TOPICS OF THE DAY.

THE FUTURE OF PORTUGAL.

AGREAT conveyancer of a past generation is said to have observed that the great advantage of a marriage was that it enabled the lawyers to ask questions which

could not be asked with propriety on any other occasion. The votaries of eugenics may think this a somewhat Early Victorian way of looking upon marriage, but undoubtedly there is a good deal of practical wisdom in the view. What is true of the marriages of private individuals is also true of those greater ceremonies in which the titular and hereditary heads of nations are concerned. It often happens that at the assemblies of heads of State and politicians for celebrating some royal marriage an oppor- tunity is given for discussing and settling amicably points which have been long the subject of doubt and difficulty.

Such a marriage is about to take place in Germany, owing to the healing of the long feud between the Prussian Royal House and the deposed House of Hanover. That this conflict should be closed—though it is an internal matter

which does not directly concern Englishmen—is a subject for congratulation, owing to the connexion between the Cumberland family and our own Sovereign. It has been stated that the King will be accompanied in his journey to Berlin by Sir Edward Grey. If this is a well- founded statement, as we sincerely trust it may be, let us hope that the opportunity will be taken to ask and answer a good many questions.

We do not mean by these words to suggest that the marriage and the reconciliation between the Prussian Royal Family and that of the Duke of Cumberland should be made an occasion for an attempt to establish an entente between us and Germany. The conflict in regard to sea power and domination on the Continent, as we should put it, or domination on the oceans of the world, as the Germans would put it, is far too big a matter to be settled in this kind of way. Though we are far from saying that the friction at present existing can never be composed, it is not a matter susceptible of casual conciliation. Our suggestion is of a much humbler and less ambitious kind. It is that Sir Edward Grey, on behalf of the British Government, and the German Chancellor, on behalf of his Government, should amicably discuss the question of some better settlement of the condition of the colonial posses- sions of Portugal, and endeavour to see whether Germany and Britain together cannot show the Portuguese that it would be very much in their own interests and in the interests of the civilized world to deal with the occupancy of those colonial possessions. And here let us say in parenthesis that what we are going to suggest must not be taken in any case as an attempt to buy off German enmity by endowing her with somebody else's property. A proposal inspired by such a spirit would not only be predatory but useless. Any attempt to bribe Germany into taking a less aggressive policy towards us must be doomed to failure. We tried it in effect though not in name when we ceded Heligoland to Germany. Look at the result. Ever since that cession, instead of our relations becoming better with Germany, they have steadily grown worse. We may make rearrangements of territory in various parts of the world with Germany on their merits, but there could be nothing more foolish than the notion that we can lay Germany under an obligation to us and- so bribe her into a concilia- tory and pleasant mood. Nations no more than individuals are won by such tactics as these. But though we must keep our eyes open to this fact, and though we must not attempt to purchase German goodwill, these thoroughly sound considerations must not prevent us from doing what on other grounds is wise and sensible. We must not refuse to do something that is good in itself for fear that it may be taken as a bribe to Germany. That is a kind of inverted wisdom, to pursue which would be most ridiculous.

Personally we wish well to Portugal, though we know of course that the Portuguese will tell us that this cannot be true because we have attacked Portuguese slavery and have protested against the treatment of the Royalist prisoners by the Portuguese Republic. Nevertheless, we not only wish Portugal well and want to see her people happy, but we also wish well to the Portuguese Republic,

and would like beyond measure to see a system of sound and reasonable self-government established in another Latin

country. In our opinion it is most important in the

general cause of freedom for the southern races to prove themselves capable of decent self-government. We want

neither the monarchical nor the republican idea to hold a monopoly, but to see each system represented, and well represented, in Europe. Now the evils which the Portu-

guese people are at present suffering from in a high degree are poverty and that want of internal develop- ment which prevents growth and tends to stereotype the material misery and spiritual degradation of the people. It would be speaking much too mildly to say that the social and political conditions in Portugal as a whole are not only no better but probably worse than they were in the sixteenth century. Portugal, with its fine and healthy climate and its beautiful natural scenery,

