M. DELCASSE'S TRIUMPH.
E may, we think, heartily congratulate France upon V V the result of her quarrel with the Sultan. M. Deleasse has succeeded without any extravagant waste of her resources, and without arousing dangerous jealousies in Europe, in recovering much of her previously decayed influence in the Near East. The details scarcely matter in presence of the general result. The Sultan, who was almost defiant, has yielded, has paid debts which he had de- clined to pay, has acknowledged. the French right to protect Latin. missions—it is more than French missions, for the Chaldaean Patriarchate is not a French mission—and has recognised that for the future when his word is passed to a French Ambassador he must keep it. Henceforward, that is, France will be regarded at Constantinople as a great Power, one whom it is not safe to offend, because she dare run the risk, the great risk, of employing force to coerce the Sultan. The risk may have been minimised by previous negotiations with the Powers, but that would only increase the impression on the mind of the Turks, who find that the master whom they think so adroit, as well as so powerful, has been outmanceuvred, as well as threatened, with success. The shock to the Sultan when he found that all his friends had deserted him, that he could not trust Germany any more than Great Britain or Russia, must have been overwhelming, and its impact will be felt by the whole body of his agents, from whom the Mussulman world derives most of its public opinion. That is a great triumph for M. Delcassd, and it will do no immediate injury to any European cause. The change will reducethe previously overweening influence of Germany at Constantinople, and restore the old position under which Turkey was a nominally independent Power con- trolled as regards external affairs by a European Com- mittee. That is a safer position for Europe while it has to wait than the one which it has superseded, and which might within a very short time have rendered armed collision between the Dual Alliance and the Triple Alliance absolutely inevitable. They were much more likely to fight for Anatolia and the Balkans than for Alsace-Lorraine.
Moreover, the result cannot but exercise a most bene- ficial influence upon the internal politics of France. The weak point of the Republic was its want of external repute, of the prestige in Europe missing which French- men fret, and think that their rulers, however successful internally, are in some way lowering the flag of Frame. They will .be greatly ':consoled by the Turkish adventure. Their view of the situation will be that M. Delcasse exacted reparation for an affront fram a powerful Monarch, that all the Courtsof Europe are envious and ''displeased, and yet that no Court has ventured .to interfere... Great Britain may be out of the running, thongh they doubt that while they say it, but Germany certainly is not, and Germany only looked on -submit while Admiral Caillard compelled the Sultan to -submit to' force. 'Vie; RepUblic, then, is strong as well as reasonable: That will be the conclusion of .every peasant, and Will help with many other causes, to secure at the coming electiong Victory to the Republic. As we hold that victory tohe a blessing to France and a guarantee to the rest of Europe, we can feel cordial pleasure in M. Delcass6's easily won success.
And yet there is another side to the whole matter which is not so pleasing to the reflective. This collection of private debts by cruisers is a very bad and dangerous precedent. The capitalists of the world, pressed by the fall in the rate of interest and their own sharp competi- tion, are wild to obtain control of speculations and con- cessions in the semi-civilised States, which when they succeed build up in amazingly short periods fortunes like that of the late Baron Hirsch. The only check upon them is the risk they incur from the caprices and ignorance of semi-barbarous rulers, and if the fleets and armies of the great States are to be at their disposal this check will dis- appear. China and Siam; Brazil and Argentina, may be: coerced as readily as Turkey, if the Great Powers hold aloof and declare, as on this occasion, that " this is our common interest," and the peace of the world, already at the mercy of Sovereigns and ill-informed bodies of electors, may also be endangered by syndicates and millionaires eager only to realise extravagant profits. That is a real increase to the world's dangers, especially at this moment, when the Governments, pressed by their dread of Socialism, and keenly alive to the poverty of their rapidly increasing populations, are almost as eager that speculators should succeed as the speculators themselves. With the single exception of Great Britain, where the belief in private enterprise still lingers, and is perhaps strengthened by the faint scorn of the older -school of diplomatists for " mere money-getters," every State instructs its Ambas- sadors not only to protect commerce, but to support " industrial enterprise," which means in practice the vestment of great sums in new railways, mines, canals, ports, quays, and the supply of amenities like healthy water and artificial light to great half-civilised cities. If properties of this kind are to be protected by, arms, the semi-civilised Stateswill become-magasin.es of economic gun- powder, which may explode at any moment. Turkey is one already, and China very nearly one. The latter has been drenched for the moment, but the European danger from the present position of Turkey is extreme, and arises from two causes. One is that the European States, Great Britain ex- cepted, are eagerly desirous to " exploit " her, so that, as we said last week, Russia and Germany are silently battling over concessions in Anatolia ; and France will demand an economic protectorate over Syria ;. while Austria and Italy hunger for commerce with the Levant, with which French pretensions are incompatible. There will be perpetual friction in the search for profits. The other is that Turkey is not really so powerless as she is deemed, and that all this pressure, which will be greatly accentuated by French success, may have a sanguinary result. The Turks are bitterly irritated by their humiliations, they may resolve to die as they have lived, a fighting 'caste, and their re- sources are not yet exhausted. A strong Sultan could still place in the field an army of six hundred thousand of the bravest soldiers in the world, defend his coasts and ports with torpedo-boats, and even in defeat inflict terrible blows upon his conqueror. It is true that the advent of a strong Sultan is most improbable, the race of Othman appearing at last to be worn out ; but a Sultan weak as a Merovin- gian is quite probable, and a strong Mayor of the Palace or Grand. Vizier would be even more dangerous, because replaceable. A ruler of Turkey who threw all caution to the winds, summoned every Osmanli to his standard, stopped all payments except for munitions of war, and fought as the Mandi fought at Omdurman, would, to begin with, shatter all European alliances, might hold in check for three years any single European Power, and might while being defeated cause an explosion such as Europe has not had to face since the Spahis threatened Vienna. The Sick Man will bequeath nothing, and the whole Western world desires his heritage. The catastrophe may ..not come just-yet, for the strange being who now occupies:the throne of Turkey,-and who will neither yield nor fight,'seems irremovable; but it cannot be put off for ever, and every blow such as the' one M. -Delcassd has just delivered brings us nearer' to its occurrence. If history affords us any guidance, the Turk will die biting' haid. ' •
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