THE NEW MIDDLE EAST
T11E expulsion of the Egyptian. military attaché from Amman and of the Jordanian ambassador from Cairo will inevitably add still more venom to the hostil- ity now existing between the two-blocs of Arab powers. On the one hand, Iraq, Jordan; SaUdi Arabia and the Lebanon • are lined up. on the' Western side Under the benevolent.eye of the State Department: On the other, Egypt and Syria have • pinned their faith to 'active neutralism' and a more extreme . form of nationalism with Russia hovering in the background offering tanks and MiGs. In the competition fot Arab support Colonel Nasser has been . losing ground rapidly in recent weeks. The Lebanon elections—though a victory for the pro- . Western government of President Chamoun had been ex- pected—are the latest blow in a series of setbacks which began with King 'HusSein's Coup. in Jordan and continued with the reconciliation between the Hashemite and Saudite dynasties.
One Outstanding fact of the last few Weeks has been the scanty support given by the Russians to their potential allies in the Arab world. Czech sub-machine guns in the :Lebanese elections—no . doubt, partially legendary—have proved' a poor coul‘ter to the activities of the Sixth Fleet. The more immediate' impact of American dollars and warships is prob- ably the reason for the coolness which.has apparently sprung up ,between Russia and Egypt and caused the recall of. M. Kissilev, the Russian ambassador in Cairo.' The consultations which have been going on between President Kuwatly of Syria and Colonel Nasser show that the 'active neutralists' evidentlY.feel the need for some action tO impress the Arab world with the superior quality of their policies and prospects.
The recrudescence of incidents in the Gaza strip is prob- ably due to Egyptian feelings that something must be done to assert themselves. The success of the fedayeen in infiltrat- ing into Israel sharply underlines the ineffectiveness of the United Nations .Emergency Force, which, having turned security in the strip over to the Egyptian authorities, is quite powerless either to Patrol the frontier properly or to suppress fedayeen bases. Owing to the political muddle into which the UN command has got itself, the troops have not even clear instructions as to what they are to do if they meet fedayeen actually crossing the border. General Burns is reported to have wished to put up a barbed-wire fence along the frontier to stop raids, but this sensible plan has now been dropped owing to Egyptian opposition. Colonel Nasser would natur- ally be opposed to any measures which might end an easy way of showing his Pan-Arab fervour. The American bloc, on the contrary, seems content to make threatening noises Without taking any action. The Saudis, despite a good deal of talk about violation of the holy places of Islam, have done nothing so far to hinder the passage Of shipping in' the Gulf of Aqaba.
Meanwhile, the Council of the Baghdad Pact has been meeting in Karachi, and the occasion was graced by a. pro- longed blast against .Israel by the Prime Minister of .Iraq, Nun i es-Said-------who, incidentally, has just been reshuffling his government.. In spite of the Foreign Secretary's euphoria on his return to London, nothing very startling seems to have taken place, and the plans which were'.so freely -bandied to and fro before the meeting—plans for transforming the pact . into a more definitely military alliance—have. riot •come to anything so far. However, the- fact that the US is to be repre- sented on the military committee of the pact does :suggest that some attempt is being made, logically enough, to link the various Western allies in the area into one single front against the Soviet Union. Whether this can be done without alienat- ing some of the elements who have been attracted by US diplomacy and dollars is another matter. Doubt must also be felt as to the actual value of the armed forces of the Baghdad Pact powers in the event of their having to be used. The teeth that can be put into the pact by Britain :and America are somewhat thin on the ground—to mix a metaphor..
The general picture of the Middle East at the' moment is one of more stability than has been visible for some time past. This is due to the American decision to throw the weight of the US behind potential Western allies, to Egyptian ex- haustion following on too ambitious a foreign policy, and to evident Soviet unwillingness to go the whole hog in support of Egypt and Syria. The transfer of Saudi allegiance has switched the balance of power in the area, and there are signs of a more realistic Arab attitude towards the Israeli question, However, it would be a mistake to imagine that anything is yet settled. For one thing, we have yet to see the Russian riposte to Jordan. The short-term possibilities of trouble centre on Israel and particularly on Israel's right to passage through the Suez Canal. However awkward the demand for the end of Egypt's blockade May seem to British and Ameri- can diplomats, there should be no compromise on the rights of shipping to pass through the Canal. This is only part of a larger question which Britain and America may.soon have to answer. Faced with a Nasser seeking better relations, are we to play the old game of appeasing Egypt at the expense of Israel? Are we to be deceived once more by the mirage of an Egypt participating in a Middle East Defence Organisa- tion? Dreams of this sort should not disturb the slumbers of either the Foreign Office or the State Department. We should welcome friendly • approaches from the Egyptians and the Syrians. In commercial matters we should deal with them as we deal with others—on a basis of mutual advantage—but we should certainly never assent to the kind of conditions recently sketched by the Syrian Foreign Minister to British cor- respondents. 'An attitude of non-intervention' about the question of Israeli shipping through the Canal would be in the interests neither of Britain nor of international morality.
For, after all, the Middle East's present stabil- ity is very probably only delusory. America's lavish use of money and pointed hint of force may be able to prop up the pro-Western elements in countries like Jordan; the development of Iraq may even provide a real basis to build on. But underneath the meetings of kings and Ministers, behind the oil wells and the plans for economic aid, there still seethes the cauldron of Arab nation- alism and the revolutionary forces that may be released by the aspirations of a younger genera- tion. When these come into play all the Sixth Fleets in the world will be unable to stop them, and we may find ourselves once again in need of a reliable ally. The major defect of Western policy in the Middle East may yet prove to be that tve are still betting on the past.
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