POLITICS

Ulster will march and Ulster will be right

BRUCE ANDERSON

Afew weeks ago, John Major and David Trimble were having a friendly chat at No. 10. Out on Horse Guards mean- while, the Household Division were rehearsing for Trooping the Colour. Sud- denly the band struck up. As the drums rolled, the Prime Minister smiled at the Unionist Leader and said: 'There goes that Lambeg drum again, David.'

No one in Ulster is making jokes about Lambeg drums these days, nor are Mr Major and Mr Trimble having amicable dis- cussions. The situation in Ulster is desper- ately serious, much worse than the mainland press has yet realised. Not only is the peace process all but dead, which makes a resump- tion of terrorism within the Province almost inevitable; intercommunal tension is as bad as it has ever been. A year ago, some com- mentators were arguing that there could be no return to violence in Ulster; the two com- munities would simply not allow it. That was always an optimistic assessment of the rela- tionship between terrorists and peaceful majorities; today, it is wholly out of date. The psychological underpinning of the peace process has been virtually destroyed. As if this was not enough, the Province is threatened by large-scale civil disobedience by the Protestant majority, with the constant threat of rioting and a real possibility that law and order will collapse.

The Government's Ulster strategy has also collapsed. For a number of years it has had one overriding objective: to convert militant republicans into constitutional nationalists. This has not happened. Instead, the events of the past few days have come close to converting consti- tutional Unionism into militant loyalism.

Anything that goes wrong for this Gov- ernment always involves two elements: a neglect of politics and a delegation of cru- cial decisions to officials. The Government had twelve months' notice of the forthcom- ing trouble at Drumcree. A year ago there was conflict between Orangemen and local Catholics which went on for days, threat- ened to get out of control and left a legacy of bitterness. It was inevitable that there would be a repeat performance this year, yet the Government did nothing to avert it: there was no attempt to find a political solution and officials were left in charge.

Personalities have also played a part. Paddy Mayhew and David Trimble detest one another, and Mr Trimble also has bad relations with Sir Hugh Annesley, the Chief Constable. David Trimble is not an easy man, but he is able and brave. He has taken many political risks for peace, and deserves far more understanding in London than he receives. Nor is he the only difficult charac- ter involved. Sir Hugh can be prickly and is not without egotism; there is a suspicion that he might allow personality clashes to cloud his judgment.

Marching, of course, is the point at which the Orange tradition is least comprehensi- ble to English opinion. Without being besotted by nationalist mythology, many moderate Englishmen simply cannot understand why grown men should want to march around in bowler hats and orange sashes to commemorate a battle fought 300 years ago. The English could just about accept Orangeism as an Ulster equivalent of morris dancing, but when they further learn that the Orangemen insist on march- ing through Catholic areas when the locals find their symbolism offensive, all sympathy is forfeited.

It is easy to understand this reaction, and • to some extent the Orangemen deserve it. For many years, they did use some of their marches to assert tribal dominance; the Lambeg drum always thundered as the marchers went past a Catholic church. It is hardly surprising that many Catholics came to detest Orangeism, though it is also true that in some rural areas there was no ill- feeling; the Catholics were happy to watch their Protestant neighbours parading, the Protestants bore no animosity towards the spectators — and everybody went to the same pub afterwards.

The answer to the marching problem must be found in a combination of princi- ple and compromise. The principle is easy; the citizens of London often have to put up with traffic disruption caused by demon- strations — mostly in support of repulsive causes — and they do so in the name of free speech and free association. Orange- men, too, are entitled to free speech.

Last year, a deal was struck at Drumcree by which local Orangemen were allowed to walk along the disputed route, but with no outsiders and no bands. That was the obvi- ous solution this year too. It would not have been popular with the local Catholics, there would have been protests and scuf- fles. The SDLP would have complained, as would Dublin. But it would all have been over in an an hour last Sunday, and by now it would have dropped out of the news.

It is still not too late to let the march go ahead on last year's terms. The Govern- ment would hate doing this because it would be represented as a humiliating climb-down. But it is better to lose ministe- rial pride than to lose lives. Moreover, the Government has shown itself willing to accommodate Sinn Fein by dropping the insistence on decommissioning and a per- manent ceasefire. Those are concessions of far more magnitude than allowing a few Orangemen to walk down a road. The Protestants have noted the contrast.

Today, loyal Protestant Ulstermen feel embattled and insecure: beset by enemies, neglected by their friends, misunderstood by a world which fetes murderers and flouts democratic legitimacy. They have watched terrorists manipulate the political process, stopping only to wash the blood off their hands as they flit from the IRA army coun- cil to the negotiating chamber. It is impos- sible to overestimate the offence caused every time Gerry Adams appears on televi- sion, or when a convicted terrorist dictates terms to the RUC, as has happened over the past few days at Drumcree.

These formerly moderate Ulstermen have had enough. They are fed up with being taken for granted by the Northern Ireland Office while it appeases Dublin and Sinn Fein; fed up with being treated like the prodigal son's elder brother, especially as they know that this Provisional prodigal son is not to be trusted. They have decided that it is time to stand their ground. Their friends in the rest of the United Kingdom ought to respect their judgment — not that there would be any hope of dissuading them. Ulster will march, and Ulster will be right.

A lot of unlikely Orangemen will indeed be marching this weekend, in spirit if not in person. On Wednesday morning, an old chum of mine who even six months ago would gladly have consigned the Orange Order to a folk museum, told me that he was strongly tempted to join it. 'I don't know whether they'd have me,' he went on, 'and I'd feel a real eejit in a bowler hat and a sash, but this is shoulder-to-shoulder time.'

This is also the time for the Government to act, within hours rather than days. It would be unforgivable if Ulster slid into chaos just because a few policemen and politicians were afraid of losing face.