NORTHERN IRELAND

The Paisley phenomenon

MARTIN WALLACE

Belfasi—Bannside is a typical Ulster rural constituency, a mixture of modest farms and ‘illages with tongue-tripping names like Ahoghill, Portglenone and Rasharkin. A year ago its MP was the Unionist Prime Minister of Northern Ireland. Captain Terence O'Neill, a man still striving to liberalise his party and province. This week, if the bookmakers and most of the political commentators are right, its MP will be the Rev Ian Paisley, O'Neill's most formidable enemy.

It is a typical constituency. and a more typical representative would be the Unionist candidate in this week's by-election, Dr Bolton Minford. Dr Minford is what would once have been described as a 'good solid party man'. He is an indifferent speaker, but no worse than most of the mediocrities who dominate the Unionist back benches at Stor- mont and occasionally find their way into office. But O'Neill split his party down the middle, and the disorders of last August have forced Unionists to choose between sup- porting the policies of Major Chichester- Clark (heavily overshadowed by the British government) and taking what seems to be the UDI route of Mr William Craig. the former Home Minister, and Mr Paisley.

O'Neill's last act, as he headed for the more civilised atmosphere of the House of Lords, was to offer Mr Paisley a second chance to win Bannside. He could hardly have done his party a greater disservice, for the only interpretation of a Paisley victory at this time is that—if the government called a general election—it could not command electoral support for its reforms. A Paisley victory on Thursday would undermine what little authority and conviction the government still retains, and Major Chichester-Clak's leadership would soon come in question. It would give Mr Craig new ammunition in his campaign for stronger government—last week he advised the Premier to 'pack up your bags and get back to your farm'—and he could hope to win over some of the right- wing Unionist MPS who were cajoled into supporting the recent vote of confidence at Stormont.

Of course, Dr Minford may win. O'Neill's majority was over 1,400 in the 1969 general election (about 8.5 per cent of the poll) so Paisley still has to make up a good deal of ground. The Unionist machine must be in better condition this time—O'Neill had always previously been unopposed—and Minford is not personally disliked in the way that O'Neill often was by some of his con- stituents. The former Premier largely fought his campaign from Stormont Castle, and neglected the groundwork in his own con- stituency; Minford is a busy man around the local associations. An increased Unionist majority would be just the tonic the govern- ment needs; a reduced majority would still be encouraging, for Paisley is recognised as a charismatic figure with vote-gathering Powers that no other right-wing Protestant possesses.

Still, the undoubted feeling inside the con- stituency and outside it is that Paisley's hour has come. Certainly, he is well organised, and his travelling circus gives an impression of steamrolling all opposition. He draws big crowds as his bands play Orange tunes, and

the booming voice excoriates the govern- ment, the head of the RUC, Sir Arthur Young ('Softly Softly') and General Sir Ian Freeland ('1 almost said Sir Ian Free-State'). It is partly a religious crusade, and 'God Save the Queen' is accompanied by '0 God Our Help in Ages Past'. The Union Jack floats above, the great Lambeg drums stir the tribal passions, and the acolytes parade in the sashes of Paisley's own Ulster Constitution Defence Committee.

Many people felt that, if the 1969 election campaign had lasted a few weeks longer, Paisley would have won Bannside. A year has passed, and much that has happened since has played into his hands. Ulster Protestants were deeply divided over the modest reforms O'Neill sought, and much more has been forced on them since then; there is no evidence that the August disturbances shocked the mass of voters into accepting the idea of revolutionary changes. Despite all assurances, it is patently obvious that normal policing has not returned to some Catholic areas of Belfast and Londonderry, and both troops and police move very warily when confronted with militant Catholics.

The Paisley campaign has certainly been helped by General Freeland's hint that British troops might be withdrawn from Northern Ireland, and by the recent riots in the Springfield area of Belfast. The govern- ment first insisted that the B Specials would not be disbanded, then justified the disband- ment (recommended by Lord Hunt's com- mittee) on the grounds that the province's security would be preserved by troops and the new auxiliary Ulster Defence Regiment. When Mr Paisley calls for the return of the B Specials, he is calling for a defence force under the direct control of the Northern Ireland government and not subject to the dictation of untrustworthy British politicians. His intelligence network is good, and when he announces that the B Specials' arms have been sent to England it makes more impact than the subsequent government explanation that they are being serviced there.

The moderate civil rights movement in Northern Ireland has virtually ground to a halt, for moderates are prepared to wait for the implementation of reforms, and do not want the community torn apart by further violence. So the more militant Republican elements are beginning to make the running. Protestants who would once have sym- pathised with Catholics who staged orderly marches in support of reasonable demands—Catholics who were prepared to work within the existing constitutional framework—condemn unreservedly the young Catholic hooligans of the Springfield riots. Mr Paisley will no doubt persuade

some voters that the civil rights movement Was an IRA plot all along.

There is, of course, a third candidate—a social worker, Mr Patrick McHugh. He comes from Lincolnshire, is a Catholic, served in the British Army, and stands (with- out hope, everyone agrees) for the Northern Ireland Labour party. He may get Catholic votes —as Michael Farrell. the People's Democracy leader, did in last year's three- cornered contest —but many people feel that Paisley is just as likely to get Catholic sup- port. The argument is that Republicans (there is a strong Republican tradition around Lough Neagh) will vote for Paisley in the hope that his election will hasten the downfall of Stormont and thus bring nearer a united Ireland.

Paisley will also get votes from Pro- testants who are registering their discontent with the Unionist administration rather than supporting the Free Presbyterian Moderator's wildest ideas. This kind of vote has been cast in Northern Ireland before, and it has never made ground for long against official Unionism and the Protestant instinct to close the ranks in time of stress. Had Lord O'Neill been persuaded to retain his seat until the next general election, perhaps in three years' time, his party might have had a better chance of regaining its control of the Protestant vote (there is no bar to sitting at both Stormont and what Mr Paisley calls 'the House of Frauds').

Another possibility is that Mr Paisley will soon be joining Lord O'Neill at Westminster( If he wins Bannside (or even if he loses), he may be tempted to go for a Westminster seat. It would probably be East Belfast, where demoralised shipyard workers might well see him as their saviour.

What is certain is that Stormont govern- ment's credibility is very much at stake in Bannside. Mr Paisley has aimed his cam- paign almost as directly at Major Chichester- Clark as he aimed his 1969 campaign at O'Neill. and even invited the Premier to hand-pick an audience before which they could debate the issues. The invitation was turned down, of course, but government ministers have been turning up nightly to speak in support of Dr Minford. (One, a cousin of the candidate, apparently mislaid his liberal image by speaking of a Protestant parliament for a Protestant people, but it turned out that he had really meant a pro- gressive parliament for a prosperous people.) Even the last Prime Minister but one. Lord Brookeborough. has been resurrected in a last-minute advertisement urging support for the official candidate and 'sound, sensible Unionism'.

Of course a Paisley win can be described as a one-off victory for an exceptional can- didate. though the government recognises the effect it would have on British opinion.

So to be fair the result should be read alongside the result of the South Antrim by-election on the same day. A

win for Paisley's fellow cleric. the Rev William Beattie. would in a sense be a more damaging expression of public opinion.

Similarly, a win for the independent, Mr David Corkey, would show that the pro-

O'Neill moderates of 1969 are not yet

eclipsed. But here the predicted victory is the former Minister of Health and Social Services. Mr William Morgan. He was anti- O'Neill. but now supports the more sweeping reforms of the Chichester-Clark ad-

ministration. He is, in short. a suitable sym- bol of the present muddled condition of tin Unionist party,