might be one of the paradises of the world. Instead of that the condition of its people is often wretched almost beyond description. You could not find a more terrible contrast than that between the inhabitants of the Republic: of Portugal and of the Republic of Switzerland, though the two countries are about equal in population. We do not want to be offensive, but it is to be feared that the eighteenth-century expression—" a population sunk in. misery and ignorance "—only too well fits the Portugal of to-day. Yet all observers are agreed that the Portu- guese peasant has many excellent qualities, and indeed that the population of Portugal as a whole is sound, or at any rate capable of regeneration. Original sin is not the explanation of Portuguese decadence, but something much simpler—Portuguese poverty. That poverty may have come originally from the want of energy and enterprise of the population, but at any rate now, as so often happens, it is wrecking the nation and is the cause of that of which it may originally have been the effect. Poverty has led to very high and very wasteful taxation, and this high and wasteful taxation, which is quite as bad now, although it is called by different names, as it was under the Monarchy, is eating out the vitals of the nation. It might have been supposed that because Portugal has so vast an Empire, con- taining such enormous natural riches, the Portuguese colonies would have added to the resources of the Motherland and redeemed them. That, however, is not the

case. Portugal cannot provide men capable of developing and making the best of her Colonial Empire, and yet she is too jealous or too lazy or too timid to employ men of other races on the task. The consequence is that instead of the Portuguese colonies being a help, they are positively a drag upon Portugal. Except for the small islands in the South Atlantic, which are really part of Portugal, and in some ways the most flourishing part, the Portuguese colonies in East and West Africa are for the most part in a condition of hopeless decadence. Through them stalks the grim shadow of slavery, and not merely of predial slavery in the plantations, but what is even worse, of slave- hunting. Portugal does not only carry on a system of home-bred slaves—we are of course well aware that a.

slave is never called a slave in Portuguese Africa—but also of manufacturing slaves by getting them from other countries or by snaring them and enslaving them in the hinterland of the Portuguese colonies—places coloured the Portuguese colour on the map, but which know nothing of Portugal and Portuguese administration except the encouragement afforded to man-hunting, woman-hunting,

and child-hunting. The strain of Portuguese administra- tion, though we admit that Portugal has often tried hard to remedy the condition of her colonies—is too great for

her. She not only gets nothing substantial out of them, but she is positively exhausted thereby-, morally and materially. If she tries reform, the persons who would find the reforms inconvenient, like the slave-hunters and the slave-owners, threaten her that if she dares to proceed with the reforms they will either free themselves from her or overturn the existing Government in Lisbon and introduce another. We say then without fear or hesitation that if Portugal could by a magic stroke get rid of her colonies, she would be thereby infinitely better off, even if she obtained no quid pro quo or payment for those colonies.

Now we suggest in the interests of Portugal, in the interests of the Portuguese colonies, and in the general: interests of civilization and humanity, and most of all in order to do something substantial towards putting an end to slavery in Africa, that some arrangement should be come to between Germany and Britain, who are the neighbours of Portugal's most important possessions, for enabling Portugal to disencumber herself from the dead albatross which evil fate has hung round her neck. The proper compensation to give to Portugal is, of course, not other territory but a money compensation. That money com- pensation also, to do good to Portugal, ought not to be in the form of a capital sum down, because the possession of so large a capitalized sum of money would be almost certain to demoralize a small country and to be misapplied or got rid of. What would benefit Portugal most would be a considerable annual sum paid into her coffers, which would enable her to reduce her taxation and to improve and develop the Mother Country and its island departments, i.e., the Azores, Madeira, and the Cape Verde Islands. These considerations point clearly to the fact that if any friendly advice—and we are not asking for anything more at present—should be given by Germany and Britain jointly in regard to the Portuguese colonial possessions, that advice should be that Portugal should lease her colonial possessions in perpetuity to other Powers in consideration of fixed annual rents to be mutually agreed on. For ourselves we believe that it would be greatly to the advantage of Portugal to make a clean sweep not only of all her possessions in Africa, but also of Goa, Macao, and Timor.

