THE EUROPEAN OUTLOOK.
LORD SALISBURY'S declaration that the European outlook is pacific to the point of dullness, has this week received a striking confirmation. On Wednesday, the Times' correspondent at Vienna published a piece of news which, if true, and we see no reason whatever to doubt it, is of the utmost importance as an indication that the Emperor of Russia has at present not only no hostile intentions towards his neighbours, but does not believe that any circum- stances are likely to arise which will induce them to act in a manner contrary to his interests. All the infantry and artillery soldiers recruited in 1885, 1886, and 1887 are, says the telegram to which we allude, to be discharged into the Reserve immediately after the forthcoming summer manoeuvres. The effect of this regulation will be a very considerable reduction in the numbers of the standing army. The recruits of 1887, under ordinary circumstances, would have remained two years longer with the colours, and those of 1886 one. The result of passing them into the Reserve at once will therefore be to diminish greatly the fighting strength of the forces of the Czar. In addition, it is announced that from the beginning of next year, the normal term of service is to be reduced from five to four years for the whole of the infantry and foot artillery. The decree passing the men of 1886 and 1887 out of the ranks before they have served their full term is, it will be seen, the exact opposite of an order for mobilisation. The one increases, the other decreases the force available for active service. If, then, mobilisation is to be regarded as a signal for war, the new Russian regulations must assuredly be taken to indicate that the Czar has no intention to embark at the present time upon enter- prises dangerous to the peace of Europe. If he were contemplating the notion of meeting the Triple Alliance in arms, the last thing he would do would be to dismiss a body of men at the very moment when they have been turned into valuable soldiers.
The fact that the Emperor William will, in the course of the next day or two, pay a visit to the Russian capital, is another sign that the peace of Europe is in no danger of disturbance. It is evident that the German Kaiser realises that only if Russia is kept in good humour can war be avoided, and further, that by rendering special acts of courtesy to the Czar, that monarch can be in some measure prevented from assuming a position of hostility towards the allies. The moment is by no means unpro- pitious for approaching Russia with pacific proposals. The notion of entering into closer political relations with France seems for the time to have been completely aban- doned at St. Petersburg. Had General Boulanger sue-. ceeded, and either made himself dictator, or played the part of General Monk to the Comte de Paris, it is by no means unlikely that a virtual alliance would have been concluded between the two Powers. The survival of the Parliamen- tary Republic seems, however, to have convinced the Czar that it is useless to consider the question of an under- standing with France. There is no chance of an autocracy being established, and except with an autocracy it is, he believes, impossible for him to treat. Ministers who depend upon Parliamentary majorities doubtless appear to the Russian Emperor as entirely unworthy of his confi- dence, and he has therefore of late given little encourage- ment to the French overtures for the formation of an alliance. In vain the Parisian newspapers of all shades of opinion flatter the Czar and the Russian people, lampoon " the Coburger," and denounce " the murder " of Major. Panitza. The Czar remains obdurate in his dislike and distrust of a Government which, though it may for reasons of high policy arrest Nihilists, seems to him a standing encouragement to all the worst tendencies of modern times. Anything like mutual trust and confi- dence between himself and a democratic Republic is regarded, therefore, as utterly out of the question, and, accordingly, there is no reason why the arch-enemy of France should not be listened to with courtesy and respect. Yet another incident has contributed to make the German Sovereign's visit acceptable just now in Russia. The Emperor, while on his recent visit to Heligoland, declared that the incorporation of the island " entirely completed the union of the German Empire." These words, we are informed by Reuter—and it must be remembered that in regard to such matters as these, this agency telegraphs, not the mere opinions of particular correspondents, but official communiqu4s —have produced an excellent impression in Russian political circles. And for this reason. They are held to imply a condemnation of the German Chauvinist views regarding territories such as the Baltic Provinces. The inhabitants of those regions, it will be remembered, are largely of German origin, and speak the tongue of the Fatherland. The provinces have, accordingly, always been looked on as a fit subject for a cry of Germania Irredenta. Many patriotic Germans have cast a longing eye towards them, and whenever the persecution of the Lutherans by the Orthodox Church has grown acute, a great deal of in- dignation has arisen across the border. If, then, the Russians are right in regarding the Emperbr's words as indicating the abandonment of all desire for incorporating Courland, Esthonia, and Livonia with the Fatherland, it is not to be wondered that they express themselves grati- fied. It is something as if Prussia in 1869 had let it be understood that Strasburg and Alsace ought no longer to be regarded as places some day to be won back for Germany. It is possible, of course, that the Emperor meant nothing special by his words, and that the interpretation they have received is quite erroneous. It is, however, far more likely that they were in reality intended to be conciliatory to Russia. Emperors weigh their words on such formal occasions as that of the Heligoland speech, and it is exceedingly improbable that the words were not meant to help in smoothing the course of the forthcoming negotia- tions at St. Petersburg.
If we consider the position of the Emperor William, it is clear that his present aim is to show the world that he can play Prince Bismarck's game, and play it better than the ex-Chancellor. He has already done what the great diplomatist never succeeded in doing—united Heligoland to Germany, and he now desires to let his subjects see that he will be equally successful in preserving the peace of Europe. Prince Bismarck was trusted by the German people because they believed that he, mid he alone, could manage to ward off an appeal to arms. The Emperor is anxious above all things to inspire a similar sentiment. It is, then, all-important for him to secure the good-will of Russia. The Czar is the cardinal factor of the situation. If he can be kept quiet, there is not the slightest fear of any outbreak of hostilities. If, however, he quarrels with Austria, Bulgaria, or Turkey, Germany must sooner or later be plunged into a struggle for existence. The arguments upon which the Emperor intends to rely in his efforts to ingratiate himself with the Czar, are of course not known to the world. Possibly he may offer to exert his influence at Constantinople to force the Turks to do justice to their Armenian subjects. Again, it is not inconceivable that he may intervene to prevent the Porte accepting M. Stam- bouloff's offers of alliance, or may in other ways, by working on Bulgaria, Austria, and, indeed, England, in- duce the Powers concerned to join heartily in maintaining unimpaired the status quo. That he will be successful, or rather, that his visit will put the corner-stone to a diplomatic structure already nearly completed, is, we think, a matter hardly open to doubt. The European outlook is, then, on the whole, exceedingly reassuring. Our only fear is that the situation may develop into one of false security. Up to now, one of the chief guarantees for peace has been the imminent dread of war. No Power durst move lest it should precipitate a catastrophe ; and the fear of hostilities acted like an enchanter's wand, and held the nations spell-bound to the status quo. If, however, things settle down into an apparently peaceful condition, though all the time the essentials of the situation remain un- changed, is there not a danger that some one country may forget herself, and by an awkward movement upset the deh- cate balance upon which the security of Europe depends ?
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