TOPICS OF THE DAY.
A WAR, OR A CONGRESS?
THE speculators in war prices have kept the ascendant in the public market; and outward assurances of continued peace have scarcely strengthened since we last alluded to the manifest breach between France and Austria. The tone taken by King Victor Emmanuel in opening the Piedmontese session implies, that, con- fident in his backing by France and Russia, he is prepared to confront Austria, on behalf not only of his own states, but of Italy. On her part, Austria makes no sign of giving way. The reply of Francis Joseph to the reserved compliment of Napoleon, has the cool defiance of a sneer. The increase of Austrian troops to the extent of 150,000 for quelling insurrection, looks like the defiance of the sword. We noted last week the way in which Austria is surrounded by dangers that would instantly become for her alarming aggressions, the moment she should consent to raise the standard of war. Her financial difficulties are flagrant in the movement towards a new loan. Yet she makes no sign of surrender ; and the explanatory assurances given in Paris have tended to increase rather than abate the alarm. The eonstitu- tionnel, speaking as if it had been deputed to the task, announces that there will be no hostile proceedings against Austria on the ground of any differences; none, unless she should break trea- ties or threaten to do so. An intervention in Servia would be a breach of treaty ; and are we wrong in supposing that without
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actual war, the occupation of the Italian Duchies s a breach of treaty ? At the Paris Conference in 1836 Count Walewski particu- larly pressed upon the necessity of withdrawing the French and Austrian troops from the Roman territories. Both the British and Foreign Plerupotentaries, while they agreed to the withdrawal of the troops from Greece, made that the occasion', to preach the ne- cessity of terminating of these abnormal occupations at the earliest possible date. France seems to say to Austria in Italy—" Now is your time ! " The certain fact is, that if any European Power, anxious to find a ground for prosecution, wishes to discover some treaty which Austria has broken the thing is easy, for that easus belli exists on almost any, side of Austria. Yet among the best informed it is a rising belief, that, after all there will be no war. To reconcile this inference with obvious facts, we need but glance at the change which has taken place in the situation since the last war. It change been remarked that al- though the Emperor Napoleon might not desire a commotion in any part of the continent, he might use it. If an outbreak in Italy is unavoidable, it is obviously necessary that he should be present,—guiding, controlling, converting, and perhaps after all settling, or at least taking his full share in the Imperial partner- ship of settlement. Now the occasion is peculiarly favourable, not only for the immediate aggrandizement of Napoleon and France, but for widening certain ulterior opportunities which are, as it were, his estates in the future. When Sardinia came for- ward as a recruit for the Western Powers in the Crimean War, it was principally Great Britain that undertook to bring the ques- tion of Italy before the next European Congress. Accordingly, at the Congress of 1856 Lord Clarendon spoke stoutly, and almost echoed the memorandum which Massimo d'Azeglio had written, and which Count Cavour, with such admirable energy and tact, brought before the assembled plenipotentiaries. Count Walewski, the French Plenipotentiary, by oblique processes, rather threw cold water on the Italian question. Since that time England has been tried in Naples, and has failed ; has been virtually sum- moned by Piedmont to support her, and defaulted,—until Lord Malmesbury corrected that error. England, to a certain extent, thwarted French councils on the Danube, and the concessions made at Osborne were not quite cheerful. At last it is Russia, who agreed with France on the Danube, that comes forward tc; reassure Piedmont of not being left alone; and then France re- vives the talk of withdrawing her troops from Rome, in other words, of letting loose the Italian against "the Stranger." Aus- tria, a very vulnerable Power, has thwarted Russia in Constan- tinople, on the Danube, and in other quarters, and has gone to extremities that threaten the revolution in Europe which France deprecates. France, therefore, has her grudge against Austria ; we all remember the Russian grudge ; and Austria must be humiliated.
But is war the sole means to this end ? Certainly not. Every statesman, especially the true friends of Italy, would exclaim against provoking a conflict now. There is not a Government in Europe which would not lose by tumult. All of the royal class would be disposed to chastise that one which should be con- victed of the offence of provoking tumult. Should the approach of war be sufficiently apparent, all would agree in steps to pre- vent it ; and the obvious step for that purpose is, to summon a European Congress. Congress would reassemble under circumstances entirely changed from those of 1856. By its own acts in 1857 our Go- vernment suffered its will to be thwarted, and drifted back into a baffled and passive position, fully to recover from which no ade- quate opportunity has presented itself. In the actual circum- stances of the present day, it is France and Russia who share the ascendancy, it is they who stand forward as the patrons of mode- rate Liberalism ; and it is France who has taken the initiative and would probably be again president of a congress at Paris. In this Parisian view, Congress might be made to serve all the pur- poses of a war. But the public opinion of Europe, once more mustered in Con- gress, would not again be disposed to subserve the one-sided pur- poses of an untransaeted war : it would more probably insist on restoring the purposes of peace ; and it might find plenty to do in that behalf.
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