FRENCH PARTIES.
THE political horoscope of France is almost as hard to fore- cast as that of England. Scrutin de lists may lead to changes as startling as any that are likely to be wrought by an extended suffrage and a redistribution of seats. Moreover, since the rise of the Second Republic, France finds herself on the eve of a General Election, without either a great popular leader, a statesman of commanding ability, or a soldier to whom she would be willing to confide her destinies. Thiers and Gambetta are dead, MacMahon is politically defunct, and there are none to succeed them. Parties are in equally evil plight ; not one of them has even a decent umbrella, and one only can be said to have a clearly defined policy and a good cry. The new Ministry, when they do not blow hot and cold with the same breath, seem to be halting between two opinions. The Nation calls them " a Cabinet of eunuchs." Whatever may have been the shortcomings of M. Ferry, he had at any rate a policy. He thought it his duty to seize and turn into a colony every square kilometre of territory, especially tropical territory, upon which he could lay his hands. The ex-Premier has a theory that France is overflowing with capital, and firmly believes that to find outlets for it in such countries as Tonkin and Madagascar is the surest way of putting fresh life into French industry. The new Government, though in words they repudiate their predecessors' policy, are acting precisely as M. Ferry would have them act. While protesting their determination to avoid " foreign adventures " and distant expeditions, they make an exception of Madagascar,
and ask for a credit of half a million sterling wherewith to conquer an island much larger than France, sparsely inhabited by people who wear next to no clothes, and never bought an
article de Paris in their lives, where French soldiers will die like flies, and European colonists can no more thrive than in
Cayenne or Anam. France, says M. Brisson, has rights in Madagascar ; these rights must be vindicated, the" national patrimony " must be preserved ; then we have the usual rhodomontade about the honour and interests of France being above all considerations based on mere figures and statistics ; and Opportunist papers give glowing accounts of the mineral and agricultural resources of the island, which only needs exploiting by French capitalists to become a source of national wealth.
As a contrast to this policy of unprincipled and costly Colonial extension, M. Clemenceau opposes a policy of peace,
retrenchment, and reform, stigmatised by M. Ferry as a policy of pot-au-feu. We are no great admirers of French Radicals, many of whom are either time-servers, self- seekers, or doctrinaire Jacobins, and we are far from regarding M. Clemenceau as a great statesman ; but the question is whether they or the Opportunists are more likely to win the suffrages of the electors at the General Election. In other words, how will the peasants vote ? For it is with them, in the last resort, that the issue must rest. As the Opportunists have no longer the name of Gambetta to conjure with, they can appeal only to their performances in the past and their promises for the future. As, however, their performances have been failures, it is possible that their promises may not be credited. It is they who are re- sponsible for the death of Riviere, the recall of Bourree and the repudiation of his treaty, the war with China, the disaster of Bacleh, the defeat of Lang Son, and the addition of some hundreds of millions to the National Debt. True, French peasants give little heed to the foreign policy of their Govern- ments, and few of them, probably, would be able to distinguish between Tonkin and Madagascar ; but they know that mach money has been spent and many lives have been lost without any apparent result in the shape of better crops or higher prices. In these circumstances, it is not unlikely that rural voters may deem a change desirable ; and Royalists and Bonapartes being equally out of the running, the Opportunists, if deposed, must necessarily be succeeded by the Radicals. But M. Clemenceau, at least, has a distinct programme ; and his pot-au-feu policy is much more likely to find favour with the peasantry than M. Ferry's policy of pro- fuse expenditure, which they do not like, and Colonial exten- sion, which they do not understand. It is a significant fact, moreover, and one which seems greatly to surprise the Paris Press, that his meetings in the country are well attended and his utterances highly applauded. He appeals not alone to Jacques Bonhomme's love of retrenchment and peace, but to his passion for equality. He would make the seminarists (candidates for the priesthood) pay the blood-tax like every- body else ; he proposes to abolish unfair and oppressive taxes, and promises to reduce the public expenditure, " without which national bankruptcy is possible in the near future."
No programme more likely to attract the peasantry could well be devised, and in estimating the chances of French parties it should be remembered that scrutin de liste may bring about some unexpected results, and that neither the opinion of Paris nor of the majority of the Deputies is necessarily the opinion of France. Personal influence, offers of place, and promises of grants for local purposes, which, under the old system of scrutin d'arrondissement, served the turn of so many candidates, lose, by the adoption of the new, much of their former efficacy. In these circumstances, and when electors have as many votes as there are candidates on the list, victory must needs incline, other things being equal, to the party which votes the straightest, even though they be numerically inferior to their opponents. This secret the Swiss Radicals long ago found out, and by giving their suffrages to their own candi- dates and none others, they have over and over again beaten opponents who, though stronger in numbers, were less united in spirit. It is, therefore, far from impossible that the French Radicals, acting on the same principles, may secure the triumph of that pot-au-feu policy so warmly advocated by M. Clemenceau and so scornfully flouted by M. Ferry.
But whatever changes in the relative strength of French parties the forthcoming election may bring about, it cannot fail to produce considerable changes in the personnel of the Chamber ; for in addition to those arising from the voluntary retirement of some Members and the defeat of others at the scrutin, there are forty-three 'vacancies, caused by deaths and promotions to the Senate, to be filled up, while as many new seats have been created since the last general election. It is estimated that at least a fifth of the new Chamber will consist of new men who, whatever else they may be, cannot be re- garded as a quantitJ ne'gligiable. It would be a mistake to attach too much importance to M. Ferry's reception at Lyons and the reception he may meet with elsewhere. The important fact is that, albeit the ex-Premier warmly advocates the pre- servation of the " national patrimony," he practically admits the unpopularity of his Colonial policy by protesting that he has not the least desire to make further acquisition of territory, and admitting that France requires, above all things, tranquility and repose.
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