Israel's 'spin'
From Alex Bigham Sir: Douglas Davis has clearly been spun a good line by some Israeli military analysts if he thinks the Israeli threat to use nuclear bombs against Iran is more than that — a ruse to scare Iran into returning to the diplomatic table (Israel will do whatever it takes', 6 January).
Iran's nuclear sites are not a small, isolated reactor like Osiraq was in 1981; they are widespread, well-defended, near urban areas, and many are buried deep underground. After Israel's failure to destroy Hezbollah last summer, does it really have the stomach to take on a country of 70 million, with an army of over half a million, without the support of the Americans?
If the Iranians are developing nuclear weapons (and this has not been proven by the IAEA), the 'point of no return' will not be in 2007. Iran's co-operation with the IAEA, albeit sluggish, gives the IAEA the ability to monitor any moves toward a nuclear weapon. Most intelligence estimates suggest that it will not be for at least five years, or even a decade. Even if it were two years away, there is still time for diplomacy.
Despite being oiland gas-rich, Iran does have a legitimate need for nuclear power (as well as a right to develop it under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty). Recent reports of a financial crisis in both the electricity and hydrocarbon industries show that Iran will face major blackouts during 2007, because of spiralling demand, to say nothing of the environmental and economic benefits of nuclear over burning fossil fuels.
A military strike which simply targeted the nuclear facilities would not only increase popular support for the ayatollahs, but would boost Israel's nemesis Ahmadinejad. In addition, Iran could respond in a way which would be devastating for the region and damaging to Israel's security, with increased support for Hezbollah and Hamas.
Israel is, of course, entirely justified in condemning a regime which rhetorically seeks its annihilation and makes outrageous claims about the Holocaust. However, it is in Israel's best interest to show the kind of restraint it did when Saddam launched Scud missiles on to her territory in the first Gulf war.
Alex Bigharn Foreign Policy Centre, London Ni From Michael Judd Sir: I applaud Douglas Davis's article in the issue of 6 January. An Israeli strike on Iran would be a great deal more effective than anything the Americans can do. Have we not had enough of the Americans bombing from 30,000ft (usually missing the target) and then having ongoing political problems (Afghanistan and Iraq and today Somalia)? Israel would at least get the job done.
Michael Judd Nice, France
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