TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE CRISIS IN FRANCE.
THINGS are getting very hot in Paris. The result of the election for the Nievre appears to have inspired the Bonapartists with new hopes and the Republicans with new fears, till they feel as if they were already face to face as the only parties before the country. Whether in addition to this new stimulant any rumour of a possible coup d'Itat has got abroad, and has been credited by serious men, we do not know, but it is clear that the Republicans, and especially their chief, are seriously alarmed. The first effect of the election in the Nievre was to bring back the Left Centre to their allegiance to M. Thiers, and to induce them to publish a programme, said to have been revised, though not written, by himself, in which they declare that the Republic must be established, with Marshal MacMahon as first President, and that if this is impossible with the present Assembly, they accept the alternative of dissolution. The excitement caused by this announcement was of course very great, but as the Government still possessed an apparent majority of about seventy, it was dying away, when a vote on a fundamental measure revealed that the majority was untrustworthy. The Conservatives intend to diminish the vast number of electors by raising the electoral age from 21 to 25, and imposing severe terms of residence, thus disfranchising 3,000,000 voters, and as a preliminary inserted the same provisions in the new Municipal Bill. The Moderate parties, however, perceived that such a measure would instantly drive the excluded three millions into the ranks of the Bonapartists, and the Left Centre, Left, and Extreme Left suddenly closed their ranks. They were joined by the Bonapartists, with whom universal suffrage is a dogma; several members of the Right adhered t) them, probably out of mere faction, but possibly out of hatred to the Ministry; and twenty members, probably mode- rate Orleanista, stayed away, till on the division the Ministry were beaten by 348 to 337, a majority of 11 against them. The blow is fatal to the new Constitutional Laws, whose very basis it the restriction of the suffrage, and in any Constitu- tional country the Ministry would have resigned. Universal suffrage, however, being preserved, the Republic and the Empire were alone before the country, and Marshal MacMahon, who regards his Ministers as departmental chiefs, and has just gone through the difficult task of selection, has kept them on, and the vote has been almost forgotten in the violent scenes which followed.
It appears that a copy of a Circular, sent either by leading Bonapartists or by some fanatic members of the party, to the NieTre, had been found in a railway carriage, and sent to M. Girard, Republican Deputy for the Department, and was by him, on Tuesday, read aloud to the Assembly. This Circular promised employment in the territorial army to all officers on half-pay, and a redress of any grievances, real or imaginary, which the Empire might have inflicted on them, and if issued by serious politicians, certainly pointed towards a Napoleonic coup d'etat. M. Rouher instantly rose to deny any share in the Circular, or any knowledge of its contents, but the burst of execration from the Left appears for once to have cowed him, and he sat down, having only succeeded in arousing the entire Chamber to a sense that Imperialism had once more become a formidable danger. M. Gambetta, who always discerns any emotion in the House, and who probably felt that the time had arrived for letting loose Republican passion on the only dangerous party, ascended the Tribune, and in a speech of terrible fire declared the Minister of War and the Minister of Finance responsible for the Circular, and denounced the Bonapartists as those miserables who had debauched and ruined France. And when the Speaker, M. Buffet, had called him to order for the use of a word so utterly unparlia- mentary—its English equivalent in effect, though not in meaning, would be "curs "—the impassioned orator declared that he used it not as an insult, but as a brand of shame. The House, though fearfully excited, did not support the Speaker, but the Bonapartists were wild with rage, the Corsican Galloni d'Istria threatened a personal assault on M. Gambetta ; and when restrained by force shrieked out the
epithet "Genoese," the worst a Corsican can use, but intended to remind the majority of Gambetta's foreign extraction. The President was compelled to suspend the sitting, but the note had been struck ; Paris had begun to catch fire ; and the Republicans crowded the station to welcome their chief. The Bonapartists, fewer, but even wore violent, yelled at him ; one
man tried to assault him ; and at last., on Thursday, as he. was standing in the station St. Lazare, he was struck across the face with a cane by a Bonapartist. It is stated that the police, who are strongly Bonapartist, or rather, strongly opposed to- the populace, did not behave quite impartially towards Repub- licans, but still the Republicans formed the crowds ; it is clear the serjeants received special orders at once to protect all Members of the Assembly ; and that the soldiery were turned out to assist them in case of need. So far as appears, the Marshal-President will allow no violence on one side or the other, nor is there any probability that M. Gambetta the head of a great party, and possible President of the French, will permit his adversaries to get rid of him by insult, or assault, or challenge. Nor, we must in justice add, do we believe that they intend to adopt a course which would. cover them with useless infamy. The Left believe they do ; but that, like the assault on M. Gambetta, is but one more proof of the red-hot condition of the public mind. The air, as Carlyle has written, grows electric, preternatural suspicion is abroad everywhere, and men will believe everything, almost that they are themselves assassins.
Nevertheless, though order is still maintained, and M. Gambetta will not be assassinated, and Paris will not rise, the situation is still most serious. When the Assembly becomes uncontrollable, and Members are protected by the Army, and chiefs of parties are assaulted publicly, and Ministers can neither carry measures nor resign, and Paris has grown red- hot, and nothing but the bayonet stands between the Government and a descent into the streets, we have all the symptoms which in France portend political action of, some volcanic kind. We trust, however, still that the- kind may be one recognised by the law. Marshal Mac- Mahon by merely ruling, by impartially protecting the. right of all alike, and by calmly awaiting the subsidence of the effervescence, may hold disorder down until the Assembly can by a direct vote accept or refuse the only legal solution,—an appeal to the people through a Dissolution. No other course can, it is now too clear, suspend the hatreds of the parties, or allow the country to judge between them, or- reconstruct a majority, or prevent that solution of continuity which has so often recurred, and has been always so disastrous. This policy, as it chances, is still easy of adoption. The Marshal has only to send a Message to the Chamber, stating that deeply as he feels its loyalty to himself and to the cause- of Order, a dissolution is unavoidable, and a dissolution would, we believe, be voted, with however great reluctance._ The majority which preserved universal suffrage intact would vote together, and would be swelled by the Marshal's follow- ing, which, though inconsiderable, would tell heavily on a doubtful vote. Besides, it would be thoroughly understood that, in the event of refusal, the Marshal would use pressure, either by resignation, in which case the majority would be compelled to appoint the Due d'Aumale, and hold the South down by force ; or by ordering all vacant seats to be filled ; or, in the last resort, by decreeing dissolution and asking a Bill of Indemnity from the next Assembly. We believe the Chamber would yield ; and if it yielded, all parties, even the Bonapartists, would wait for the verdict of the country, which might be expressed in a way to terminate all controversy. The new Assembly would then be legal, would be constituent, and would be supported by an irresisti- ble force both of votes and bayonets. No coup d'Itat would be made, no hlood would be spilled, no illegality, even in form, would be committed, and for once change might be accom- plished in France without a revolution. The Marshal would play, in fact, the part of the General Monk of the national will. We can scarcely doubt that with his honesty, and his intolerance of Parliamentary disorder, and his reverence for his word, this is the part he will play ; and that, finding his Government power- less, he will appeal through the legal machinery to the people. Any other course whatever, even an appeal to the people through a plebiscite, will be a recommencement of the sterile cycle of revolution, fatal to the Marshal's own reputation, and. may well be fatal to France. At least, if the coup d'etat is to come, let it be after the legal expedient has once more been tried, and has once more failed to impose on the parties the will of collective France.
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