IF HANKOW FALLS
BY A CORRESPONDENT LATELY IN CHINA
During the past few weeks the Japanese effectives have been appreciably increased, and strenuous efforts are being made to break through to Hankow. Their ruthless opera- tions, resulting in the slaughter of thousands of defenceless people, the brutal treatment of civilians, the bombing of unfortified towns and passenger trains, and the looting and wanton destruction of property, are obviously designed to terrorise the Chinese and reduce them to a state of sub- mission. But. their progress is slow. Beyond taking a few towns and forcing the retirement of the Chinese from Tienchiacheng, the Japanese are still a long way from their main objective. This speaks volumes for the tenacity of the Chinese troops who, in spite of the many, disabilities under which they are fighting, are stubbornly resisting the onslaughts of the Japanese and impeding their advance.
Various conjectures are being made as to when Hankow will fall. Viewed in the light of the progress made since the drive began, it would seem that some months have still to pass before that goal can be reached, but even though the Chinese may be compelled to withdraw, it does not necessarily follow that such an event would have any deciding influence upon the future of the struggle. This view is shared in Chinese circles, but it is tinged with apprehension as to the possible psychological effect that it might have upon the morale of the Chinese troops and the people.
The importance of Hankow is undeniable. It ranks second among China's Treaty Ports in respect of shipping and commerce, and it is the great entreptit for the extensive trade with the Yangtze region and Central China To the Chinese the loss of Hankow would be a serious blow, but it cannot be said that this possibility has not been con- templated. It would deprive them of such revenues as are now being collected through the Salt, Customs and various inland tax offices, and enable the Japanese to dominate the main channels of trade and shipping, as well as the railway lines between Peking and Canton.
In anticipation of the eventual success of their drive, the Japanese authorities are preparing to set up a provisional government in Hankow, as they have done elsewhere. The difficulty encountered in cities where such governments have been established has been to find representative Chinese to fill the various official posts and carry out the orders of the Japanese advisers appointed by the military authorities. If the governments now functioning in Peking, Shanghai and Nanking are to be taken as a criterion of what Hankow may expect, the prospect of reviving trade and industry without Official interference is far from encouraging. This view is borne out by the restrictions imposed upon commerce in Chinese cities within the sphere of Japanese occupation, and it may safely be assumed that no exception, in these respects, would be made in Hankow.
The trend of Japan's pOlicy in China is observable in her unreasonable attitude to all attempts which have been, and are still being, made to restore to the Shanghai Municipal Council its full authority and control over all areas in the International Settlement. Furthermore, the representations made by certain foreign. Powers, with the object of discontinu- ing the existing censorship and interference with mails, telegrams and other means of communication, have, so far, been of no avail. Similarly, no satisfaction has yet been obtained from the Japanese authorities in regard to the repeated requests for the restoration of rights and privileges of trade, travel, and residence in the Yangtze, North China and other areas, including the use of railways, shipping and commercial airways, with access to available markets, and the restoration of property and goods to their lawful owners, on the basis of equal opportunity. These few facts will serve to indicate th impediments to trade and commercial intercourse in Japanese occupied areas, and it is not surprising that foreign and Chinese merchants in Hankow take a pessi- mistic view of the future, if that city should fall into Japanese hands.
Japan hopes for a speedy termination of the conflict. The prospect of a second winter's campaign is definitely dis- tasteful. The expenditure for military operations is makihg heavy inroads upon her financial resources, and although her people are committed to the sacrifices entailed in this unfor- tunate and costly venture, and are, from all outward appear- ances bearing them with stoical resignation, there is an under- current of discontent which they are at pains to conceal.
The fate of Hankow depends upon the morale of the Chinese troops. Their former German military advisers have been replaced by Soviet experts, and according to report, no efforts are being spared to strengthen the defences of the city. If the morale of the troops remains unimpaired, they have a reasonable hope of holding their ground. Chinese casualties have been, and will continue to be, very heavy, but it is worthy of note that they have so far contrived to escape anything in the nature of a decisive defeat, as witness their withdrawal, after very heavy fighting in and around Shanghai. Their great capacity for sacrifice when national issues are at stake is generally recognised. In the present life-and-death struggle against great odds they are capable of even greater sacrifices to prevent their coming under the domination of Japan. If the worst that can happen should befall Hankow, they will, in all probability, withdraw and make a stand farther in the interior. They cannot hope for a decisive military victory, but they can obstruct the advance of the Japanese forces, and bring the final stages of the struggle to a state of intensive guerilla warfare over a vast area.
Japan is not invulnerable. Her economic and financial disabilities may prove a determining factor in the conflict. China's new-found political unity may yet be relied upon to prevent a quick victory, and forestall a compromise settlement on Japanese terms. But that inevitably means a protracted campaign. The only alternative to an indefinite prolongation of hostilities is for the Powers to refuse to supply Japan with arms and other war materials.
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