THE TANGLED BALKANS
By ROBERT POWELL
THE unconditional surrender of Italy has been received with fearful expectations in the Balkans, where it is assumed that Anglo-American landings will take place as soon as the necessary preparations are completed. Though these must be regarded primarily as the concern of the military authorities, it is a mistake to ignore the valuable contribution which political preparedness can make to the defeat of the enemy. Unfortunately, the United Nations, which have so often in their proclamations appealed to democracy and the will of the people, have hitherto failed to inspire the masses with a strong desire to dare all and revolt. In Italy our success was the result of a diplomatic short-cut and an avoidance of any appeal to popular forces and presumably it is by similar means that we hope to make peace in the Balkans, if only the necessary Badoglios are at hand to play their parts. Such a policy can bring about a series of armistices, but it certainly will not produce the necessary basis for a lasting peace. Even a little knowledge of Balkan conditions is sufficient to compel recog- nition of the fact that the struggle which is going on in those countries concerns not merely political or territorial problems, but also grave socio-economic issues.
Most Englishmen probably imagine that the United Nations—or more explicitly, Britain and the United States—will be welcomed everywhere as heaven-sent deliverers. But this is only true to the extent that they come as the harbingers of real social changes and will supply the dynamic for the much-talked-of New Order. The Balkan peoples themselves know that only a much closer under- standing between this country and Russia can ensure peace in south- east Europe. While diplomats are talking about spheres of influence in that part of the continent, the peoples themselves are mainly concerned that Britain and Soviet Russia should work out plans which will not only prevent a repetition of German domination but also be the guarantor of strong independent existence for even the smallest of these States in the future. This excludes the imposition from without of any particular system, not only by Russia but also by Britain. The recent emphatic declaration of the Greeks, both inside Greece and in Cairo, that they themselves intend to decide the form of government of their new State, and the reaction inside Yugoslavia itself to the Yugoslav Government of officials under Pourich, which is now leaving this country for Cairo, should be a warning that any attempt to interfere with a Balkan State's domestic affairs would damage British prestige in the Balkans disastrously.
This is the background against which the peoples of the Balkans view the situation today. The Governments of the hostile States, which are either quisling or dictatorial Governments and in each case satellites of Germany, naturally have other ideas. They are
today no more disposed to yield to the demands of the United Nations than they were some months, ago—except to the extent that they now know that Germany cannot win this war, and so they must stampede to the victorious side, in the hope of saving the maximum from the wreckage. Hungary and Bulgaria are good examples of this policy. Both of them want peace, but with the minimum sacrifice of territorial acquisitions. Both are determined to defend their frontiers and to keep war as far from them as possible. The Bulgarian paper, Zora, recently stated the position very plainly: " Germany has kept her power unbroken mainly because for nearly four years she has been waging war on foreign soil—that of both friends and foes." And only now, as they see this no longer possible, do the satellite Governments begin to look for a cheap peace.
Meanwhile, the Germans have not been idle in the Balkans. Faced with the problem of replacing the Italian garrisons by local troops, they have fallen back on the old trick of tempting their ambitious satellites with offers of new territory or of pseudo- independence. They have persuaded the Croats to accept the defence of Dalmatia by encouraging them to incorporate this part of the Adriatic littoral in Croatia. In the same way Montenegro has been offered its independence, as well as Albania. Radio Bel- grade, in an appeal in Albanian, on September 9th, declared: " Men of the legendary mountains, Italy who has robbed you has betrayed us ; but from now on, nothing will endanger your inde- pendence. . . . Help us to protect your coast from invasion."
The sudden death of Boris of Bulgaria was followed by internal German diplomatic pressure and military blackmail which has resulted in the first victory going to Berlin. The new Regency Council consists of men who will obey German orders. Filov, the former Premier, is a weak man ; Prince Kyril is a pro-German who owes to the Nazis the restoration of his estates in Czechoslovakia and a huge fortune made as representative of German heavy industry in th- Balkans ; while General Mihov did part of his military training in Germany. With a non-committal Premier, the Germans have gone far towards ensuring their own influence in high places. But none know better than they that this does not mean controlling the Bulgar nation, which is still strongly pro- Russian, and that even Boris dared not break off diplomatic relations with the U.S.S.R., so that even today there is a Soviet legation in Sofia. Moreover, while the older officers of the Bulgarian army are monarchist and pro-German, many of the younger ones are members of the Military League, which is said to be republican and pro-Russian. It also remains to be seen what part may be played in any open revolt by the powerful Officers Reserve Corps.
In Yugoslavia, the Germans have met with the greatest resistance. The guerilla forces, operating under General Mihailovich, and the Partisans under " Tito," continue to harass the invader, and if reports that these two forces are now co-operating, and that they are being supplied with weapons, are correct, then the Germans will find them an even greater menace, especially if they are joined by disbanded Italian troops. As to Greece, the guerillas have shown their ability to carry out sabotage on a large scale throughout all parts of the country, especially in the Epirus region towards the Albanian frontier, where they have long been in control. The Greek population has continued to resist despite hunger and suffering, and nowhere will there be a greater readiness to sacrifice when the proper moment arrives. But the Greeks, as has already been pointed out, have made it clear that they intend to settle matters in the Greece of tomorrow after their own fashion, and look to us to give practical proof of our belief in the right of national self-determination. To Rumania, the fall of Italy was certainly a serious blow. But that country, already bled white on the Eastern Front, is now concerned to get out of the war as soon as possible, fearing not only Russian anger and Russian arms, but also possible Hungarian attempts to incorporate the whole of Transylvania within Hungary.
The Balkans are certainly longing for peace ; but- as yet the United Nations have not provided the inspiration which will make them risk all to satisfy that longing.
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