TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE ONE HOPE OF PEACE. THERE is not much to inspirit dreamers in the present position of Europe. There never was a period when force ruled it more completely. We may talk about the sovereignty of opinion and the kindly rule of universal law ; but the Kings and their great servants are as free to act as they were in the seventeenth century, and by "action " they, as of old, mean moving armies. They cannot now, any more than they could then, directly defy their people, or neglect their soldiers' wishes ; but the issues of peace and war are as completely in the hands of individuals as ever. The policy of Prince Bismarck is condemned, or at all events questioned, by all Germany, but he is left as free to act as ever was Richelieu or Olivarez. If Francis Joseph gives the order, half a million of men will move just as obediently as fifty thousand would have done at the command of Leopold L; while Alexander III is as free to spare or to destroy his Netherlands, Bulgaria, as ever Philip II. was. Philip could not do it if France or England interfered by force, nor can Alexander if Germany or England declare war ; but otherwise, the Emperor of our day may ruin States out of self-will, or ambition, or policy, with as little fear of retribution as the King of the sixteenth century. The recent scene in Bulgaria is exactly like a scene in the old Netherlands, with the Dutch demanding freedom, and Philip sitting at Madrid plotting schemes, raying out arrogant Ambassadors, and sanctioning personal attacks on the petty Prince who, in the interest of freedom and his own fame, had ventured to defy him. Indeed, the situation is worse now in one respect than it was then. The Dutch had a chance of resisting their mighty enemy, for regular armies were small, and war was not so costly ; and even a small State, if it only rose to the level of circumstances, could turn out force sufficient to resist the few soldiers whom a great one could collect for an invasion. No one believes that now of Bulgaria if Russia persists. Alexander Ill., if he fought with both hands, could pour into the little State an army exceeding in number its adult male population, while that population, even if it were ready for so despairing an effort, could not place itself en masse in the field. It would not-have the necessary rifles, or the needful cartridges, or the indispensable commissariat. Science and the financiers, the two new powers of our time, have declared for the Kings ; and the peoples opposed to armies are like the old footmen, through whom the knights rode in armour and on horseback, slaying them at their will. The strength of Kings, too, is used as relentlessly as of old. Alexander of Russia hates Alexander of Bulgaria as personally as ever Philip II. hated William the Silent, and his kidnappers are more successful than Philip's assassins. He would not, perhaps, send an Alva to sacrifice captives in thousands ; but he would, if he could, crash out Bulgarian freedom as pitilessly as ever Philip tried to crush out the freedom of the Netherlands. The wars of reli- gion are over ; but motives nearly as strong as religious hate influence the nations, and steel the hearts of those who guide the destinies of European mankind. It is not much gain to the burning city that it was not set on fire becuse it was heretical, but only because-it opposed the "destiny" of a foreign Power.
In our time, there has been no spectacle so disheartening, and at the same time so exasperating, as that now presented in Eastern Europe. These Bulgarians, an industrious and quiet people, profoundly desirous of living like the Swiss, making money by painful work and thrift, and getting education by patient study, had only just gained their freedom from servitude to an Asiatic horde, which just before it retreated had outdone itself in destructive violence. They had organised themselves so well that order had become perfect, that their new and free Parliament was readily obeyed, that in their first war with an equal Power they had achieved by hard fighting an unexpected and conspicuous triumph. They had found a Prince who led them well, and who so suited their ideal that loyalty, "the cheap defence of nations," had been fully born towards him ; and that they would to-morrow, if they were free, make him " KIng, by the grace of God and the will of the people." They had, in fact, founded a free State, fit to become the centre of a strong defensive federation. In a moment, just because the Emperor of Russia disliked and dreaded Bulgarian freedom as an insult to himself and an obstacle to his people, the scene was changed ; the Bulgarian Government was extinguished, the popular Prince driven into exile, and the right of election as regards him was abro- gated for ever. A foreign Envoy was sent into Bulgaria to teach the Provisional Government what to do, to buy its regiments, and to preach to its people in its own cities. the need for insurrection. Even under these circumstances, the Bulgarians behaved with a self-command and steady modera- tion which the historian of the future will declare to be admirable, and which has hitherto been unprecedented in Europe. They refused to listen to the Envoy, but they neither stoned nor insulted him, keeping their tempers under insult as only men can do who possess political sense. They obeyed their ad interim Government with- out discussing its legality. They met at the polling-booths all over the State, and, wherever there were no Russians, in profound order, and they returned a Great Assembly which no one doubts would, were it only free, maintain order, develop the Constitution, and create a strong but quiet Monarchical regime under the Prince of the people's choice. Yet all these sufferings, and efforts, and successes, these qualities and these good fortunes, are to be in vain. The Russian Emperor does not approve the total result, and it is said on all hands that the Bulgarians, though they attack no one, cannot keep their freedom. If they try to do it, they will be forced by a multitude of Russian soldiers to give way under penalty of death. They have not the numbers or the rifles to resist the will of the Czar in the field, and the nations of Europe are so jealous of each other' and so fearful of a general war, that unless Hungary finds her own interests too directly menaced for endurance, no positive help can arrive to Sofia, the Bulgarians must yield, and their leaders must expiate in Siberia the offence of guarding, by moral means only, the freedom of their own land. The work may take months, but in the end, the politicians say, Alexander III, will be as absolute in Philippopolis as in Moscow.
It seems too monstrous to believe ; yet, if the Emperor of Russia shrinks from a failure, which, we admit most fully, he has the gravest reason to dread, and if it be true, as reported, that Prince Bismarck refuses to consider even the military occupation of Bulgaria a sufficient reason for Austria going to war, what calculable hope is there in the situation? The Hapsburgs, it is declared, will, if Germany shrinks back, prefer compensation to the risks of a single-handed war with the huge Slav Power. France, intent on regaining her provinces and her position in Europe, will not attack Russia. England, "staggering under the too vast orb of her fate," with her troops scattered over the world, could not undertake single-handed the rescue of the Bulgarians, even if her people were not, as they are, eager to remain at peace. Turkey, though seriously threatened, is not strong enough to wage a war which, even with Bulgarian aid, she must inevitably lose. There is, say the keenest observers, no sign of help on earth, and we have no means of even suggesting in what way their judgment is incorrect. There are the chances that the Emperor of Russia may shrink from an enterprise in which failure would be ruin ; that the Hapsburgs, afraid of Hungary, might resolve on war single-handed; or that all Europe, catching fire at so naked an appeal to force, might forbid the occupation ; but they are all bad chances,—so bad, that the diplomatists, even the English, see their only hope in bidding the Regents give Russia as little offence as possible. Count Kalnoky publicly sends that advice, and Lord Iddesleigh, if we may believe the Times' traveller in the Balkans, is backing Count Kalnoky. If they can and will bear everything, then, perhaps, Alexander III. may not make up his mind to send his soldiers to suppress them. This, it is confidently alleged, is the one hope of peace ; and there is not a statesman in Europe who will as confidently deny that it is so.
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