THE CHINESE REVOLT.
IF the telegrams from China as to the revolt in the Southern provinces are not exaggerated, and if the Triads—the strongest and most dreaded of all the Chinese secret societies—have really joined the insurgents, we may be on the eve of one of the most momentous revolutions that have ever affected Asia. If the revolt spreads—and mind, if it does spread, it will be like wildfire and not by any smouldering process—and if the Manchus fail to meet it and crush it, the whole Chinese Empire will be on fire, and very possibly all the European Powers who have possessions that march with Chinese territory—Russia, France, England, and now Germany—will be placed in a position of extreme difficulty. It is possible, of course, that the revolt may after all come to nothing, but we assume for the moment that it is a serious movement. This granted, it becomes of great interest to consider what will be the possible and probable effects.
Let us begin by considering what would happen if, after a bloody struggle, the Manchus were to succeed in putting down the rebels by means of their own resources. That, we admit, is not a very likely thing to happen ; but suppose it did, it is clear that the Government at Pekin would be very much braced and strengthened by the effort. To put down a rebellion in a district with a population equal to that of France and Germany must mean the creation of an efficient army. But if an efficient army were created to put down rebels at home it might be used to keep off invaders from abroad. An unsuccessful rebellion on a great scale might, that is, save China. Take next the far more likely case that Pekin would alone be utterly unable to carry out a great campaign, and that she would be forced to seek military help from abroad, as in the case of the Taeping Rebellion. Under present circumstances we may be pretty sure that the would-be Gordon if he were a white man, and not a Japanese, would be a Russian. Let us suppose Russia to have lent a body of able officers to the Chinese. Can we doubt that if they won the battle for her, China would at once pass under the military tutelage of Russia ? But must we assume that a Chinese army, even when led by Russian officers, would be able to put down a rebellion on the scale of the Taeping rising, for, remember, that is what we are contemplating ? We think it more than doubtful. Gordon had a very hard task and only just succeeded. But in his time Pekin was not nearly so "hopeless and helpless" as it is just now. Again, Gordon had a fair field, and no European Power was other than anxious that he should win the battle. A Russian Gordon under existing circumstances could expect no such benevolent feeling. If England knew that his success would mean the control of China by Russia, she could not be expected to be very anxious to see him successful. The result would be that English influences in the revolted provinces, though not of course actively hostile, might very likely be of a kind that would encourage the rebels. If the rebels were to set up a form of government in Southern China, and were to show them- selves possessed of real military force, the British Govern- ment might well argue that it would be more to our advantage to see them retain their position than to witness their destruction. Such an attitude, though it did not involve any active help, would distinctly improve the hances of the rebels. We could not be expected to welcome the invasion of the Yangtse Valley by a Russian Gordon, and this might be enough to turn the scale and to pre- vent the putting down of the rebellion. Another alterna- tive to be considered is the complete success of the rebels, --their conquest of Pekin, the destruction of the Manchu dynasty, and the restoration of the old line of the Mings, which for some strange reason, probably of a ceremonial kind, has been allowed to linger on for two hundred years in secure insignificance. The secret societies are said to have an esoteric rhyme which bids them- " Out with the Ching, In with the Ming," and if they won they would doubtless try their best to carry it out. But the destruction of the Manchu rulers of China, and the substitution for them of a new dynasty the product of the sword, must have the most far-reaching effect. It might make a new and very strong barrier against the Russian advance. In fact, Russia, who dreams of inheriting the power of the Manchus, would find herself forestalled.
We have taken the alternatives of an unsuccessful and of a successful revolt, but it is needless to say that they are not the only alternatives. It is quite possible that the revolt may be half successful, and the rebels may go on attacking the dying Empire for many years. China, as we pointed out before, is a great sperm-whale attacked from many sides. The rebels may only prove the addi- tion of another harpooner. That is, the rebellion may simply fall into line as one of many disintegrating forces. While the European Powers are tearing off great pieces from outside, the rebels may be tearing them off inside. Perhaps the best way to understand the possi- bilities in the case of China is to take the case of the Mogul Empire. Three forces destroyed the Moguls. First, there was the internal weakness, and the tendency of the great Satraps to revolt, or rather revolt in all but name, for even when most insolent and lawless they liked to get their grant from Delhi. Next, there was the "nibbling " round the coasts done by France and England, and even Denmark and Holland,—a "nibbling" which soon resulted in the acquisition of large tracts of country. Then came a great internal revolt,—the rise of the Mahratta power. The effect of the revolt was to intensify the other tendencies towards disintegration. The " Nizams " and " Nabobs," when they had to organise armies to defend themselves against internal enemies, had half learnt the lesson of throwing off the Imperial yoke. Again, even a province whose ruler did not want to revolt was forced to become independent when it was cut off by the rebels from all communication with the central Government. Lastly, the fear of the rebels threw the Viceroys into the hands of the foreigners. They needed protection, and when they could not get it from Delhi, sought it from the English or the French. Thus, though the Mahrattas never completely conquered India, they greatly stimulated its disintegration. But for Sivajee and his successors, the Empire would have perished far more slowly. In all probability it will be the same in China. If the rebellion spreads, and, though it does not succeed in utterly destroying the Manchus, allows the rebels to hold their own, and makes them a. great force, we shall at once see a, tendency begin in the Mandarins who rule the great provinces to act independently and to seek foreign influence and help. Those provincial Governments that are not submerged will stand up like independent islands in a sea of anarchy. Thus internal disintegration and foreign plunder will go hand-in-hand. One province will become, first geographically and then politically, almost independent, and another will be seized by some foreign Power and " temporarily occupied " in order to prevent it being wasted by the rebels. But, it will be urged, when Russia sees all this beginning she will enter and peremptorily put a stop to the rebellion. Will she ? A hornets' nest is not a place into which even the strongest of men likes to put his head, and China in the condition we have described will be far worse than any hornets' nest. China in anarchy would want an army of a million men to keep her quiet, if the job had to be done quickly. We ate the Indian arti- choke leaf by leaf, and yet were once or twice nearly choked, but people seem to imagine that Russia can safely bolt twice as big an artichoke whole without any danger. Any way, the possibility of a, great Chinese revolt is most im- portant, and the movement will necessarily be watched by the civilised world with intensest interest. If the Manchus determine to have white soldiers to help them, their best plan, as soon as the war is over, will be to get Americans. They will not excite jealousy, and,will not imperil Chinese independence by looking to their own Government. But suppose, as is rumoured, the Chinese discard all white help and ask for a Japanese Gordon, and that we see a, Japanese military caste controlling China and organising a native army and navy ? That will, indeed, be the Yellow Peril of which Russia will have to take heed. A thick Chinese spear-shaft with a head of Japanese steel would make a weapon that no soldier could afford to despise.
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