there. And the Minister of Health is no doubt right in proceeding at -once to perfect arrange- ments for billeting in existing private houses and public buildings. If local authorities in the " reception " areas make their enquiries and reports on the accommodation available promptly, one cause for considerable anxiety will be removed. But the importance of camps also should not be ignored. They would be of permanent value in peace-time and .immensely useful in an emer- gency. The more of them there are the more the evacuation problem would be simplified. There is no difficulty in making them perfectly sanitary and perfectly weatherproof, even in winter. Sir John Anderson might well, as a first step, have designs for the construction of camps of different sizes prepared, and consider on what basis the construction could be financed and management by local authorities or voluntary organisations arranged. This may not be a first-rank need, but it most certainly calls for consideration and action. There is no shortage of material or labour, and construction could be rapid. January was the month set aside for " an A.R.P. drive." Sir John Anderson is now back at work. Much is expected of him, and he is entitled to expect much of the country. If he gives the right lead and the country the right response we shall have gone far to establish that sense of security most fatal to an aggressor's hopes.
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