Tony Blair must call a referendum, or Britain in Europe will collapse
PETER ()BORNE
Shortly after the 2001 general election, Charles Clarke, the Labour party chairman, observed that the euro was 'the most important issue facing Labour this parliament'. In private Tony Blair sent out the same message to businessmen, MPs and journalists in the pro-European camp. They were left in no doubt about the Prime Minister's utter determination to take Britain into the single currency. Publicly the Prime Minister made a series of speeches which, while not changing by one jot the technical position surrounding entry imposed on Blair by Gordon Brown in November 1997, were noteworthy for an ever greater euro-enthusiasm.
Most recently there was the leaked memo from Philip Gould, Tony Biair's political consultant, that the euro-referendum was now winnable. Interviewed by Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight, the Prime Minister's sentiments regarding entry to the euro bordered on the fervent. But the polls obstinately refused to move. The working majority in favour of a No vote has reverted to about 25 per cent, close to the three-year moving average. Meanwhile the final practical date to make a decision — reckoned to be Christmas at the very latest, once the heavy burden of legislation needed to prepare the way for entry is taken into account — draws ever closer.
Last week the government seemed to blink. The Times ran a story that the Prime Minister was entertaining the notion of delaying any referendum until after the next election. The story is deniable. But the author of the account, the paper's political editor, Philip Webster, has an admirable track record and excellent sources. Indeed, it was Webster who scooped Fleet Street almost five years ago when, in November 1997, Tony Blair ducked out of holding a referendum for the first time.
The Time.s's account did its best to put the Prime Minister in a reasonable light. It stressed the difficulties that delay would create for the Tory party by keeping alive the rancorous euro-question through to the 2005 general election. But it is impossible to overstate the dismay and the sense of frustration that the Prime Minister's allies in the pro-euro camp will feel if the government finally does abandon its plans for a referendum in this parliament. In their eyes, such an act would be nothing short of betrayal and a personal humiliation for the Prime Minister. 'I think his place in the archives would be in doubt if he proved himself to be so indecisive and shilly-shallying on this profound issue,' says the LibDem MEP Andrew Duff. One pro-euro Tory, a backer of the all-party Britain in Europe campaign and a former senior member of the Major government, says that 'those who in the end feel that Blair is a second-rater with no substance would find themselves vindicated'. There are warnings, too, that Tony Blair will surrender his already slender credit in Brussels if he fails to press ahead. Questioned about the British decision on the curt) at a press lunch at the European Commission offices in London on Monday, European Commissioner Michel Barnier went out of his way to emphasise the extra influence which comes with signing up to the single currency.
In Britain it is now certain that the proeuro coalition, so painstakingly hammered together by Peter Mandelson, Tony Blair, Kenneth Clarke and others in 1999, will collapse if Tony Blair declines to press on with a referendum in this parliament. The Britain in Europe campaign, the proEurope campaigning body, 'will fold if there is not a referendum in this parliament', says one BIE insider. 'We will implode; I can't imagine that our big business guys are happy to hang around and be teased for another three years.' This prediction is endorsed by Andrew Duff, who says, 'I think it is quite clear that if Blair pulled the plug BIE would walk away. Employees there have to get a job and get on with their lives.'
Duff warns about 'huge resentment in industry, really a feeling of treachery, if Tony Blair leads the way to the point of departure and then pulls back at the last moment. Business people have other things to do with their lives, like being entrepreneurs and selling things.' This feeling is confirmed by one prominent pro-European industrialist and BIE backer from the early days. He warns that 'business funding will dry up and people would say: "What's the point?"' if Blair declines to hold a referendum. Failure to hold a referendum in this parliament would be 'regarded as a complete loss of courage and lack of leadership', says the businessman. 'But I fear that may be the position with the Prime Minister. One of the things which has bound the business community to the government has been his position on the euro. If leadership was found wanting, then business admiration for the Prime Minister would deteriorate further.' Friends of Niall FitzGerald, the Unilever boss, predict a 'flood of AngloSaxon language if Blair reneges on his promise'. Fitzgerald might prefer clarity one way or another — in other words a negative decision — to another parliamentary term of uncertainty.
Britain in Europe is open to the charge that it has fallen victim to the same kind of institutional capture by Downing Street that hamstrung the CBI after the 1997 general election, or the Countryside Alliance over hunting last summer. Readiness to work from the inside has impeded it from deploying a really fierce, independent argument. This is one mistake that the No organisation never made. When it was started three years ago, it saw with ruthless clarity the need to set itself apart from the Conservative party, a decision which precipitated a vicious shadow Cabinet row at the time. It ignored frantic appeals for help from the Tories when William Hague ran his desperate 'seven days to save the pound' appeal at the end of last year's general election. This fastidiousness allowed it to organise on a much broader basis than would otherwise have been the case, and to bring into its scope Labour MPs and others who would have been driven away had it allowed itself to be just a Tory front organisation. By contrast Britain in Europe has occasionally given the impression that it is an apologist for Downing Street's caution and lack of guts. It has found itself hamstrung by No. 10's own Catch-22: Tony Blair cannot start campaigning till the five economic tests are passed; the tests cannot be passed till the polls start to move; the polls will not start to move till Tony Blair starts to campaign.
This situation suits Downing Street fine. New Labour has always been about avoiding decisions. Its guiding philosophy — the Third Way — is about having the best of all possible worlds, keeping in with everyone, and that includes pro-Europeans and sceptics. But the business backers of BIE are losing patience. They will spell out to the Prime Minister this summer that he must go ahead with a referendum next year if he wants to retain their support.
Previous page
