THE INFERENCES'FROM THE ELECTIONS.
IT will be observed that the Conservative reaction, for our steady belief in which we have been so much ridiculed by some of the political critics of the day, has passed considerably even the highest limit we ever ventured to assign to it. The Conservative majority will certainly reach fifty, and perhaps not fall much short of sixty members. As we write, the Liberals have wrung twenty-three borough seats from the Conservatives in England and Wales, and have lost to them sixty-three borough seats in the same division of the kingdom ; but in the Counties of England and Wales our losses have been relatively still more serious, for we have but gained in England and Wales two county seats (one of them the important one in the North-West Riding, lost only last year), while we have lost to the Conservatives no less than nineteen. Considering how the return at Hackney is disputed), have adhered wholly to But above and beyond both these very considerable causes the Liberal party ; and even in some of these boroughs, notably of Conservative fear, there has no doubt been a very prevalent in Lambeth, the contest was a very close one. It cannot feeling on the part of the non-political or half-political classes, be denied, then, for a moment either that Villadom is, for the well expressed in a letter to the Times of yesterday, that the time, completely Conservative, or that the greater cities of extreme section of the Liberal party had had quite enough South Britain are verymnch more so than they were,—that they influence lately,—a beneficial influence, on the whole, but are losing their sympathy with the Liberal party, and disposed enough of ik—and that its predominance might become a to give their vote for standing still. Mr. Disraeli may fairly say danger. Mr. Gladstone had inclined something too much of that the large areas are on his side, and that the large popula- late to that side of the party. Tory obstructiveness had, if not tions are leaning more to his side than they did. That the passed away, yet received so grave a lesson, that it might be extension of household suffrage to the counties would extra- trusted for a time to try again, and see if it could govern ordinarily change the balance of parties there we do moderately without preventing beneficial change. Mr. Dis- not doubt. Even now it is obvious that it is just in those raeli had been guilty of much that was questionable when counties where the present comity suffrage does not exclude governing with a minority, but with a majority he might the labourers--namely, the mining counties—that the Liberal improve, and give the country an interval of rest. "On party keeps and even extends its hold. But so far as the these grounds," says this representative of moderate policy, ordinary artisans of the towns and their suburbs goes, it seems "many electors who might not have voted at all, thought
quite certain that Mr. Disraeli is right in supposing that the the time had come for them to express an opinion, Tory party has now probably as much reason to count on their which they did by supporting the Conservative candidates. support as the Liberal. It is only those who still need, or think There was no personal feeling against the Government. Its they need, legislative protection, like the colliers and the agrionl- measures had not harassed,' or even affected them, and the tural labourers, who set their faces steadily against the Tories, secrecy of the Ballot (to which the change of opinion has been In other quarters, the existence of a Tory democracy, variable partly ascribed) did not in any way influence them." In short, no doubt in numbers and earnestness, but still disposed at times the non-political or half-political classes had had enough to quarrel with Liberal ideas, seems certain. drastic Liberalism, and thought the best way to get a little But the constituent elements of the Tory democracy are quiet, was to give the Conservatives a turn. And the certainly very motley. No one who considers either the great prevailing prosperity has had a great deal to do with that city or the county elections and their results, especially the feeling. Prosperity is a political opiate. Those who feel it are elections in suburban counties, can doubt that the fear of not inclined to make stupendous efforts for any cause. The Unionism, both in the trades and amongst the farmers, is mere appearance of great zeal and earnestness is a little offen- probably the largest element in this new Tory revival. The sive to them. Mr. Gladstone and his Ministers, and still more only two leaders of Unionism elected are miners, who live in the the most active of the spirits behind Mr. Gladstone and his centre of a thick mining population,namely, in Stafford and Mor- Ministers, were too much inclined to "cry aloud and spare peth, and it is remarkable that an able man like Mr. Howell, not," for the terpper of the day. The electors would have
who is known as a leader of the labour movement, has to go liked a little supineness, or as they put it to themselves, to a place like Aylesbury even to get a chance of election. In moderation,' better. They wanted a Ministry without zeal,
the ordinary cities and towns, where, if the distributive classes without great earnestness, without a strong sense of duty. do not outnumber the purely productive, the latter must clearly And they will get what they wished, and perhaps learn, after be divided amongst themselves, the Unionist party can they have enjoyed it for a little time, to value zeal, and muster no real strength. No doubt the jealousies felt by the earnestness, and strenuousness more than before.
