Twelve to watch

Robin Oakley

‘Look here, Sunshine,’ I remember Eric Morecambe responding to a raised eyebrow from André Previn about the comedian’s musical efforts. ‘I am playing the right notes, just maybe not in the right order.’ My tipping goes like that too.

For the previous Flat season I suggested that William Haggas’s Conquest might ‘pop up at a nice price later in the season’. So he did. Unfortunately, Conquest’s 40–1 victory in the Stewards’ Cup and his 16–1 handicap victory happened not in the 2007 season but in the one just ended.

After our healthy profit over jumps the Flat Twelve sadly proved more a case of appreciating quality than counting profits. But it takes only one horse to give you a joyful season and Raven’s Pass did that for me. Though he won Goodwood’s Celebration Mile it took him until his fourth attempt (after three seconds) to start beating Henrythenavigator, which he did at 3–1 in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. He then gloriously repeated the feat at 8–1 to take the Breeder’s Cup Classic in America.

There were victories in classy company too for Henry Candy’s sprinter Corrybrough and for Richard Hannon’s Major Cadeaux. John Oxx’s Katiyra, who finished third in the Oaks and second in the Irish equivalent, won a couple of Irish contests too. But sadly all three were so well backed to win their races that they made little impression on the bank balance. The same was true of Aidan O’Brien’s Psalm in her one victory.

Il Warrd, moved on from Marcus Tregoning to Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor, won nicely over seven furlongs at Redcar. But, second in the Jersey Stakes at Ascot and fourth in the Betfair Cup to Paco Boy, he kept running well, though not quite well enough, in distinguished company. Punters need sparing from over-ambitious owners.

Godolphin’s Schiaparelli came back from an 11-month absence with a nice second to Zambezi Sun, then led coming into the straight in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, only to fade.

Honky Tonk Sally was never seen again on the track after stumbling out of the stalls one day at Great Leighs. That’s Hot too ran only once, which was once more than Mark Johnston’s Upper Class. And Mark’s Endless Luck failed to live up to his name, running, promisingly, just the once, at Haydock.

The real frustration was Barry Hills’s Prime Defender. I knew Barry fancied his prospects and he confirmed that by running him ten times, taking in most of the top sprints. Rarely getting the ground he needed, he never ran a bad race, for example beaten just two lengths in the July Cup at 40–1. Every time he ran well enough to make you think ‘next time will be the one’. Horses who do that can prove costly. He never did win.

Our sobering details overall? In total 47 runs, 10 victories, 8 seconds and 4 third places. Outlay at £10 a time: £470. Returns: £308. Bad news, but at least it has done less harm to my capital than my pension fund investors have done ...

Now for the jumping season ahead, as usual with the help of Timeform’s Chasers and Hurdlers 2007/08 (£70 from Portway Press Ltd, Halifax, West Yorkshire HX1 IXF Tel 01422 330330). The succinct summaries on each horse are punctuated as ever by thoughtful essays, for example a demolition job on the anti-Grand National brigade (Comply or Die), a portrait of French jockey Christophe Pieux (Kasbah Bliss), and thoughts on the use of the whip (Miko de Beauchene — who goes into our list as a Grand National candidate).

You could pick all 12 from Paul Nicholls’s yard. I won’t because you rarely get a fair price on his horses, but if I did Master Minded, Herecomesthetruth, I’msingingtheblues and Kicks for Free would be included. So would Neptune Collonges, third in this year’s Gold Cup.

I like to include a few from lesser-known yards so Nick Williams’s Diamond Harry is my next choice. Before this season the only two races in his life were two victories in the country’s most valuable bumper. Now he has started winning over hurdles.

Donald McCain’s Whiteoak won the David Nicholson memorial contest race at Cheltenham and could mop up again in mares’ races.

Emma Lavelle said she’d never before been kissed by so many than when winning at the Festival with Crack Away Jack. As one of them I have to include her Champion Hurdle hopeful, especially since he has already demonstrated progress since.

Mobaasher, who was transferred from Charlie Mann to Paul Nicholls, was in last year’s 12. He won but will have improved for a wind operation since. I considered retaining him but instead will go for Nigel Twiston-Davies’s tough Pettifour, who beat Mobaasher on his recent return.

Charlie Mann has been having a good early season. He deserves to win a big race and Air Force One probably represents his best hope so far. Venetia Williams could win a nice prize or two with her New Zealandbred chaser Stan.

Timeform was impressed with the one chase contested and won last season by the lightly raced grey Money Trix. He’ll win good chases if Nicky Richards can keep him sound.

After Nicky Henderson’s Petit Robin disappointed first time out he told me that he was a much better horse than he’d looked. He then went on to beat the useful Beshabar and with Nicky’s horses flying this year he should put some runs on the scoreboard.

From Ireland rope in Fantoche, said to be impressing Jessica Harrington and Tom Cooper’s Forpaddydeplasterer. My friend Paul Green has the promising Humble Opinion with Alan King, who admits he’s very sweet on Ortolan. So let’s finish with those two from the man they’re calling ‘The Next Paul Nicholls’. ❑