Confrontation in dockland
Any new government would wince at the prospect of a national dock strike within a month of assuming office. On the simple practical level, a major clash of this nature catches new ministers less than fully prepared and absorbs time and energy which would have been more con- veniently spent on mastering the intricacies of new departments. In wider political terms, such an episode is likely to end abruptly and before time the public's un- critical postelection mood. Worst of all, the economic effects of a lengthy stoppage in the docks could be crippling and could put a blight on the country's prospects for a long time to come. There were, in short, many widespread reasons for heartfelt ex- pressions of relief when the dockers' representatives agreed on Monday night to defer the strike if they could.
But perhaps the strongest reason for satisfaction (even if mingled with anxiety over the dockers' reactions) was simply that one more massively inflationary wage settlement had not been reached. Al- though, as his issue of the SPECTATOR goes to press, the strike has not been called off, it can be plainly seen that the employers were right to _refuse to give ground on the unions' claim for an increase in the basic time rate from £11 ls 8d a week to £20. They argued throughout the talks that to give way on this would jeopardise the modernisation of the wages structure which is now going ahead in the major ports. This would have been bad enough. From the national point of view, a major inflationary pay award to the dockers would have been even worse, through giving the wage-price spiral another omin- ous twist at a time when the first priority for the country is to get the spiral under firm control.
Under Mr Robert Carr's chairmanship —and whatever happens next, the nego- tiations have been somethine of a triumph for him, just as they have beena severe setback for Mr Jack Jones of the Trans- port Union—the employers came up with a carefully framed offer which will in fact add only about 7 per cent to the wages bill instead of the estimated 50 per cent of the original claim. And if they have successfully resisted the temptation to buy peace at an extortionate price, the Gov- ernment may yet have cause to be grate- ful that this difficult patch cropped up so early in its lifetime. An inflationary settle- ment this week would have been im- mensely damaging, with its plain implica- tion that for all the talk of attacking inflation, life under the new regime was not really so very different from life under the old. Its opposite could be an im- portant landmark.
The dispute has to be seen in the con- text of the 'serious economic trouble' which Mr Macleod predicted before 18 June and which he has subsequently re- defined. He eschewed the word 'crisis'. rightly no doubt for one with responsi- bility for the economy, although others not so encumbered might not feel the word wholly inappropriate. The down- ward trend in the trade figures issued this week emphasises the point. The value of money is slipping downhill, and at a rate which can fairly be called alarming: a further run of inflationary wage settle- ments must accelerate this gadarene pro- cess. Already Britain has been recording the highest rate of wage increase for twenty years, although output is stagna- ting and unemployment remains high. The unpleasantness of the situation has been to some extent masked (although, of course, apparent in a general way to any- one who has to make regular purchases at regularly increasing prices) by the bal- ance of payments surplus which Mr Jenkins bequeathed to the present eov- _ ernment, since it has been a matter of routine for economic crises in our recent history to be coupled with severe difficul- ties over the balance of payments. The new kind of economic trouble, being less familiar, is less recognisable.
Given all this, plus a government dedi- cated to arresting the inflationary gallop. it is not surprising that the dockers' leaders have betrayed a certain hesitancy about going on with their strike at this moment. They know that the issue chosen is not an impressive one. Dockers today are far from being the downtrodden toilers of folk memory; their average earnings nationally are almost £36 a week, and there are plenty whose-weekly pay is at least comparable with that of, say, Mem- bers of Parliament. One complexity is that militant elements in the docks are unen- thusiastic about -the 'modernisation' pro, gramme anyhow. They regret the passing of the antiquated system of piecework pay, with its infinitely proliferating pat- tern of negotiations and opportunities for nudging rates upwards; in London alone, thousands of joint meetings are held each week to settle arguments over piecework rates. No wonder dockers' pay has become notorious as an example of uncontrolled wage drift. But for all that, the Devlin modernisation proposals do offer a genuine prospect of advance, with an entirely new degreo of security of income.
It is interesting to speculate what might have happened if the Tories' promised reforms, providing for a cooling-off period and a workers' ballot in disputes of this importance, had already been passed into law. Last weekend's negotia- tions would presumably have had to wait until the eleventh hour of the fifty-ninth day of the cooling-off period: which prompts the thought that this would have given the militants a good deal more time to whip up feeling among what is one of the country's most volatile groups of workers. Obviously the cooling-off period must not automatically be employed, in every set of conditions, in spite of its obvious attractions in many circum- stances.
Mr Carr has paid his tribute to the patience with which the negotiations were conducted, which is at least one hopeful sign even if the patience fails to spread downwards. And the manner in which Mr Carr played his own part is hopeful, too. suggesting that he may well prove to be one of the less widely predicted strengths of Mr Heath's administration. At least the manner of the new Government's hand- ling of the matter has been refreshingly cool and dispassionate, with Mr Carr dis- playing his talents as conciliator and Mr Heath remaining on the sidelines and trusting him to get on with his job. But will Mr Heath continue to stand on the sidelines if the situation deteriorates abruptly as the week proceeds? He would probably be well advised to do so.
There are even political dividends to be drawn from a dock strike. grim though that may sound. If such a strike is inevit- able anyway, then the strong balance of payments makes this as good a time as any to face it. The public, having judged the employers' offer for themselves, will have little sympathy for a militant de- monstration. And the climate for trade union reform would be improved. They are not dividends which any sane politi- cian would wish to collect in quite this way: but in such a messy situation, it is only sensible to look for potential profits as well as certain losses.
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