Unionists among themselves are very great, and probably the Ballot aids the expression of these jealousies. Many a good Unionist must have voted for the Con- servative party during this election, partly perhaps from feeling that the Unions themselves are quite powerful enough without getting any increased influence in the Legis- lature,—that he wished the Unions to be controlled by the State, and not to control it. We do not suppose this to be the feeling at all of the new and struggling Unions,—of the Agricultural Unions, for example,—but these have no power as yet in the elections. That jealousy of the leading Unionists is strongly felt even in some of the mining districts, the extra- ordinary defeat of Mr. Halliday, one of the ablest leaders of these men, in the contest at Merthyr-Tydvil, where he polled
feeble was the Liberal hold on the counties even in the last 2,000 votes less than the Liberal candidate next above him, Parliament, it cannot be denied that this is a heavy blow and sufficiently shows. We ascribe mulch of the Conservatism of great discouragement. It is made worse by the kind of the counties and the great cities to dislike of Unionism, victory which has been achieved in the suburban counties agricultural and mariufacturing.
round London. We have not only lost the only Liberal Members Next, a great deal of the Conservative feeling has been due for Metropolitan counties whom we had in the last Parliament, to the threats of the Birmingham League, and the fear of Lord Enfield and Mr. Locke King, but we have lost them by the Moderate Liberals that the Birmingham element in great majorities, and Lord Enfield's defeat is a defeat of the Liberal Cabinet might easily become too strong. nearly two to one. It is the same with the suburban conn- We should not be surprised if this feeling has been so ties round Liverpool and Manchester. Lancashire and defined that Mr. Bright's accession to the Cabinet may Cheshire, as counties, give an unshaken Tory vote. The have done more to turn the elections against the Govern- only counties in England which remain heartily Liberal ment than in their favour. There can be no doubt, as are the mining counties of Durham and Cornwall, where we the School-Board Elections have shown in all parts of the have as yet lost nothing, and in Durham have even strength- country, Birmingham perhaps alone excepted, that the English ened our position. Villadom, we must frankly admit, whether people have no fancy at all for secular education, and that the Metropolitan or provincial, has given as clean a Tory vote as prospect of leaving the religious teaching of the children to could well be imagined even in the most Elysian dreams strictly denominational agencies, and refusing the ordinary of Colonel Taylor or Mr. Noel. Again, even in the great teachers any right to enter into the domain of religion, has cities themselves, the Tones have gained immense ground. been an exceedingly unpleasant one to the mass of the pecple. In the City of London, Manchester, and Liverpool, the Mr. Forster has taken the line which the great mass of the Liberals are represented only by the minority Member. In people, both Liberal and Conservative, have approved, but it Westminster they are nowhere, and in Marylebone the Con- was felt that Mr. Forster's position was an insecure one with servative was at the head of the poll. In Sheffield, the so disunited a party behind him, and one or two colleagues at leading Member, however he may vote, was to all intents and his side earnestly disagreeing with him. And that, we bc- purposes returned by the reactionary party. Even in Leeds, lieve, has had a great deal to do with the reaction. It was where a Radical is quite at the head of the poll, two Con- thought that an interval of Conservative government servatives were associated with him. Only Birmingham and would bring more new strength to Mr. Forster's policy Bristol, of the towns of first-rate population, and a few of the than a renewed lease of power to himself and his col- Metropolitan boroughs(Finsbury,Lambeth, and Hackney,—and leagues.
the return at Hackney is disputed), have adhered wholly to But above and beyond both these very considerable causes the Liberal party ; and even in some of these boroughs, notably of Conservative fear, there has no doubt been a very prevalent in Lambeth, the contest was a very close one. It cannot feeling on the part of the non-political or half-political classes, be denied, then, for a moment either that Villadom is, for the well expressed in a letter to the Times of yesterday, that the time, completely Conservative, or that the greater cities of extreme section of the Liberal party had had quite enough South Britain are verymnch more so than they were,—that they influence lately,—a beneficial influence, on the whole, but are losing their sympathy with the Liberal party, and disposed enough of ik—and that its predominance might become a to give their vote for standing still. Mr. Disraeli may fairly say danger. Mr. Gladstone had inclined something too much of that the large areas are on his side, and that the large popula- late to that side of the party. Tory obstructiveness had, if not tions are leaning more to his side than they did. That the passed away, yet received so grave a lesson, that it might be extension of household suffrage to the counties would extra- trusted for a time to try again, and see if it could govern ordinarily change the balance of parties there we do moderately without preventing beneficial change. Mr. Dis- not doubt. Even now it is obvious that it is just in those raeli had been guilty of much that was questionable when counties where the present comity suffrage does not exclude governing with a minority, but with a majority he might the labourers--namely, the mining counties—that the Liberal improve, and give the country an interval of rest. "On party keeps and even extends its hold. But so far as the these grounds," says this representative of moderate policy, ordinary artisans of the towns and their suburbs goes, it seems "many electors who might not have voted at all, thought
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