POLITICS
Mrs Thatcher takes her pruning shears to Austria
BRUCE ANDERSON
Guns out on the grouse moors; the Prime Minister in Austria: it must be the the silly season at last. Away from West- minster, MPs can relax, renew acquaint- anceship with their families, and think about their prospects in the September reshuffle. For it is certain that the PM is spending part of what she laughingly calls her holiday in making the final disposi- tions. Churchill said that the best holiday was a change of work: Mrs Thatcher would enthusiastically agree — but in her case there is no change.
Whatever she decides, she will be criti- cised. If it is a small reshuffle, scorn will be poured on the feeble substitution of Boo- dle and Doodle for Coodle and Foodle. If she has a night of the long knives, then she will be accused of punishing her minions for her own failures, and someone will recall how Nigel Birch congratulated Mac- millan on keeping his head when all about him were losing theirs. But this time, that someone is unlikely to be a Tory backben- cher.
Among Tories, the consensus is for as large a reshuffle as possible, the more blood on the carpet the better. The fewer the changes, the greater the disappoint- ment will be — but for all that, the Tory ranks are preparing themselves for dis- appointment: all the indications are that Mrs Thatcher has taken her pruning shears to Austria, but not her axe.
Speculating on the actual moves is a hazardous business — la donna e mobile. But there are some indications to guide us. It now seems that contrary to earlier rumours Lord Hailsham will remain in office. Those who visit the Lords for the first time and are lucky enough to see the Lord Chancellor in action, sometimes draw the wrong conclusion. After witnessing sundry bishops tossed and gored, they stagger away thinking that the old boy is gaga. Not so: he has always been like that, and if anything has mellowed in recent years. And if he is slightly over the hill, it is a very high hill. Also, he makes a distinc- tive contribution to the proceedings of Cabinet committees. On one occasion the problem of stray dogs in Belfast was raised: it was proposed to hire dog-catchers. Lord Gowrie, who was then the minister re- sponsible, possibly did not take the matter quite seriously — which led to great indignation from Lord Hailsham, a dog lover, who at one stage told Gowrie: If you don't shut up, I'll bite you in the ankle.' On another day, a committee was considering bee-keeping. The Lord Chan- cellor discoursed long and learnedly on the ailments to which bees are subject, and quoted extensively from Virgil. From this we can conclude that Lord Hailsham is indispensible, which is not true of certain Cabinet committees.
Patrick Jenkin, Peter Rees and Michael Jopling are expected to leave the Govern- ment. Mr Jenkin indeed may very well be looking towards a career in the City. John Gummer will be moved to a minister of state's post, and Norman Tebbit will be- come Party Chairman.
When it comes to new faces in the Cabinet, the main question in Mrs Thatch- er's mind is whether or not to recall Cecil Parkinson. Her instincts are to do so, though in some quarters it is felt that the risks outweigh the advantages. At the moment, there is a better than even chance that Mr Parkinson will be back, probably at his old job in the Department of Industry. However, if the better-notters should prevail, then Norman Fowler is likely to move to the DTI.
If it is Mr Parkinson, then he will have one difficulty that may not have been anticipated. He is a good communicator, and therefore urgently needed in the pre- sent Cabinet. But he cannot single- handedly turn night into day, and yet the scale of expectation that has built up around his presentational skills requires little less. If he is brought back, and the publicity mistakes continue, then in three or four months' time those who are now clamouring for his return will be loudest in voicing disillusion. But that risk is certainly worth taking.
Another problem which Mrs Thatcher has taken on holiday with her is the future of the Department of Employment. Over the past few months, the tensions between Tom King's ministry and David (Lord) Young's Enterprise Unit have grown to a scale reminiscent of the days of George Brown's DEA versus Jim Callaghan's Treasury. Here again Mrs Thatcher's in- stincts are in conflict with the better- notters. She is tempted to merge the Enterprise Unit in the Department of Employment in a sort of reverse takeover: the intention would be to recast the De- partment in the unit's mould. This new super-ministry, entitled the Department of Employment, Science and Training, would be headed by Lord Young, while Tom King would be banished to replace Mr Jopling at agriculture. However, Lord Young is a peer: imagine what a fuss the Labour Party would make if the Employment Secretary were in the Lords. But this is one occasion on which Mrs Thatcher should take her own advice. Politically, the Young approach is the best the Government has available to tackle unemployment.
Certainly, there would be a devil of a row about his being in the Lords — but these parliamentary rows have only a limited resonance with the public, who tend to regard them as so much yah- booery, and who are not really dear anyway about the difference between Cabinet and non-Cabinet ministers, Also, if she were to appoint, say, Chris Patten to be Lord Young's deputy and Commons spokesman, then, such is his popularity with liberal commentators and in the Com- mons, much of the heat would be taken out of the situation. If the public came to think that Mr Patten was in the Cabinet — so much the better for the Cabinet.
As regards the other Cabinet promo- tions, John Moore is likely to become Chief Secretary, and Kenneth Baker is the favourite to replace Patrick Jenkin. At lower levels, Barney Hayhoe, Adam But- ler, David Mitchell, John Butcher, and Neil MacFarlane may find it necessary to acquire the virtue of resignation, while Carol Mather and Bob Boscawen will retire from the Whips' Office. Chris Pat- ten, John Patten, David Mellor, David Hunt, Allan Stewart and John Major are in line for promotion, while Michael Howard, George Walden, Richard Ryder and Nicholas Soames are the best bets for new boys to join the Government. So some new faces and some old blood — but not enough to satisfy the mob. They will still be making thumbs-down signals long after the Empress has left the arena. In particular, they would like the heads of Messrs Lawson, Ridley, and Joseph. Few Chancellors in history have been more formidably equipped for the job than Mr Lawson: but where is the performance to match the potential? Mr Ridley is an able watercolourist, as befits a grandson of Lutyens, but clearly believes that sensitiv- ity is appropriate to aesthetics, but not to politics. As for Sir Keith, when the Youn- ghusband expedition reached Lhasa, it was found that one of the most senior Tibetan officials had the title 'The Abbot of Meta- physics'. It is Sir Keith's misfortune that this post, which he is uniquely qualified to fill, is unknown to the British Constitution.
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