For the moment, however, we will only deal with Portu- gal's possessions on the African mainland. We will begin at the north-west corner of Africa and work down the west coast and then up the east. Portuguese Guinea, which is entirely enclosed on the land side by French possessions, should naturally be leased by France, together with the archipelago of Bissagos. The estimated revenue is something like £70,000 a year. If France were to pay £30,000 a year as rent, the bargain would not be a bad one for Portugal. Let us assume that San Thome and Principe and the whole of Angola would go to Germany. It would not be unreasonable that if Germany took a lease of these western colonies she should pay £230,000 a year. And here we may remark that any Power taking a Portuguese colony on a lease should at once bind itself to put an end to the condition of slavery, or contract labour partaking of slavery, and also, of course, to all slave- hunting or kidnapping. Under this arrangement Germany would become possessed of a tremendous African Empire. We come now to East Africa. Here is the only place where Britain need or should make any claim to obtain a lease of any portion of Portuguese territory. Under the award by which Delagoa Bay was given to Portugal rather than to Britain, who claimed it, it was stipulated that if Portugal ever parted with the subject-matter of the award, she must offer the territory in question to Britain. Since that time it is understood that a private treaty has been made with Germany, which in effect is a hypothetical partition of Portuguese East Africa. The portion which under that treaty is secured as withi n the sphere of British influence should be secured to Britain on a lease, and the rest should go to Germany. In this case an annual payment of £200,000 a year by Britain and of £300,000 by Germany might be a reasonable sum. Portugal, by getting rid of her Colonial Empire, might thus be endowed with something like £800,000 a year ( plus a sum for Government assets such as buildings, &c.), a sum which ought not only to put an end to her annual deficit and leave her a surplus, but which might, under a wise system, be used to get rid of the Portuguese National Debt. We must not forget to point out, however, that the figures given above do not pretend in any way to be final or based upon expert calculations. They are intended merely as a basis of argument and for purposes of illustration, and very likely would on examination be found to be quite inadmissible. In any case, the possession of a con- siderable sum of money paid quarterly in cash ought to be, and must be, of incalculable value to Portugal. Remember, there is no reason why Portugal's trade with her old colonies should not go on as much as ever, for in all probability the leasing Powers would be quite willing to give reasonably favourable terms to Portuguese traders. That the actual merchants on the spot would benefit by the tremendous development conse: quent upon virtual possession by Germany, Britain, and France is obvious.

It will be said, no doubt, that our proposal is all very well as far as Germany is concerned, but why should Britain make herself the enemy of Portugal by suggesting an arrangement under which we shall benefit so little and Germany on so tremendous a scale ? Our answer is that though, as we have said, we do not want to buy off German enmity, we do feel that there is something eminently reasonable and right in Germany wishing to try her hand at colonial expansion, and we want to see her endowed, as she would be under this lease, with what is perhaps the best opportunity for expansion which the world now affords. Portuguese West Africa and the larger half of Portuguese East Africa would give Germany an African Empire on a tremendous scale. Probably she would not find its development quite as easy or as profitable as some of her people imagine, but at any rate she would have what she desires, a great task for a great people. That we should benefit directly or materially we do not suggest. We are not proposing anything that would benefit Britain. What we are proposing is something that would benefit Portugal in the long run, but, still more, would benefit humanity and free Africa, from the curse of slavery. We, of course, make no pretence that this last is not our main object. We want to do something to stop slavery, and do away with the horrors of slave-hunting which the weakness of Portugal has allowed to grow up, and we are quite content to pay the price in the way of increasing Germany's power and influence—provided, of course, that that increase in power and influence would not be a serious damage to Britain, and on this point we have no misgivings.

Those who go into a court of justice must go in with clean hands. We should not go into the court of the world with clean hands if all the time, when we asked for the abolition of Portuguese slavery, we really meant to enrich ourselves at the expense of Portugal. It is because we do not want Portuguese territory that we are in so favourable a position to propose this leasing of the Portuguese Empire, which, as we have said, will first and foremost be an enormous blessing to the people of Portugal, and which, if properly worked by the present Republican Govern- ment, should establish the Republic on a firm basis, the basis of sound finance and low taxation. No doubt there might be a little grumbling by Portugal at having to get rid of her colonies, but that would soon pass away if the people of Portugal were feeling that not only was their taxation very greatly reduced but that schemes of internal development in the way of roads, railways, and so forth were coming to maturity throughout the country. Good and successful financial administration based upon the tributes which the leases would yield should soon place the Republic above all possible risks of a reactionary movement.